11 March 2019

What the India-Pakistan Crisis Taught China

by Sumit Ganguly Rajan Menon

The artillery on either side of the Line of Control—the de facto border dividing the disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir between India and Pakistan—have yet to fall silent. The barrages began last week after both countries launched air raids within twenty-four hours of each other. Fortunately, no further escalation has occurred, nor does it seem likely.

This latest clash between India and Pakistan was triggered by a February 14 suicide bombing on an Indian paramilitary convoy in Pulwama in Indian-administered Kashmir. India responded with air strikes aimed at a redoubt of the Jaish-e-Mohammed terrorist group in Balakot, part of Pakistan’s Khyber-Pukhtunkhwa province. The Pakistan Air Force struck back the next day, in Indian-administered Kashmir. Indian interceptor aircraft engaged in hot pursuit. The ensuing aerial battle led to the downing of a Pakistani F-16 and an Indian MiG-21 Bison. The latter’s pilot ejected, landed in Pakistani territory, and was met by a hostile gathering of local denizens from which he was rescued by Pakistani troops, who took him captive.

The US GSP Decision: Risks to US-India Relations and Upsides for China

By Aman Thakker

The Trump administration’s decision to withdraw India’s Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) benefits not only risks adversely affecting the broader strategic relationship with India, but also giving a boost to Chinese exports.

On March 4, 2019, President Donald Trump wrote a letter to Congress to provide notice of his intent to terminate the designation of India as a beneficiary country under the Generalized System of Preferences, a program designed to “promote economic growth and development in the developing world.” Although the Indian government noted that the “GSP concessions extended by the U.S. amounted to duty reduction of only $190 million” per year, this decision could spill over and adversely affect other aspects of the U.S.-India relationship. Moreover, by revoking India’s GSP benefits, the Trump administration may also worsen America’s trade deficit with other countries, notably China.

Risks to the U.S.-India Relationship

OIC’s Invitation to India- A diplomatic Coup!

By R M Panda

India has the second largest population of Muslims and yet it has been denied its rightful place in the OIC meetings so far. It was therefore a big diplomatic triumph for India when it was a invited to the OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation) meeting this year for the first time since its formation.

India’s External affairs minister Ms Sushma Swaraj addressed the inaugural session of the OIC’s 46th session of council of Foreign Ministers as a Guest of honour. India’s presence in the OIC meeting in Abu Dhabi was a major setback to Pakistan as it had been consistently opposing Indian presence in any form in the OIC. 

Sushma Swaraj made a very powerful speech emphasizing on peace, quoting from “Holy Quran”, “Guru Nanak dev” and the “Rig Veda”. She said every religion in the world stands for peace, compassion and brotherhood. India’s fight against terrorism must not be seen as a confrontation against any religion.

MBS Visit Strengthens Indo-Saudi Strategic Partnership – Analysis

By Lakshmi Priya*

Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud (Bin Salman or MbS) made his first state visit to India on February 19-20, 2019 as part of a three nation Asia tour that included Pakistan and China. The visit took place in the backdrop of the Pulwama terror attack by the Pakistani jihadi terrorist group Jaish-e-Mohammed in which 44 CRPF personnel were killed. Saudi Arabia was one of the first countries to strongly condemn the Pulwama terror attack. Foreign Minister Adel bin Al-Jubeir denounced the attack saying that “anyone who supports and finances the menace must be designated and must be punished”. Prime Minister Narendra Modi received the Crown Prince at the airport going beyond protocol. India-Saudi Arabia ties had entered an era of strategic partnership with the signing of the Riyadh Declaration in 2010, followed by the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on defence cooperation in 2014. During the visit of MbS, the two countries agreed to fortify the partnership by establishing a high level monitoring mechanism in the form of the Strategic Partnership Council. They also signed five Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) related to investment, tourism, housing, and information and broadcasting.

