China's techno-industrial policy under Xi Jinping has evolved into a centralized, security-linked, and finance-driven system, prioritizing national security, technological self-reliance, and frontier leadership over growth. This system operates via five channels and 18 instruments, enabling the Party-state to define priorities, mobilize resources, discipline firms, and project arrangements abroad.
While achieving gains in technological capabilities and supply chain resilience, it creates tensions, including risks of suppressing local experimentation and degrading economic decision-making. Post-2021–2022, fiscal constraints are shifting Beijing from direct spending to mandates like guidance funds and targeted credit, spreading industrial policy costs. The "investor state" faces limits from corruption and short-termism. Party-state corporate control has deepened, steering private firms through regulation and state stakes. Externally, the Belt and Road Initiative aligns outbound investment with domestic industrial priorities. This strategy generates global friction, as China's depreciating real effective exchange rate and manufacturing output exceeding domestic demand may invite increased tariffs and trade remedies.
No comments:
Post a Comment