16 January 2026

Choke Points: Critical Minerals and Irregular Warfare in the Gray Zone


“For the last decade, the West has slowly awakened to the reality of resource insecurity. We read breathless headlines about the ‘scramble for Africa’ and the rush to stake claims on lithium deposits in the Nevada desert. But this awakening has birthed a dangerous strategic error—what I term ‘The Mining Fallacy.’ This is the mistaken belief that “resource security” is synonymous with ‘access to mines’…This is a fatal oversimplification.”

“The true center of gravity in modern economic warfare is not the mine. It’s the refinery…By controlling between 85% and 90% of the world’s processing capacity for rare earths, Beijing has constructed a “kill switch” for Western industrial and defense supply chains.”

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