Afghans Are Cheering for an Indian Win


KABUL— “Anyone who takes the side of Pakistan and blames India, please unfriend [me] from Facebook, otherwise I will [say things that] upset you,” Mohammad Iqbal Afzali wrote on social media on Tuesday. A quick scroll through his Facebook feed reveals a strong stance in support of India’s recent cross-border airstrikes on Jaish-e-Mohammed targets in Balakot, Pakistan, following the Feb. 14 terrorist attack on an Indian Army convoy.

If you didn’t know better, you’d think Afzali was an Indian nationalist. But, in fact, he’s an Afghan, just one of a chorus of voices in Kabul who support the Indian moves. Even though he spent several years in Pakistan as a refugee at the height of the Afghan conflict in the 1990s, Afzali doesn’t remember his hosts fondly. “Well, [India] attacked after Pakistan’s offense. When an enemy attacks, we must give them an answer. That’s what India did, and they did very well,” he said.

Qudratullah Andar Sultani, a former government official, agreed. “If America can attack a country for the sake of their national defense, then why can’t India? They too were under pressure to do something,” he said.

Report: India, Russia Sign $3 Billion Nuclear Attack Submarine Deal

By Franz-Stefan Gady

India and Russia have signed an intergovernmental agreement for a 10-year lease of a Russian nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN), according to Indian media reports.

Indian defense sources speaking to The Print on the condition of anonymity said that the deal to lease a new sub, designated Chakra III, purportedly the Russian Navy’s K-322 Kashalot (Akula II-class) SSN, was inked on March 7 in the Indian capital of New Delhi. No additional details were provided.

Neither the Indian nor Russian governments have officially confirmed that a deal has been signed this week. The intergovernmental agreement is also just the initial hurdle in what is likely to be a protracted procurement process. Detailed contract negotiations are expected to follow, and based on the historical record of Indo-Russian defense relations their successful conclusion is not a given.

India and Pakistan on the Brink: A Nuclear Nightmare in Southeast Asia

by Geoff Wilson Will Saetren

With last week's U.S.-North Korea summit in Hanoi, Congressional Democrats’ revolt against President Donald Trump’s state of emergency and Michael Cohen's testimony before the House Oversight Committee; you may have missed the news that the Indian Air Force launched airstrikes against targets in Pakistan.

This was quietly one of the dangerous crises of the post–Cold War era.

On February 26, Indian fighter jets attacked a terrorist training camp operated by the Pakistani-based group Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), in the Pakistani province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The attack was a reprisal for an earlier suicide bombing in Kashmir on February 14 that killed over forty Indian paramilitary police.

Why was MiG-29 missing in action? And, why the ‘stability-instability paradox’ has proved a dud

by Bharat Karnad

[IAF’s MiG-29 at a forward base]

The delayed Indian riposte to the Pulwama attack finally took place with the aerial attack on Jaish-e-Mohammad ops centre in Balakot, fairly deep into the Pakistani province of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. It played out, however, in the usual fashion when India and Pakistan are involved — a lot of patriotic noise covering up for minimal action, and also on the Indian side, the familiar charges of intelligence failure. The eventual Bahalwalpur feint followed by the Mirage 2000 strike sortie was, however, nicely staged by IAF.

The important thing about the Balakot strike was not the numbers of JeM cadres eliminated or the extent to which JeM’s terrorist infrastructure was destroyed, but the fact that the strike took place at all. During the time it took the Modi government to gird up its loins and seek armed retribution, it seemed Delhi was going down the familiar path of doing little itself but relying on other countries to pressure Islamabad to rein in the terrorist outfits under its wing, and otherwise trying its hardest diplomatically to “isolate” Pakistan — as if this somehow would restrain GHQ, Rawalpindi, or convince Imran Khan to go on bended knees to Pakistan COAS General Javed Bajwa. Indeed, prior to Balakot the Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Qureishi all but laughed at MEA’s contention that his country was isolated in the world for its sponsorship of terrorist gangs as asymmetric means of warfare. So, when IAF finally went into action against Balakot, it was a huge relief.

The Challenge of living next to China.


The note of elation that seems to have crept into our discourse because of India’s GDP growth once gain creeping past China’s cannot be missed. But the elation misses an essential reality. That is that the Indian and Chinese economies are now in two entirely different stages of development.

