21 November 2022

What Pelosi stepping down means for China relations

MATT BERG and LAWRENCE UKENYE

For more than three decades, Nancy Pelosi has cemented her status as a staunch opponent of the Chinese government. From being chased out of Tiananmen Square in 1991 to ignoring warnings to not visit Taiwan this year, the California congresswoman has made one thing clear:

No one can tell her what to do when it comes to China.

“If you cannot stand up for human rights in China because of commercial interests, you lose all moral authority to speak out for it in any place,” Pelosi told POLITICO in July.

But Pelosi stepped down from her historic post as speaker on Thursday, vowing to pass the torch to a new generation of leaders. After a long-time antagonistic relationship with the Chinese government, how will things change?

As House Minority Leader KEVIN McCARTHY sets his sights on replacing her, experts warn that even though policy toward China may not change much, relations may become even rockier than they have been.

“[Initially] I suspect some in China will breathe a sigh of relief,” ZACK COOPER, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told NatSec Daily. “But this will be short-lived,” as McCarthy ramps up the aggressive tactics with an expected trip to Taipei in the spring. China views Taiwan as a part of its country, even though the island nation’s government wants to remain independent.

The trip will likely trigger a fresh round of threats from President XI JINPING’s government, which warned of a ”very serious situation and grave consequences” before Pelosi visited Taiwan in August. China at the time launched a series of military actions and countermeasures, including halting relations with the U.S. on issues such as climate change and military ties.

President JOE BIDEN has worked somewhat successfully to repair those damaged contacts, meeting with Xi on the sidelines of the G-20 summit this week and focusing on creating a foundation for a relationship. With McCarthy in charge, though, relations between the two may strain again.

Along with the trip, McCarthy plans to form a special committee to challenge China on a cornucopia of issues from trade to national security to the origins of the coronavirus.

These moves will likely provoke Chinese leaders.

“We are looking at a much more dangerous deterioration of relations,” YUN SUN, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center in Washington, told Bloomberg.

But the antagonism follows in Pelosi’s footsteps, a bipartisan approach toward China that she has crafted ever since she introduced a resolution condemning the execution of those who peacefully protested in Tiananmen Square in 1989.

“He’s imitating Nancy,” former California Sen. BARBARA BOXER told NatSec Daily, referring to McCarthy’s planned trip to Taiwan. At the resolution’s press conference, Boxer stood beside Pelosi, who had served as a representative for only two years before introducing the legislation.

Broad support of U.S. policy toward China in recent years has been a testament to Pelosi’s effectiveness, Boxer said, adding that she has “shown unbelievable constant leadership on bringing human rights in China to the forefront of every foreign policy decision.”

“We cannot forget human rights, and that's why she’s been so effective,” Boxer said. “It’s unusual to have that kind of unanimity, and I see unanimity here around human rights in China.”

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