Indian Strategic Studies: September 2024

17 September 2024

India Becomes Armenia’s Largest Defense Supplier

Syed Fazl-e-Haider

In August, it was reported that Armenia will receive India’s indigenously developed Akash-1S air defense missile system later in 2024. Armenia, which had placed an order for 15 Akash missile systems in 2022 for $720 million, will be the first foreign buyer of the platform. The Akash-1S systems, which Indian company Bharat Dynamics Limited will supply, provide reliable protection against air threats such as fighters, guided missiles, and drones (ARMENPRESS; India Defense Research Wing, August 8). Military cooperation between New Delhi and Yerevan continues to deepen, with Armenia emerging as the largest importer of weapons from India in the past four years. A report from the Indian Finance Ministry said, “The former Soviet Republic of Armenia has become the largest importer of weapons from India after concluding deals on the purchase of Pinaka multiple-launch rocket systems and Akash anti-aircraft systems.” The report further said, “the total volume of weapons purchases by Armenia from India reached $600 million by the start of current [financial year] 2024–25.” Under multimillion-dollar defense deals, New Delhi is committed to supplying Indian-made howitzers, anti-tank rockets, and anti-drone equipment to the Armenian army (Azatutyun, July 24). The deepening defense cooperation between India and Armenia reflects both nations’ strategic efforts to reshape regional alliances, as Armenia seeks alternatives to Russian military support and India looks to expand its geopolitical influence in the South Caucasus.

In 2023, Yerevan decided to appoint a defense attaché to its embassy in New Delhi in a move to strengthen military cooperation with India. The decision came after Armenia signed several defense deals with Indian arms manufacturers in 2022. The deals, which totalled $245 million, included the acquisition of Indian multiple launch rocket systems, anti-tank rockets, and ammunition. The Armenian military attaché will supposedly coordinate existing defense programs between the two countries (Caucasus Watch, May 23, 2023). The presence of an Armenian defense attaché in India will allow Yerevan and New Delhi to conduct military cooperation in a more official and diplomatic manner.

Why Zelenskyy should visit India (and what he should focus on once he is there)

Srujan Palkar

Ukraine’s ambassador to India, Oleksandr Polishchuk, caused a stir in the Indian press this week when he said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy might visit India by the end of the year. Should it take place, the visit would follow Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Kyiv in August, and his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow in July. A visit by Zelenskyy would be sure to capture a lot of attention, but to make substantive progress in developing Ukraine-India relations, the agenda will need to focus on commonalties and opportunities.

Zelenskyy’s statements to the press on August 23, just as Modi was leaving Ukraine, bode well for a future visit by the Ukrainian president to India. Zelenskyy said he wished to connect with India and wanted to know more about its people. But for Zelenskyy to build on Modi’s visit to strengthen his country’s relations with India, there are several factors that will be key to understanding the country and connecting with Indians.

Most importantly, India does not believe in the idea of “with us or against us.” From former Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru’s policy of nonalignment to Modi’s all-alignment, India has a long foreign policy tradition of charting its own course, separate from geopolitical blocs. As Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar stated, “India is non-West and not anti-West.” India is unlikely to take the exact position Zelenskyy is asking for—whether being fully critical of Putin’s Russia or stopping the import of Russian oil.

Modi Visits Ukraine: Indian “Strategic Autonomy” on Display

Jeff M. Smith

Media coverage of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent trip to Ukraine focused on how it was the first time an Indian prime minister had visited modern Ukraine. It is equally important, and no coincidence, that his visit came as Ukraine is plunging deeper into an escalating war with India’s longtime defense patron, Russia.

India has long preached a “Non-Aligned” foreign policy with an emphasis on maintaining its “strategic autonomy.” Yet it has rarely broken with Russia in the over five decades since the two countries signed a defense pact. Indeed, Non-Alignment has historically been synonymous with Non-American.