For a start China’s GDP is more than four and a half times bigger than India’s. Their GDP now is about $12 trillion and India is inching towards $2.4 trillion. How China moves and acts in the future will affect the developed economies enormously as it has been the major provider of growth for the last two decades, and India’s growth had little bearing or derived little benefit from it.

India and China now exist in different orbits of the world economy. A slowed down China now growing at 6.6% still adds $7-800 billion to global growth, while a speeded up India now growing at more than 7% adds a mere $160 billion.

For India to pick up the Chinese slack and matter to the world, it needs to be posting a more frenetic 9-10% over the next decade or more. There is not even a glimmer of that now. Hope is a good thing but wishful thinking leads to serious consequences. We must be careful and realistic when we analyze our prospects and decide on our actions.

Afghanistan: Should go ahead with Shahtoot Dam on Kabul River:

By S. Chandrasekharan

When work was begun on Shahtoot dam on Kabul River that would provide drinking water to the burgeoning population of Kabul City, there has been protests from Pakistan that the dam would reduce the water flows into Pakistan. The Dawn in one of the articles has alleged that there could be a drop of 16 to 17 percent of water in the Pakistan side.

Since India has offered assistance in building the dam, as expected the Pakistan media has alleged that a strategic water war is being waged against Pakistan

The 700 Km long Kabul River originates in the Hindukush Mountains, in the Maidan Wardak Province, flows through Kabul, Kandahar and then enters Pakistan north of the Khyber Pass and flows through Peshawar and Nowshera and ultimately joins the Indus at Attock.

The proposed dam is to be built on Maidan River, an upper tributary of Kabul River in the Chahar Asiali district of Kabul Province. The dam will have a storage capacity of 147 million cubic metres and should provide drinking water to roughly two million of the six million people in Kabul alone. It would also irrigate roughly 400 hectares of agricultural land.

China And Saudi Arabia Converge On Pakistan – Analysis

By Dilip Hiro*

A trilateral alliance of China-Pakistan-Saudi Arabia, driven by geo-economic interests, is emerging, with the Pakistani port of Gwadar on the Arabian Sea as its hub. This builds upon a geopolitical foundation dating back to the mid-1960s. With the Trump administration cutting $2.1 billion worth of financial and military aid to Islamabad, neighboring China and friendly Saudi Arabia have taken cash-strapped Pakistan under their wings to strengthen its economic base. In contrast to the wavering Washington-Islamabad relationship, Sino-Pakistani ties have become tighter with each passing decade. 

China’s interest in Gwadar dates back to 2001 when the visiting Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji signed an agreement with Pakistan to turn the facility into a deep-water port. China covered three-quarters of the $250 million cost of building the port commissioned in 2007. Yielding to pressure by the United States, Pakistan’s president opted for giving the 40-year operating lease to PSA International, owned by the Port of Singapore Authority. The port was not operationally profitable, and Pakistan transferred control to state-owned China Overseas Ports Holding Company Limited, or COPHCL, in 2013.

Ending the War in Afghanistan

by Christopher A. Preble 

On March 4, Senators Rand Paul and Tom Udall put forward bi-partisan draft legislation that would end U.S. military involvement in the war in Afghanistan. The proposed joint resolution gives the Trump administration forty-five days to present a plan for the orderly withdrawal of U.S. military personnel from the country. In keeping with a tradition going back to the Revolutionary War, some three million men and women who have deployed in support of all wars launched after 9/11 will receive a cash bonus of $2,500. Lastly, the resolution stipulates that all U.S. armed forces will be withdrawn from Afghanistan within one year of its passage.

The case for such a move is simple and straightforward. The U.S. military has achieved its core objectives spelled out after 9/11. Bin Laden is dead. Al Qaeda is crippled. The Department of Defense reported last June: “The Al Qaeda threat to the United States and its allies and partners has decreased and the few remaining al Qaeda core members are focused on their own survival.”

