China's external economic strategy is undergoing a longer-term shift towards a "corridor-hedging logic," recognizing that different trade routes offer varying utility under diverse geopolitical conditions. This adjustment, accelerated by events like the Iran war and potential disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, moves beyond viewing connectivity as a single integrated system.
While maritime trade remains dominant due to its scale, efficiency, and institutional depth, China is complementing this with selectively developed overland and semi-overland corridors. These alternative routes are designed to reduce exposure to chokepoint disruptions, such as those in the Strait of Malacca, which currently concentrate a large share of Gulf crude destined for East Asia. Iran occupies a structurally important but politically constrained position as a conditional transit space in this fragmented Eurasian connectivity landscape, highlighting China's enduring reliance on a small number of highly concentrated maritime passageways despite supply source diversification.
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