Over the past decade, however, the Modi government has shed much of this historical baggage and substantially strengthened ties with the U.S. More recently, India has also begun to show more independence from Russia. Modi’s visit to Kiev is only the latest example.

To be sure, the takeaways from Modi’s visit were modest; India is not countenancing a sharp break with Russia. Nonetheless, Modi’s visit to Ukraine has lessons for Washington policymakers.

Maldives President to Visit India Amid Danger of Debt Default

Ahmed Naish

Maldives President Dr. Mohamed Muizzu is expected to visit India next week as his government scrambles to avoid a disastrous debt default.

“The president is scheduled to visit India very soon. Discussions are ongoing between Maldives and India on the best date,” spokesperson Heena Waleed told the press on September 10, without providing any further details about the trip.

After ostensibly mending strained ties with the Maldives’ giant neighbor, Muizzu’s first official visit to India since assuming office last year comes with the central bank seeking a $400 million currency swap arrangement under the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) framework.

The swap deal would effectively be an Indian bailout to help the Maldives make impending interest payments, and shore up dangerously depleted foreign currency reserves.

On September 11, credit ratings agency Moody’s downgraded the Maldives based on an assessment that “default risks have risen materially,” casting doubt on the country’s ability to service substantial debt obligations due over the next two years.

How 9/11 Changed – and Didn’t Change – Afghanistan

Freshta Jalalzai

On 9/11, I lived in Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan.

Our neighborhood in eastern Kabul, Microryan, stood like a forgotten relic—a gray, unremarkable five-story housing complex built during the Soviet invasion.

By 2001, the Taliban controlled roughly 90 percent of Afghanistan, with the remaining areas, primarily in the north, held by the Northern Alliance, a coalition of anti-Taliban forces, particularly in northern regions like the Panjshir Valley. The Northern Alliance was primarily composed of remnants of the Mujahideen factions that had fought against the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s. However, after the collapse of the pro-communist regime in April 1992, they unleashed a devastating civil war that lasted from 1992 to 1996.

The civil war had reduced Kabul to ashes. Windows shattered during the fighting were patched with plastic, and the walls of burned apartments remained blackened by fire, riddled with bullet holes – a haunting reminder of the violence that had ravaged the ancient capital city.

The Plight of Afghan Women Under the Taliban: No Respite in Sight

Shanthie Mariet D’Souza

Seasons change. Summer gives way to torrential rain. Springtime succeeds winter. For Afghan girls and women, however, neither the harsh summer nor the bone-chilling winter brings about a season of change. Before one regressive measure announced by the country’s defiant rulers is processed and a range of self-regulatory steps are initiated by girls and women, the Taliban come up with yet another harsher edict. They simply wait for the international indignation to subside before unleashing another set of restrictions. The onslaught appears to be relentless.

The most recent edict makes it illegal for a woman’s voice to be heard by male strangers in public. With the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice Ministry (a.k.a. the morality police) under strict instructions to implement the edict, this effectively translates to men becoming the sole speakers and women the obligated listeners in public places. This is in perfect sync with the male-only Taliban ruling class’ vision for the country – for men, by men, and of men. It banishes the handful of brave women who took part in protests from the streets of Kabul and a few other cities to the four walls of their homes.

After the latest decree, unemployed women are mostly confined to their homes. When they go outside, they must wear a burqa and be accompanied by a male guardian. They are only allowed to do household chores or work on handicrafts such as carpet weaving, pottery making, or garment stitching.

Can Muhammad Yunus Support Rohingya Refugees?

Michael Kugelman

The highlights this week: Interim Bangladeshi leader Muhammad Yunus grapples with increasing Rohingya refugee arrivals, Sri Lanka gears up for its presidential election this month, and renewed political tensions erupt in Pakistan.

Dhaka Confronts Rohingya Challenge

This week, Muhammad Yunus, the head of Bangladesh’s interim government, called for the expedited resettlement of Rohingya refugees to third countries. Bangladesh hosts nearly 1 million Rohingya today, many of whom fled military violence in Myanmar in 2017; many reside in massive refugee camps in the city of Cox’s Bazar.