The China-Pakistan Axis of Evil

Brahma Chellaney

The February 26 Indian airstrike on a terrorist sanctuary in Pakistan’s heartland cannot obscure the resurfacing of India-China tensions following the Valentine’s Day terrorist attack in Pulwama that killed dozens of Indian paramilitary troops. China’s culpability in the attack — and in previous lethal cross-border terrorist strikes, such as on the Pathankot airbase — is apparent from its shielding of Pakistan’s export to terrorism to India. China brazenly provides cover for Pakistan’s collusion with state-reared terrorists.

The message from India’s use of airpower for the first time against a cross-border terrorist safe haven is that it is not afraid to escalate its response to the aerial domain in order to call Pakistan’s nuclear bluff. This could potentially mark a defining moment in India’s counterterrorism efforts against Pakistan’s strategy to inflict death by a thousand cuts.

America's New 'Plan' for Afghanistan

by Caroline Caywood
Source Link

After nearly two decades of war in Afghanistan—the longest conflict in American history—the United States has finally begun to seriously consider potential exit strategies. Nevertheless, the White House’s recent announcement on the partial withdrawal of U.S. troops from the ongoing war in Afghanistan raises serious questions. At a recent Center for the National Interest panel discussion, three experts on the Afghan conflict weighed both the merits and repercussions of withdrawing from America’s longest war. The stability of the region and future of American interests in Central Asia depend in part on a well-planned extrication of U.S. forces from Afghanistan, but reaching that point remains a challenge.

Peace Settlement?

Chinese invasion of Indian industry

Paran Balakrishnan

It’s been a huge coup for Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu. Chinese firm TCL, which is looking to expand its presence in the Indian market hugely, has selected Naidu’s showpiece electronics hub at Tirupati to make a ₹2,200-crore investment in two plants that will turn out mobile phones and television screens. TCL grew 120 per cent in the last year and has major plans for the Indian market.

Cut to Delhi where Taiwanese company KYMCO has just picked up an undisclosed stake in an ambitious electric two-wheeler start-up Twenty Two Motors. KYMCO brings with it a new, lightweight 5 kg battery that can be swapped quickly. Twenty Two is now looking at setting up charging infrastructure at 2-km intervals in six Indian cities where vehicle-owners can stop and change these lightweight batteries. Strictly speaking, KYMCO isn’t a Chinese company but the investment in India has come from its Hangzhou-based fund.

In China's Backyard, Charting the Course of Most Advantage

By Evan Rees

In the mounting great power competition between the United States and China, both countries will strive to build influence among the smaller powers of Southeast Asia. Southeast Asian nations, however, will not fall into neat Chinese or U.S. spheres, instead playing the middle to gain advantages from both. This fits the strategy many pursued during the Cold War and, in the new great power arena, they will find it easier to preserve greater autonomy.

The growing great power competition between the United States and China has assumed center stage in Asia, where the Chinese push to build out a buffer in the land and maritime domains in its near-abroad is running up against the U.S. desire to maintain its dominant role in the region. The smaller states along the rims of the Western Pacific and Indian oceans, in particular, have become arenas of competition between Washington and Beijing, and in Southeast Asia, long the maritime and terrestrial crossroads of empire in the Indo-Pacific, their contest has reached a robust and deep level. The U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy hinges on enlisting the support of these smaller powers. China has countered by using its Belt and Road Initiative to specifically target these middle players in hopes of forging deeper economic and strategic ties.

The Big Picture

The Problem With Xi’s China Model

By Elizabeth C. Economy

As China’s National People’s Congress and its advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, gather this March in Beijing for their annual two-week sessions to discuss the country’s challenges and path forward, President Xi Jinping may well be tempted to take a victory lap. Within his first five years in office, he has pioneered his own style of Chinese politics, at last upending the model Deng Xiaoping established 30 years ago. As I wrote in Foreign Affairs last year (“China’s New Revolution,” May/June 2018), Xi has moved away from Deng’s consensus-based decision-making and consolidated institutional power in his own hands. He has driven the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) more deeply into Chinese political, social, and economic life, while constraining the influence of foreign ideas and economic competition. And he has abandoned Deng’s low-profile foreign policy in favor of one that is ambitious and expansive.

