The 2019 drone and cruise missile attack on Saudi Aramco, attributed to Iran, exposed the Iranian regime's radical nature and the absence of a meaningful American response, prompting Saudi Arabia to seek alternatives to US deterrence. This watershed event fostered the Abraham Accords and accelerated Saudi-Israel rapprochement.
The current US-Iran ceasefire, though fragile, creates a similar strategic reassessment across the Gulf, as it leaves major threats—Iranian funding, missile capabilities, and 60% enriched uranium stockpiles—unresolved. Gulf states are troubled by this agreement, highlighting a fundamental gap in interests with the United States. Israel's value as a proactive regional actor becomes clearer, sharing common interests with Gulf states in confronting the “Iranian octopus.” Israel demonstrated military reach, intelligence depth, and willingness to act, positioning itself as a central strategic asset. This presents an opportunity for Israel to deepen strategic partnerships in security, military, and intelligence, and to expand the Abraham Accords to Saudi Arabia. Quiet coordination with Jordan and Iraq in air defense and intelligence sharing is also possible. Iran's severe threat necessitates non-American strategic insurance.
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