The Factors That Matter: A Formula for Understanding China’s Use of Force Calculus Over Taiwan

Asia Society Policy Institute | Lyle Morris

United States and Chinese military planners face an escalating cross-strait deterrence challenge as Beijing evaluates the dynamic variables governing a potential invasion of Taiwan. A People’s Liberation Army assault would activate United States Indo-Pacific Command operational plans under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, threatening Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company production facilities and causing global economic damage exceeding the 2008 financial crisis.

Chinese President Xi Jinping weighs these high-consequence external risks against core domestic determinants, notably People's Liberation Army combat readiness, post-2015 structural reforms, senior officer purges, and internal political stability. Strategic calculations are further altered by leadership dynamics involving Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te and United States President Donald Trump, alongside Taipei's perceived movement toward permanent separation from mainland control. Although Central Military Commission timeline benchmarks for 2027 push aggressive military modernization, severe sealift shortfalls and complex joint multi-domain command requirements introduce significant operational friction into any impending cross-strait amphibious operation.

Comment

The structural overhaul of the People's Liberation Army under the 2015 reforms centralised joint operational authority directly beneath the Central Military Commission Joint Operations Command Centre. Executing a cross-strait amphibious assault requires seamless multi-domain synchronisation across the Eastern Theater Command's land, naval, aviation, and Rocket Force elements. Systematic leadership purges within the Rocket Force and CMC staff disrupt the institutional trust necessary for decentralised mission command during high-tempo maritime operations. Operational success in a Taiwan contingency remains tightly coupled to whether theater commanders can retain decision velocity when primary communications nodes face heavy electronic disruption.

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