And yet the mood in Beijing is far from victorious. As Xi begins his second five-year term as CCP general secretary and (soon) president, there are signs that the new model’s very successes are becoming liabilities. Too much party control is contributing to a stagnant economy and societal discontent, while too much ambition has cooled the initial ardor with which many in the international community greeted Xi’s vision of a new global order “with Chinese characteristics.”

Six futuristic concepts on the Pentagon’s counterterrorism “wish list”

by Justin Rohrlich

A Department of Defense (DoD) branch that “identifies and develops capabilities to combat terrorism and irregular adversaries” is looking for big ideas.

According to a solicitation issued earlier this year, DoD’s Combating Terrorism Technical Support Office (CTTSO) wants scientists and researchers to deliver, among other things, adhesive skin patches that double as alarms; color night vision; armed underwater drones; long-range facial recognition; and a device that can locate and identify human targets through solid walls.

CTTSO’s request represents a “wish list” of sorts, says Paul Rosenzweig, a former deputy assistant secretary for policy at the Department of Homeland Security who has written extensively about counterterrorism.

Now a senior fellow at the R Street Institute, a conservative-leaning Washington, DC think tank, Rosenzweig thinks some of what CTTSO hopes to achieve is likely doable, and reasonably quickly. Certain concepts, however, will probably remain just slightly out of reach, at least in the near-term, Rosenzweig tells Quartz.

What’s the Next Step for ISIS? A Top U.S. General Shares His Prediction with Lawmakers

by Joe Gould 

WASHINGTON — Despite the Islamic State group’s territorial losses, it is not surrendering and will morph into an insurgency marked by assassinations, improvised bomb attacks and ambushes, warned America’s top general in the Middle East to Congress on Thursday.

“Reduction of the physical caliphate is a monumental military accomplishment, but the fight against ISIS and violent extremism is far from over,” U.S. Central Command chief Gen. Joseph Votel told the House Armed Services Committee.

ISIS fighters “remain unrepentant, unbroken and radicalized,” he said, noting that they are shrewdly safeguarding their families and capabilities by melting into remote areas and camps for displaced people, “waiting for the right time to resurge.”

“We will need to maintain a vigilant offensive against this now widely dispersed and disaggregated organization that includes leaders, fighters, facilitators and of course their toxic ideology,” Votel said, calling it “a serious generational problem, if not handled correctly.”

His assessment contradicts President Donald Trump, who said in recent weeks the group was on the brink of eradication and had lost 100 percent of the territory it once controlled in Syria. (Votel said ISIS maintains a 1-mile sliver of the 34,000 square miles it once held.)…

How to Turn Iraq into a Terrorist Playground

by Christopher Brodsky

On January 25, popular Iraqi Shi’a cleric Muqtada al-Sadr submitted a bill to remove U.S. troops from Iraq. Qais al-Khazali, head of the Iranian-backed militia Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, followed-up on January 28 by threatening that an impending parliamentary vote would oust U.S. forces from the country. Al-Khazali suggested that Iraqis take military action to force out the American troops if such a political initiative were to fail. Washington and Baghdad’s strained relationship took an additional hit over the weekend when President Donald Trump said U.S. troops are in Iraq to watch Iran, increasing Iraqi concerns that Iraq could serve as a battleground between the two.

Sadr and al-Khazali’s calls for the expulsion of U.S. troops are nothing new, but they are exacerbating already tense relations between Baghdad and Washington. In September, U.S. officials threatened to cut aid to Iraq if the incoming government appointed Iranian-affiliated officials to high-level positions. In November, the Trump administration demanded that Iraq cut off Iranian energy imports as a condition for a limited waiver from secondary sanctions on Iran. Then, in December, Trump made a surprise visit to American military forces but failed to visit Baghdad or meet with lawmakers: a move Iraqi officials considered a snub to Iraq’s sovereignty.

Four Game Changers in Europe’s South


When dealing with the Mediterranean and the Middle East, the European Union has often confronted multiple challenges: authoritarianism, terrorism, popular revolutions, prolonged civil wars, and human trafficking.

