Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping resumed high-level political engagement in October 2024 and August–September 2025, marking a new chapter in India-China relations after a five-year border standoff. This shift follows India's previous position that broader ties were contingent on resolving border issues, which saw significant progress between 2020 and 2024.
India's engagement with China is primarily driven by four imperatives: first, securing and managing the disputed border to maintain peace and tranquility; second, addressing economic necessities by securing supply chains, reducing trade vulnerabilities, and attracting capital and technological investment; third, seeking a new modus vivendi and political understanding with Beijing; and fourth, responding to geopolitical pressures from a changing international order, particularly U.S. foreign policy shifts. Both nations acknowledge systemic distrust but are pursuing "people-centric steps" like resuming the Kailash Mansarovar pilgrimage, border trade, direct flights, and various exchanges to rebuild confidence. The paper aims to assess the likelihood of India's efforts succeeding based on China's geopolitical outlook and appetite for engagement.
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