Are We Heading Toward World War III?

Francis P. Sempa

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The Second World War was the most destructive conflict in human history. When it was over, some sixty million people were dead. It featured the mass bombing of cities and civilians, the torture and murder of prisoners of war, starvation, genocide, and the use of atomic weapons. The peace that ended the war was imperfect. Joseph Stalin’s Soviet Union, which helped start the European phase of the war, was one of the victors, and its totalitarian realm expanded. China’s civil war continued, resulting in Mao Zedong’s communist conquest of the mainland. World War II gave birth to the nuclear age and the Cold War, with all of its “smaller” wars and crises. Winston Churchill, who led Great Britain to victory in the war, wrote afterward that “there never was a war more easy to stop than that which has just wrecked what was left of the world from the previous struggle.” He called World War II the “unnecessary war.”

The world hedges its bets on America

Ian Bremmer

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Since returning to the White House last January, Donald Trump has antagonized most of the world’s major governments in one form or another. In particular, he has targeted Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, most of Europe, Canada, and even Greenland for various forms of coercion, and his tariffs have set teeth on edge pretty much the world over. More importantly, the president has redefined what the global superpower will and will not do – and might redefine it all again sooner rather than later.

The result? When it comes to Washington, governments are hedging bets on the future of American power and what it might mean for them.

Some have more leverage than others to push back on Trump’s attempts at pressure. His interactions with those countries have often led to outcomes many call “TACO” – Trump Always Chickens Out. Those with less political and economic muscle cross the president at their peril. That’s the “FAFO” category – F Around and Find Out.

Detecting A ‘Dirty Bomb’: How Europeans Can Combat Radiological Threats – Analysis

Jacek Siewiera

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Earlier this month, reports emerged of drones allegedly carrying radioactive materials in central London. The incident is a timely reminder of the need for European states to guard against such threats—both for the harm these could cause but also for the psychological effect they can have on states and societies.

Great uncertainty—to put it lightly—remains around the future of Iran’s nuclear programme and its stockpiled fissile material. Debate has always focused on the prospect of a nuclear bomb. But especially in such a period of convulsive change, the same material could be used for other deadly purposes. The last official International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) assessments indicated that, as of June 2025, Iran held approximately 440kg of uranium-235 enriched up to 60%, alongside further quantities of lower enriched uranium.

The problem with Europe's Big Tech breakup: It’s still hooked

MATHIEU POLLET and ANOUK SCHLUNG

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Inside Amsterdam’s red-brick city hall, Alexander Scholtes, the official who spearheaded the Dutch capital’s push to break up with U.S. technology, looked down at his tablet.

How often does he still rely on Big Tech? “Right now, all the time,” he said, waving the device loaded with Microsoft software — an active reminder of a hard reality that stretches far beyond his city. European governments are actively trying — and struggling — to move away from American tech amid mounting fears that U.S. President Donald Trump could weaponize years of heavy reliance.

Canada in Europe? Geography, Law, and the Prospects of EU Membership

Matteo Vecchi

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The Union’s territorial configuration already extends far beyond the boundaries that commonly structure our political imagination and our mental maps: even a cursory look at Netherlands and French overseas territories shows how the EU’s reach already leans into the Pacific and other extra-European regions. In this scenario, the Union lives today in a “beyond the map” dimension that destabilizes any purely continental account of what counts as “Europe.” What it is important to consider, first and foremost, is the relationship between geography and law. 

The definition of territories, the impact law has upon them, and, conversely, the constraints that territorial facts impose on legal choices are issues that arise independently of – and in many respects prior to – any geopolitical analysis. When the Union determines who can become a member state, it does not simply draw lines on a map; it makes an interpretive choice about what should be treated, today, as “Europe.”

Europe Still Needs China Washington, Not Beijing, Is the Bigger Threat

Da Wei

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In 1969, with the Cultural Revolution raging at home and tensions rising abroad, Chinese leader Mao Zedong instructed four elder military leaders to study the relationships between China and the world’s two superpowers. Using Mao’s theoretical framework of “contradictions,” which states that the struggle between opposing forces is what drives history forward, they posited that the contradiction between the United States and the Soviet Union was greater than that between China and the Soviet Union, which in turn was greater than that between China and the United States.