Intensifying conflict in Myanmar has likely prompted Yunus’s urgency: Around 8,000 Rohingya refugees have crossed the border into Bangladesh in recent months, according to Bangladeshi officials.

The Rohingya issue is one of many daunting policy challenges for Yunus and the interim government, which is also grappling with restoring law and order following the forced resignation of Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina last month, stabilizing a sputtering economy, and initiating large-scale institutional reforms. But Bangladesh has a fighting chance at addressing the refugee crisis, in large part because of Yunus himself.

Dispatch from Manila: On the frontlines of the ‘gray zone’ conflict with China

Markus Garlauskas

Chinese vessels have repeatedly threatened and rammed Philippine vessels within the internationally recognized Exclusive Economic Zone of the Philippines to assert China’s excessive maritime claims, most recently on August 31. As a result, for the leaders of the Philippines, China’s aggression is not in some shadowy, ill-defined “gray zone”—it is a real and constant series of attacks on their people and sovereignty. As General Romeo Brawner, Jr., chief of staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, told us on August 27 in Manila: China’s activities are “ICAD”—illegal, coercive, aggressive, and deceptive. Brawner urged the United States and like-minded countries in the region to see these attacks as not just the Philippines’ fight, but their fight as well.

Brawner was speaking to participants of the US Indo-Pacific Command’s international Military Operations and Law (MILOPS) conference at the historic Manila Hotel, just days before the August 31 ramming. Brawner’s remarks followed those of Philippine Secretary of Defense Gilberto Teodoro, Jr., as part of a panel including US Ambassador to the Philippines MaryKay Carlson and Admiral Samuel Paparo, the commander of US Indo-Pacific Command. The conference also included top military lawyers, operational officers, and nongovernment national security experts from nearly thirty countries across the Indo-Pacific.

Islamic Fundamentalism Raises Its Head in Post-Hasina Bangladesh

Snigdhendu Bhattacharya

Shashi Lodge is a historic building in Bangladesh’s Mymensingh district. Built in the 19th century during the British colonial occupation, it was once the palatial residence of zamindars (feudal landowners) and now houses the Mymensingh Museum and the Teachers’ Training College for women.

In a garden on its campus, a white marble statue of the Roman goddess Venus imported some 150 years ago, stood in the middle of a fountain. It had survived many regimes — British, Pakistani, Bangladeshi — and rulers whether democratic, military, authoritarian, religious or secular.

On August 6, a day after Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and left the country in a dramatic chain of developments, a mob forced their way into the premises of the Shashi Lodge and vandalized and beheaded the Venus sculpture. Legendary artist Zainul Abedin’s statue was defaced. There was no other damage to the property, except for these statues.

Overall, about 1,500 sculptures, relief sculptures, murals and memorials have been vandalized, set on fire and uprooted all over the country in just three days — August 5-7.

Chinese ambassador Xie Feng lays down ‘red lines’ in US-China relationship

Mark Magnier

Interspersed with language hailing the 45th anniversary of normalised relations between the nations was a warning: Don't mess with China

Bookended by hopeful words of mutual understanding and improved relations, China's top diplomat in the US delivered a tough message on Thursday in New York: Do not mess with China and do not seek regime change.

The presentation by Xie Feng, China's ambassador to the United States, celebrated the 45th anniversary of normalised relations, people-to-people ties, explosive bilateral trade growth and past examples of cooperation. But interspersed with the feel-good outreach was his strongly delivered main message.

"Pressure, sanctions, isolation, containment and blockades don't serve the purpose," said Xie. "Rather, they bring self-inflicted trouble and require extra work to offset the unwanted results."

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Asia Has No Hegemon

Susannah Patton and Hervé Lemahieu

Debates about the balance of power in Asia typically rely on one of three views. Some analysts believe, fatalistically, that China has become an unassailably dominant force in the region. Others place continued faith in U.S. primacy and see China as weak, vulnerable, and ultimately containable. Still others, including U.S. allies such as Australia and Japan, tout the emergence of a multipolar Indo-Pacific that could arrest China’s ambitions for regional hegemony.

