17 October 2026

Beyond A Legacy Of War: Integrating Mine Action Into Climate Security

Eurasia Review | Hana Manjušak, Barbara Magalhães Teixeira

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, and Poland withdrew from the 1997 Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention between late 2025 and 2026, while civilian landmine casualties reached a recent high of at least 6279 in 2024. These withdrawals reverse decades of compliance that destroyed over 55 million stockpiled mines across 30 states.

Environmental shifts such as floods and erosion continuously relocate buried ordnance, complicating clearance operations in conflict zones like Ukraine, Tajikistan, and South Sudan. In South Sudan specifically, landmines affect 661 livelihood sites while only 4 per cent of the national territory remains arable. Climate hazards shorten operational windows for demining teams while contamination simultaneously restricts disaster response and ecological management. Joint planning initiatives, such as Colombia pairing demining with native tree reforestation, demonstrate how shared data can mitigate intersecting risks.

Comment

The withdrawal of European border states from the 1997 Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention illustrates how immediate deterrence imperatives override long-term humanitarian norms in high-threat postures. Reintroducing static barrier doctrines along the eastern flank transforms natural terrain into active tactical zones where explosive remnants will persist long after geopolitical tensions recede. Unlike conventional fortifications, dense minefields interact unpredictably with regional hydrological shifts, as demonstrated by the displacement of ordnance following the 2023 destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in Kherson. Consequently, engineering units face severe friction when extreme weather events shorten operational clearance windows while simultaneously washing munitions into previously secured agricultural sectors.

Strategic Question for Discussion
How do shifting hydrological patterns in conflict zones complicate the operational calculus of border fortification when legacy minefields are repeatedly displaced by extreme weather events?
The available evidence indicates that seasonal flooding disperses unexploded ordnance far beyond mapped perimeters, rendering traditional clearance timelines obsolete. This dynamic forces engineering units into reactive remediation cycles that frequently outpace institutional clearance capacity.
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