But now Europe is facing major game changers across its Southern Neighborhood. Old-time foes like Russia and Iran have a much stronger footprint in the region; Turkey is partly turning its back to NATO and playing the Russian card; and the United States has become an unpredictable ally. At issue is whether EU leaders will muster the courage and cohesion to confront this new geopolitical landscape or if they will remain hapless. Either way, the consequences are immense.

Since September 2015, Russia has distinctly reinforced its military, energy, and political involvement in the Middle East, generally in an anti-Western direction.

Nearly A Third Of Russia’s Population Will Be Muslim, Country’s Grand Mufti Predicts; “The End Of Russia; And What It Means For America”

Jessica Green posted a March 5, 2019 article by the title above to the news website the DailyMail.com. She writes that the “Russian Council of Muftis has predicted that almost a third of the country will be Muslim within 15 years. Sheikh Ravil Gainutdin, a grand mufti for the religious group which represents Russia’s Muslim community, claimed a record-number of Muslims attended mosques in the capital to celebrate the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha last year/2018.”

“Speaking at a [recent] conference in Moscow, he insisted that more than 320,000-strong show of those performing their prayers for the festival in the city was an indicator of the rising number of Muslims in the city,” Ms. Green wrote. “According to predictions of experts, 30 percent of Russia’s population will consist of Muslims in 15 years,” Gainutdin said.

“Russia’s Muslim-majority regions are known to have the highest birth rates, including republics in the North Caucasus, and the republic of Tatarstan,” according to the Moscow Times. “Along with the high birth rate among Muslim families, another reason for the apparent increase is the arrival of individuals from Central Asia,” the grand mufti added.

Brazil’s Bolsonaro Stumbles Out of the Gate

Frida Ghitis 

When Rio de Janeiro’s legendary Carnival kicked off last Friday, there was a mood of unease among the flamboyant revelers. It was plainly visible behind the laughter and the music, in many of the costumes and chants targeting President Jair Bolsonaro and his administration, which is less than three months old. But while the crowds were expressing concerns about the new far-right government, their message was also a sign of how much Bolsonaro has stumbled out of the gate.

Amid rumors, denied by the Brazilian government, that the military was planning to censor anti-Bolsonaro demonstrations and crack down on a gay parade, Carnival participants chanted rebukes to anti-gay statements made by Bolsonaro’s human rights minister. They dressed in costumes with political symbols aimed at highlighting the early appearance of alleged corruption in Bolsonaro’s inner circle. Brazil’s hard-line president, who won last year’s election by vowing to uproot corruption, revive the economy and dispense with politically correct policies, is already facing charges of nepotism, and his administration is caught up in graft scandals. Relations with Brazil’s Congress are brittle, and there are troubling signs of renewed unrest in protected indigenous areas of the country. 

Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems: Recent Developments

By Hayley Evans, Natalie Salmanowitz

On March 25-29, the U.N.’s Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) will meet for the third consecutive year to discuss developments and strategies in the field of lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS). As a subsidiary body of the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW), the GGE brings together High Contracting Parties, state signatories, international organizations, nongovernmental organizations and academic bodies in an effort to define LAWS, debate best practices, and recommend steps to address the potential development and use of LAWS in the future. It’s been six months since the GGE last met, and this will be the first of two GGE meetings taking place in 2019 (for more information on the GGE’s prior meetings, see here and here). This post will cover all you need to know about where relevant stakeholders stand leading up to the March meeting.

Background on LAWS

Operationalizing the Information Environment: Lessons Learned from Cyber Integration in the USCENTCOM AOR

By General Joseph L. Votel, Major General David J. Julazadeh, Major Weilun Lin 

From Joint Publication (JP) 3-13, the Information Environment (IE) is defined as “an aggregate of individuals, organizations, and systems that collect, process, disseminate, or act on information.” It is within this environment that our adversaries have engaged us persistently below a threshold that could trigger a kinetic response. Within the IE, the cyberspace domain provides our adversaries an asymmetric advantage where they can operate at the speed of war without bureaucratic obstacles or concern for collateral damage, and at relatively low cost. Rapid technological advancements and the lower barriers of entry open the cyber environment for both state and non-state actors to gain and exploit information.

