China's potential recovery of the Russian Far East coast, including Vladivostok, could bypass the West's island chain containment strategy, granting Beijing free access to the Pacific. This scenario, increasingly plausible as Russia weakens and depends more on China, would expose Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to simultaneous strategic threats across their defenses, undersea cables, and sea routes.
Repossession would also provide China maritime access to the Arctic and control over critical mineral deposits vital for the global technology supply chain. China lost over 1 million square km of Pacific coastline to Russia in 1858 and 1860, a claim Beijing has never renounced. Chinese maps as recently as 2023 labeled Vladivostok with its Chinese name, prompting Moscow's protests. This move would anchor China's Northern Sea Route strategy, reducing dependence on Russian goodwill and cementing Xi Jinping's historical legacy.
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