How closer China-US ties – and more Xi-Trump summits – could work in Iran’s favour

South China Morning Post | Fan Chen

Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump established enhanced diplomatic alignment on Iran during September 2026 talks in Washington, endorsing commitments against nuclear proliferation and tolling on international waterways. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly welcomed Beijing’s calls for US-Iran dialogue as the Middle East conflict entered its seventh month.

Beijing's high-level engagement with Washington provides Tehran an effective diplomatic channel during heightened regional friction. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi consulted Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi prior to the Washington summit to safeguard Iranian interests. Diplomacy remains stalled following Donald Trump's rejection of a Qatari-brokered proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Washington is preparing a third aircraft carrier deployment. Beijing balances critical energy security with its strategic ties to Tehran while avoiding direct military intervention. Further head-of-state summits scheduled at APEC in Shenzhen in November 2026 and the G20 in Miami in December 2026 create additional diplomatic avenues.

Comment

Beijing’s willingness to endorse joint statements with Washington regarding the Strait of Hormuz underscores a fundamental strategic trade-off between securing vital maritime energy corridors and preserving its diplomatic posture as a non-aligned partner to Tehran. While Chinese state-owned energy firms rely heavily on uninterrupted oil flows through the Persian Gulf, direct diplomatic pressure on Iran risks eroding Beijing’s positioning against Western hegemony in the Global South. This structural tension prevents China from leveraging its economic weight into a binding security guarantee for regional shipping.

Consequently, this diplomatic hedge forces Gulf energy producers and external powers to rely on the United States Fifth Fleet for physical maritime interdiction rather than Chinese naval escorts. The resulting posture limits Beijing's capacity to convert its commercial dominance into durable regional security architecture across the Western Indian Ocean.

Strategic Question for Discussion

Which carries greater long-term weight for Beijing in the Persian Gulf — preserving its diplomatic alignment with Tehran or securing energy transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and how does that calculus affect regional security reliance on the United States Fifth Fleet?

The available evidence points toward Beijing prioritising its broader anti-hegemonic alignment with Tehran over active maritime enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz. Because Chinese strategic planners remain unwilling to assume hard security burdens, Gulf energy stability will continue to depend on the deterrence provided by the United States Fifth Fleet. Consequently, Beijing's regional influence is likely to remain constrained to diplomatic facilitation rather than structural security leadership.

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