Europe’s Tank Race Is Back—And NATO’s Eastern Flank Is Getting Much Harder for Russia

VLAD LITNAROVYCH

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Europe’s armored landscape in 2026 is moving away from Cold War-style mass and toward smaller but more combat-ready forces built around newer platforms, digital integration, and deployability, according to Army Recognition on April 12.

By total fleet size, Türkiye remains first with 2,381 tanks, followed by Greece with 1,385, while Poland currently fields about 897. But Army Recognition’s core point is that the real balance is changing beneath those numbers. That matters because not all tank fleets carry the same military value. Türkiye’s large inventory still relies heavily on older M48 and M60 variants, while Greece continues to field a sizable number of Leopard 1 tanks alongside more advanced Leopard 2 models.

Fast energy: How Europe can power the AI revolution and stay competitive

Alan Riley

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SummarySlow decision-making in Europe undermines the continent’s security, prosperity and political stability—from defence industrial output for Ukraine to exposure to hostile powers in energy and technology.​  global AI-driven surge in electricity demand is reshaping geopolitics, favouring states such as America and China that can rapidly expand power generation and grids. Europe risks becoming an energy-constrained AI follower.​

Europe faces structurally higher energy costs than the US and China, as well as grid bottlenecks, permitting delays and carbon prices that erode its competitiveness.​ It also has significant resource constraints.

Mind the gap: AI adoption in Europe and the US

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, David J. Deming, Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, and Jonas Jessen

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Surveys last spring and early this year show that U.S. workers are using artificial intelligence (AI) at a significantly higher rate than European workers, according to a paper discussed at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) conference on March 27.

“In 2026 we find that 43% of U.S. workers use AI for their job compared to 32% among European workers,” write the authors, Alexander Bick of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Adam Blandin of Vanderbilt University, David J. Deming of Harvard University, and Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln and Jonas Jessen of WZB Berlin Social Science Center.

Europe Cannot Sit Out the Iran War

Sophia Besch

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The United States has gone to war with Iran without consulting Europe. Yet President Donald Trump and his administration have sought to deflect blame for a faltering campaign by lashing out at NATO and accusing European leaders of shirking their alliance responsibilities by refusing to offer support. The charge does not hold. NATO imposes no obligation to back a war of choice, and Europe lacks any realistic means of reopening the Strait of Hormuz by force while hostilities continue.

At the same time, Europe cannot afford to stand aside. The war is already reshaping its security and economic outlook. Within days of the U.S.-Israeli strikes, an Iranian drone hit a UK Royal Air Force base in Cyprus, prompting coordinated European deployments; NATO intercepted missiles over Turkey, while European officials warned of rising terrorism risks and renewed refugee pressures. Disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz have raised the prospect of fuel shortages and rising costs across sectors from agriculture to aviation. Inflation has climbed to 2.5 percent, growth forecasts are being revised downward across Europe, and interest rates might be driven up. Slower growth, higher prices, and mounting migration pressures together risk fueling political instability across the continent.

Ukraine is losing the war: Implications for Europe

Tyyne Karjalainen

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Since President Trump’s re-election, Ukraine and its European allies have quietly scaled back their objectives in countering Russia’s aggression. They are preparing to accept shifting borders in Donbas, while demands for accountability for Russia’s war crimes and for Ukraine’s right to join alliances have also diminished. For Ukraine, the main problem is that there is no peace in sight. The prolonged war means that Ukraine remains outside not only NATO but also the EU. Ad hoc coalitions cannot replace the benefits that formal alliances and institutions provide.

The implications for Europe are manifold. Ukraine’s fate illustrates how regional and global powers are abandoning established international rules also on the European continent. European states are particularly vulnerable to this erosion, as their security strategies rely heavily on agreements and cooperative frameworks. mEuropean security has become increasingly intertwined with Ukraine’s security. Europe will suffer if Russia achieves its objectives or if Ukraine fails to recover from the war.