An accurate understanding of the balance of power in Asia is critical to the formulation of sound U.S. strategy on China. But none of these prevailing narratives get things quite right. Asia today is uniquely bipolar, dominated by the world’s only two superpowers. Asia is not a European-style concert of powers, a Middle Eastern free-for-all, or a Cold War–era system of opposing blocs. Countries in Asia are for the most part hedging between two giants. The even balance between the United States and China also makes Asia’s power politics the most stable among the major regional theaters.

To construct a more comprehensive and accurate view of the distribution of power in Asia, the Lowy Institute created the Asia Power Index, which goes beyond the traditional shorthand measure of economic size to look at military capability, national resilience, and the expected future distribution of demographic and economic resources, as well as four dimensions of regional influence: economic relationships, cultural influence, defense networks and diplomacy. What it reveals is a durable duopoly: the United States has lost primacy in Asia but remains around ten percent more powerful there than China. Scholars have posited that a power transition is triggered when a rising power’s overall strength approaches 80 percent of that of the established power. By 2018, China had already convincingly breached this threshold. But the dynamic is not that of a rising power eclipsing an established one; it is a dynamic of two powers that will likely continue to coexist as peer competitors applying different means of influence: the United States mainly uses security partnerships; China mainly uses economic relationships.

Israel destroyed reported Iranian underground missile factory in Syria ground raid

Barak Ravid

An elite Israel Defense Forces unit conducted a highly unusual raid in Syria earlier this week and destroyed an underground precision missile factory that Israel and the U.S. claim was built by Iran, according to three sources briefed on the operation.

Why it matters: Israeli airstrikes on Syria have increased since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel as cross-border conflicts between Hezbollah and Israel intensified. But the raid on Sunday was the first ground operation the IDF has conducted in recent years against Iranian targets in Syria.

The destruction of the factory appears to be a significant blow to an effort by Iran and Hezbollah to produce precision medium-range missiles on Syrian soil.
The Israeli government has stayed unusually silent about it and didn't claim responsibility in order not to provoke a retaliation by Syria, Iran or Hezbollah, sources said.
Spokespersons for the IDF, Israel's Ministry of Defense and the Prime Minister's Office declined to comment.

Turkiye’s Defence-industrial Relationships with Other European States

Tom Waldwyn

Turkiye’s defence-industrial relationships with key European partners have changed over time. In the1980s Turkiye pursued joint ventures with foreign firms to procure equipment and develop defence-industrial capability. Although the most significant of these were the agreements with US firms to set up F-16 fighter-aircraft assembly in Turkiye, many projects were pursued with European companies, including for aircraft, guided weapons and communications equipment. From 2004, Turkiye changed its approach to focus more on acquiring locally developed equipment. Many of these platforms were either designed with assistance from foreign firms or were fitted with their subsystems, although over the past two decades Turkiye has been seeking to replace the latter with its own systems.

Over the last four decades, and in some cases for even longer, French, Italian, Dutch, Spanish and British companies have been important in supporting Turkish defence-industrial objectives. Today, however, some of those companies are less involved than they were previously, due to a series of political disagreements between Ankara and their respective national governments. The main causes of discord have been Turkiye’s military operations in Syria since 2016, particularly the 2019 Operation Peace Spring, and its acquisition of the Russian Almaz-Antey S-400 air-defence system in 2017. Due to these political differences, France’s and the Netherlands’ levels of defence-industrial engagement with Turkiye are now at historic low points. By contrast, although Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom share many of these concerns and have at times limited defence exports to Turkiye, they largely seek to engage with Turkiye as an important NATO ally that has a key role in security matters in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. This includes seeking defence-industrial opportunities, such as the design support for Turkiye’s Anadolu amphibious assault ship and Kaan fighter-aircraft programmes provided by Spanish company Navantia and the UK’s BAE Systems, respectively.

