The Iran War and Central Asia’s New Trade Geography

National Interest  |  Fatemeh Aman

The Iran War has forced regional governments across South and Central Asia to fundamentally restructure their trade geography, prioritizing political reliability and corridor resilience over mere commercial efficiency. This strategic shift elevates geopolitical risk to a primary planning variable, transforming transport corridors into critical national security assets.

Historically, regional connectivity initiatives like the International North-South Transport Corridor and the Chabahar port were evaluated through transit times and infrastructure quality. However, recent military escalations and shipping disruptions have exposed the vulnerability of relying on single transit routes. Consequently, nations are adopting a financial portfolio approach to infrastructure, investing in overlapping alternatives such as the Middle Corridor and the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan railway. This diversification strategy ensures that trade flows can withstand sudden border closures or sanctions, shifting the ultimate goal of regional connectivity from maximizing speed to guaranteeing operational continuity during crises.

Comment

New Delhi's persistent capital allocation to the Chabahar port project bypasses the geographical barrier imposed by Pakistan's denial of overland transit rights. While this maritime-overland route offers India direct access to Central Asian markets, its operational viability remains hostage to volatile Iranian security dynamics and potential secondary sanctions. This exposure forces a delicate balancing act as India simultaneously pursues the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor to distribute its geopolitical transit risks.

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