Europe’s Untapped Arsenal

Elina Ribakova

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Immediately after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in February 2022, Ukrainian leaders pleaded with their American and European partners to help protect the skies over their territory. NATO’s air defense systems could protect Ukraine’s civilians, troops, and infrastructure from Russian missiles, albeit with a hefty price tag and a risk of escalation. Western leaders declined.

Today, it is Ukraine’s military assistance that is in demand. In response to a joint attack by the United States and Israel in late February, Iran began firing hundreds of missiles and drones at U.S. partners across the Middle East. The

America is irreplaceable. Europe better start acting like it

Mark Sedwill

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Trump hosts European leaders including Ursula von der Leyen, Friedrich Merz and Emmanuel Macron in the Oval Office last summer Watching Donald Trump’s address about Iran while travelling in the Gulf this week, two aphorisms from another era of superpower and ideological rivalry came to mind.

The first, usually attributed to Napoleon, is: “Never interrupt your enemy when he’s making a mistake.” The second is ascribed to Lord Melbourne, Queen Victoria’s first Prime Minister: “What I want is men who will support me when I’m in the wrong. Any fool can support me when I’m in the right.”

Both feel uncomfortably relevant.

Start with Napoleon. The principal beneficiaries of Operation Epic Fury so far are not America, not Israel, not the Gulf states and certainly not Europe, but Russia and China. Even though Iran’s conventional military is being decimated and regional proxies defanged, both are providing intelligence for Iran’s missile and drone attacks.

Europe’s Untapped Arsenal Ukraine Has Forged the Defense Industry the Continent Desperately Needs

Elina Ribakova and Lucas Risinger

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Immediately after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in February 2022, Ukrainian leaders pleaded with their American and European partners to help protect the skies over their territory. NATO’s air defense systems could protect Ukraine’s civilians, troops, and infrastructure from Russian missiles, albeit with a hefty price tag and a risk of escalation. Western leaders declined.

Today, it is Ukraine’s military assistance that is in demand. In response to a joint attack by the United States and Israel in late February, Iran began firing hundreds of missiles and drones at U.S. partners across the Middle East. The

Trump Has Got Europe All Wrong

Anthony Luzzatto Gardner

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President Donald Trump has long disdained the European Union. In his first term, he frequently railed against the bloc, describing it as a “foe” and “worse than China.” In his second term, Trump’s attitude has morphed into outright hatred. His desire, now, is to fracture the EU: a leaked draft of an earlier version of the 2025 National Security Strategy included the objective of “pulling” certain countries “away” from the bloc. That aim is also evident in Washington’s decision to impose high tariffs on the EU’s exports and in the final version of the National Security Strategy, which suggested that the U.S. government would support far-right, anti-EU parties across the continent.

Trump’s objections to the EU are numerous. In February 2025, he told his cabinet that the EU “was formed in order to screw the United States. That’s the purpose of it, and they’ve done a good job of it. But now I’m president.” He has recently attacked its leaders for their unwillingness to support U.S. military actions against Iran. He believes that the continent’s democratic institutions and Judeo-Christian heritage are being destroyed by its supposedly permissive approach to immigration. He views its trade and technology policy as unfair, and, fundamentally, he seems to regard the EU as determined to undermine the United States.

Remaking Europe’s Energy System for the Age of AI

LUCREZIA REICHLIN

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Europe will never have the abundant fossil-fuel resources of the US, but it can still achieve the kinds of energy diversification and cost reductions seen in China. This would protect Europe from price spikes and enable the EU to compete in the defining economic race of our time: turning electricity into intelligence.

LONDON – The US-Israeli war on Iran is a wake-up call for the European Union: energy remains a critical strategic vulnerability. But addressing this vulnerability by weakening elements of the European Emissions Trading System, as the European Council seems to want, would do nothing to confront a challenge that extends well beyond dependence on imported fossil fuels. The real source of Europe’s vulnerability is an energy system that is fundamentally incompatible with economic power in the 21st century.