Putin draws new red line on long-range missiles

Steve Rosenberg

The headline in this morning’s Kommersant newspaper captured the drama.

“Vladimir Putin draws his red line.”

Will the West cross it? And, if it does, how will Russia respond?

Speaking in St Petersburg, President Putin sent a clear warning to the West: don’t allow Ukraine to use your long-range missiles to strike Russian territory.

Moscow, he said, would view that as the “direct participation” of Nato countries in the war in Ukraine.

“It would substantially change the very essence, the nature of the conflict,” the Kremlin leader continued.

“This will mean that Nato countries, the USA and European states, are fighting with Russia.”

He claimed that, for missile launches into Russia, Ukraine would require data from Western satellites and that only servicemen from Nato member states would be able to “input flight missions into these missile systems”.

Russia has drawn red lines before. And seen them crossed before.

Don’t Ask the U.S. Military to Save American Democracy

Peter D. Feaver and Heidi Urben

As former U.S. President Donald Trump takes another run at the White House, many observers worry about how his second term could shape civil-military relations. The Constitution enshrines civilian control over the military, but this relationship has at times been fraught. During Trump’s first term, senior military leaders, both active and recently retired, helped talk the president out of his most dangerous ideas. Critics of the Trump administration were grateful for the way these officers served as the “adults in the room,” but Trump’s supporters, and Trump himself, believe that the military thwarted him from accomplishing all that he wanted to do.

Trump has made it clear that he won’t let that happen again. If he is elected in November, the United States will face a serious test of its system of civilian control over the armed forces. Trump has, for instance, said he would fire the “woke generals at the top” if reelected and that he would consider using the National Guard and the active-duty military to perform sweeping deportations of undocumented migrants. Trump’s impact on civil-military relations is likely to be far greater and more corrosive than it was during his first presidency because he has gained a better understanding of how he can push the military to do his bidding and is more likely to surround himself with officials who fall in line.

Indeed, the conditions are ripe for Trump or future presidents to upset the balance of civil-military relations. A recent Supreme Court ruling that granted presidents considerable immunity from prosecution could encourage Trump to act more recklessly. Trump himself has expressed the desire to use the military in irresponsible ways, breaking with norms that have long guided the military’s deployment and use. Americans must learn—as so many other peoples around the world have—that the military by itself cannot save democracy from a reckless president.

Israel’s ‘Seven-Front War’

Amy Mackinnon

What War Is Israel Fighting?

Is Gaza the war, or just the opening battle in a wider confrontation between Israel and Iran? The answer to that question depends on whom you ask.

In Washington, officials see diplomacy as the answer to de-escalation. Over the past several months, the Biden administration has pursued a three-front diplomatic offensive that aims to strike a cease-fire deal in Gaza; restore quiet to Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, which has seen near-daily exchanges of fire with Hezbollah; and broker a historic normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia in the hopes of bringing about a permanent shift in the restive regional dynamics.

“Once a cease-fire and hostage deal is concluded, it unlocks the possibility of a great deal more progress, including—including calm along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon,” President Joe Biden said in a speech on May 31.

Israeli officials and analysts, meanwhile, have adopted a more expansive concept of the country’s security in the wake of the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks. They often talk of the war in Gaza as just one front in a wider regional confrontation with Iran and its proxies that they now believe must be addressed.

Foreign Investment Trends in Latin America

Latin American countries remain trapped in a low-growth environment, hindered by economic volatility, high inequality and ineffective governance. As a result, many governments in the region are turning to foreign direct investment to spur growth. However, FDI fell by 9.9 percent last year to $184.3 billion. While mergers and acquisitions increased by 15 percent, their total value decreased by 13 percent.