Cultivating Technology Innovation for Cyberspace Operations

By Colonel Stoney Trent, Ph.D. 

Pursuit of innovation need not require big bets on uncertain futures….[Organizations] can succeed … by harnessing the past in powerful ways” [1].Our Nation and our allies are fighting a Cyber Cold War against multiple capable adversaries. [2] Like the original Cold War, we have lost ground in the first decade by failing to acknowledge the breadth and sophistication of our adversaries’ actions. While recent hacks of financial and political institutions have drawn significant attention, some of the most disturbing intrusions have been directed at military and nuclear industries.Sadly, these cyber-attacks have been met with general inaction. Widespread Russian cyber-attacks in Ukraine [3] set the conditions for an invasion that was generally described as a separatist movement. [4] The most recent National Security Strategy emphasizes the gravity of China and Russia’s information operations. [5] Unfortunately, disinformations own about and through cyberspace attacks has resulted in domestic squabbling that has limited our ability to govern effectively, let alone mount an effective response.

Offensive Digital Countermeasures: Exploring the Implications for Governments

By Rock Stevens, Jeffrey Biller

The theft of intellectual property and classified data within the cyber domain poses a threat to the global economy and national security. In this paper, we discuss the concept of digital offensive countermeasures that the United States can use to defend its sensitive data and intellectual property, even after stolen data leaves U.S. Government networks. We analyze the plethora of legal and ethical issues involving the various degrees of invasiveness posed by such defenses against both foreign and domestic targets. The lack of established norms surrounding digital offensive countermeasures presents a unique duality in which such defenses may present a viable cyber deterrent for the United States but may also spark our next conflict.

AI in Cyberspace: Beyond the Hype

By Fernando Maymí, Scott Lathrop

Artificial intelligence (AI) is quickly becoming ubiquitous, particularly as part of solutions to defense problems in cyberspace. It seems like few companies want to risk marketing products that cannot be described using this term,perhaps for fear of losing ground to competitors who can. But what exactly is meant by AI? Is it all just marketing hype? The answer, of course, is far from simple. To move beyond the hype, we need to look at what AI is, what it is not and how the technology needs to mature to live up to its promise.

Israel’s National Security Doctrine: The Report of the Committee on the Formulation of the National Security Doctrine (Meridor Committee), Ten Years Later

Dan Meridor, Ron Eldadi

This special memorandum presents the report of the Committee for the Formulation of Israel’s National Security Doctrine (Meridor Committee, 2006) and examines the conclusions and recommendations of the committee’s report a decade later. The committee was asked by the minister of defense and the prime minister to assess the validity of the existing national security doctrine and to recommend a revised version, given the main security challenges of the coming decade. At the end of a long and comprehensive process, the committee submitted to government leaders, for the first time, a formal and written document that set out a comprehensive, integrative, and long-term national security doctrine. This memorandum presents only a condensed version of the report due to its sensitive nature.

Thinking Differently About The Business Of War – Analysis

By Neil Hollenbeck, Arnel P. David, and Benjamin Jensen*

Woven through our professional military discourse are threads of two different schools of thought with colors that clash. One school sees continuity in war and argues for renewed emphasis on core warfighting competencies. The other sees change in war and argues for reevaluation of the merits of those same competencies. A similar debate plays out in business literature. In a fiercely competitive and constantly shifting business environment, is success about the willingness to change with the times or the ability to focus on the fundamentals?

According to the 2018 National Defense Strategy, we are entering an era of great power competition and rapid technological change.1 In his May 2017 testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee, Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army General Mark Milley warned of “a fundamental change in the character of warfare.”2 His comments were consistent with predictions reported in a 2015–2016 Army study projecting trends likely to influence the future warfighting environment.3 Among its conclusions were that the future U.S. military may be dramatically challenged by a convergence of factors, including the proliferation of low-cost sensors, precision-strike technology, robotics, and information technologies that change how people receive, manage, and use information.