Advancing European Military Capacity in Space

Erin Pobjie

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European governments have announced ambitions to significantly build up their military space assets in the context of Russia’s war against Ukraine and Europe’s overdependence on the United States in the space domain. This report examines how European allies could strengthen their ability to operate in, through and from space in a European-theatre contingency.

Any major Russian military operation against one or more NATO allies would unfold in a contested space domain. Russian counterspace capabilities – including direct-ascent anti-satellite systems, jamming, cyber operations and on-orbit proximity activities – are already operational. European governments, armed forces and societies are dependent on space-enabled services, including satellite communications; positioning, navigation and timing through systems such as the Global Positioning System and Galileo; and Earth observation. These systems and their associated ground segments constitute critical assets and would be priority targets in a high-intensity conflict.

Testing The Limits of Aegean Deterrence, Gray Zone Warfare, & Sovereignty

Elias Diakos

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In April 2022, several public, official, and military sources reported Turkish fighter aircraft conducted overflights above Greek islands in the eastern Aegean. The move exemplified grey-zone tactics: sustained pressure below armed conflict. These actions constituted national airspace violations rather than mere FIR rule violations. Flight Information Region (FIR) is an internationally designated airspace within which a state provides air traffic and flight information services. Entering national airspace at low altitudes over inhabited islands left no room for misinterpretation. The Hellenic Air Force deployed pairs of F-16s to intercept. An official incident was recorded. In line with established practice, standard diplomatic protests were lodged, and the day fortunately ended without further escalation.

In 2022, according to HNDGS data, there were 11,256 violations of national airspace, 234 overflights above islands, and 333 engagements between Greek and Turkish aircraft. In total, 2,758 aircraft were involved. The numbers do not point to a “crisis,” but rather patterns of routine activity. Turkey’s April 2022 airspace violation occurred during a period of heightened tension. Greece had recently reinforced its military presence in the Aegean, prompting Turkey to respond with a show of force just short of direct engagement. However, persistent hostilities of this nature pose the constant risk of escalation while shifting the dispute from national airspace to the issue of sovereignty itself.

How Russia's threat has seen Germany become Europe's most important army

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General Carsten Breuer is a man in a hurry. As head of Germany's armed forces he's the most powerful, and arguably the most important, soldier in Europe. He's been tasked with the rapid expansion of Germany's armed might, turning its army into the continent's most powerful fighting force. For he believes Russia's ongoing attempts to bolster its military through increased recruitment and investment in weaponry will leave it strong enough to launch an attack on a Nato territory by 2029.

"I've never experienced a situation which is as dangerous, as urgent, as it is today," he told me at a military base in Munster, near the Dutch border. "So what we are seeing, what we are facing, is a threat from Russia. We can clearly see that Russia is building up its military to a strength which is nearly double the size of what they had before the war against Ukraine… In 2029 it will be possible for Russia to conduct a major war against Nato. And as a soldier I have to say 'okay, we have to be prepared for this'."

Pakistan’s Afghan Frankenstein: The beast is loose and Europe is unsuspecting

Konstantinos Bogdanos

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Is Pakistan finally facing the monster it created? Is Europe prepared for the consequences? The answer is in the smoke rising over the Durand Line. For decades, the Islamabad establishment has played a dangerous game, nurturing the Taliban as a strategic depth agent against India. Today, this plan backfires, and the resulting explosion of violence threatens to send a fresh wave of illegal immigration toward the already strained borders of the European Union.

The “open war” declared by Defence Minister Khawaja Asif marks the end of a thirty-year illusion. The apprentice has not only left the master. He has now turned openly against him. The March 16 strike on Kabul was the moment masks fell. When Pakistani warplanes hammered a rehabilitation centre in the heart of the Afghan capital, the “Islamic brotherhood” of the two neighbours officially ceased to be.