FDI is concentrated in a few countries. Brazil attracted 35 percent of the region’s FDI last year, followed by Mexico with 16 percent. Argentina, boosted by the new government of President Javier Milei, came in third with 13 percent, while Chile and Colombia secured 12 percent and 9 percent, respectively. The U.S. remains the largest investor in the region, with the European Union driving mergers and acquisitions. The EU showed the largest increase in FDI from 2022 to 2023, followed by Canada. China remains active but has diminished its investment role compared to a decade ago.

What does Iran get for sending ballistic missiles to Russia?

Mark N. Katz

Today, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken revealed that Iran has delivered close range ballistic missiles (CRBMs) to Russia, which he expects Russian forces will use against Ukraine within a matter of weeks.

At the same time, the US Department of the Treasury announced the imposition of additional sanctions on Iranian and Russian individuals and entities, including Iran Air. These moves can hardly come as a surprise to Moscow and Tehran and will not serve to get either to change course. The real question is how the Iranian transfer of CRBMs to Russia will affect the Russia-Iran relationship. Specifically: Does Russia’s dependence on Iran, first for armed drones and now for CRBMs, give Tehran a degree of leverage over Moscow? And what would Tehran want to get from Moscow with that leverage?

Iran has long sought Su-35 fighter aircraft and S-400 air defense missile systems from Russia, according to reports, but Moscow has not yet delivered them. As Hanna Notte and Jim Lamson noted in a study published in August, there are many other Russian weapons systems and technologies that Tehran would like to receive. If any of these turn up in Iran, this will be seen as evidence that the transfer of CRBMs to Moscow is indeed a sign of increased Iranian leverage over Russia.

Zelenskyy’s power grab is bad for Ukraine

Jamie Dettmer

“Moving the chairs around.” That was a senior Ukrainian official’s take on the cabinet shake-up announced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last week.

So far, international and domestic media have largely echoed government spin on the matter, claiming this to be the biggest overhaul since Russia invaded Ukraine. But in truth, it isn’t much of a revamp at all. It’s simply a repositioning of some of the dramatis personae that’s been presented as something bigger than it is, the official said, asking to remain anonymous in order to speak more frankly.

“No fresh faces were added from industry, civil society or academia — something that’s been urged on the government for some time,” they noted. And that’s a problem.

The only exceptions to this are the forced departures of Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba and — independent of the cabinet reshuffle — the head of Ukraine’s national power transmission network Ukrenegro, Volodymyr Kudrytskyi. According to the official and other insiders interviewed by POLITICO, Kuleba had irritated Zelenskyy’s powerful chief of staff Andriy Yermak, who wants more control over the ministry.

Dig for Victory — Ukraine Must Fortify in the East

Dyveke Undertun Aarhus and Michael C. DiCianna

There’s always a worry in war that things will suddenly turn against you; that the enemy will advance and that you will lose. Ask Winston Churchill or George Washington.

Ukraine, like 20th-century Britain and 18th-century revolutionary America, is fighting for its existence against a more heavily armed power. The key battleground is Donbas, in the east around towns like Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar, where its forces are losing ground against relentless Russian attacks. That’s not to say that all is lost; far from it.

Fortified defensive positions and grinding, attritional offensives have become a defining feature of the Russo-Ukrainian war. The mechanized Ukrainian counter-offensives — and faster Russian retreats — that liberated Kharkiv and Kherson in 2022 saw no echoes in 2023, as Ukraine’s summer offensive smashed into the walls of the Prigozhin line.

Israel is turning its sights on Hezbollah

Jonathan Spyer

As its Gaza campaign cools, Israel’s attention is returning northwards. Approximately 60,000 Israelis from northern communities are still refugees. A reckoning between Israel and the Lebanese terror group Hezbollah appears to be only a matter of time. Two significant strikes this week suggest that Israel is preparing for a potentially imminent major confrontation, and broadening the scope of its operations on the northern front.

In the first attack, according to reports in Syrian state media, Israeli aircraft hit targets in the Hama area in western Syria on the night of 7-8 September. 18 people were reported killed, and over 43 wounded. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), an opposition-linked website with a network of informants on the ground in Syria, reported that ‘13 violent explosions were heard in the scientific research area in Masyaf, west of Hama. Two Israeli missiles also fell on two sites in the Al-Zawi area in the Masyaf countryside, causing fires in them. The Israeli missiles targeted a site on the Masyaf-Wadi Al-Oyoun road, and another site in the Hayr Abbas area.’ The ‘scientific research center’ referred to here is the Scientific Studies and Research Center (SSRC) – sometimes also referred to as ‘CERS’ – located west of Hama city.

Then, on Wednesday, Israeli aircraft struck 30 targets in southern Lebanon, including Hezbollah rocket launchers and infrastructure used to launch daily attacks on targets in northern Israel. A drone strike in the Qaraoun area deep in the Beqaa Valley in eastern Lebanon on the same day killed Muhammad Qassem al-Shaer, a veteran commander in Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force. The Israeli strikes came in response to a wave of Hezbollah rocket-laden drone and rocket attacks on targets in Israel’s north on Monday.

The Media As Stenographers for the Ruling Class

Rod Dreher

To most observers, even on the political Right, it was hard to avoid the conclusion that Donald Trump lost the debate with Kamala Harris. Trump was unfocused, blustery, and unprepared, leaving many golden opportunities to go after the vice president unexploited. This was entirely Trump’s fault, and there’s no point in pretending otherwise. His debate loss is mostly his fault.

Mostly. It is also true, however, that Trump was put at a disadvantage by the ABC News moderators, who repeatedly intervened to “fact-check” Trump’s statements, but let Harris pass unharassed. Moreover, their questions were sometimes bad jokes. For example, race is a major issue in American politics and culture, and Kamala Harris, who is black, has joined just about every major far-left racialist cause. In 2020, she even promoted a fund to bail out leftists jailed in Minneapolis for race rioting. The Biden-Harris administration has gone all-in on the increasingly unpopular DEI (diversity, equity, inclusion) campaigns.

Of the many substantive and important questions that could have been posed about race, what did David Muir of ABC News put to Trump? He asked Trump why he questioned whether or not Harris is black. This put Trump on the defensive for his dumb remark, and Trump failed to turn the trivial but hostile question around to discuss serious racial conflicts in American life. Nevertheless, this was but one example of how media bias distorts and deforms the campaign process.

Identity in the Trenches: The Fatal Impact of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion on U.S. Military Readiness

Will Thibeau

In August 2021, the world watched as American forces scrambled to evacuate Afghanistan as the Taliban reclaimed power. The panicked withdrawal reached a tragic climax on August 26, when 13 American service members (and more than 100 Afghan civilians) were killed by a suicide bomber in the Kabul airport, where security was a U.S. responsibility. Four days later, when the last military planes took off from that same airport, hundreds of American citizens were left behind. A month later still, when the Secretary of Defense, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), and the CENTCOM commanding general were called before Congress to account for the failure, they neither offered explanations nor accepted responsibility. The message was clear: Incompetence would be the new norm for the U.S. military — a predictably lethal status quo.

The Afghanistan debacle was dramatic, but it was only one small part of a much larger picture. The United States Armed Forces were once the envy of the world, in large part because we selected the best of the best, and instilled in our fighting men an unshakeable military ethos. Both the ethos and the selection, however, have been in steady decline as the Department of Defense succumbs to a dangerous ideology: that of group quotas, or forced outcome equality for identity groups based on race and sex.

Critics of the current state of affairs in our Armed Forces waste precious breath on disturbing but minor issues like reading lists, drag shows, and TikTok trends. This book serves as a call for focus and precision on the prevalence of race and sex-based quotas, and the accompanying collapse in professional standards, in the fight to reclaim the integrity of the institution of the military.

Ukraine Military Situation: Despite Russia’s Offensive Slowing In Eastern Ukraine, Region Remains Volatile – Analysis

Can Kasapoğlu

1. Battlefield Assessment

Though Russia’s offensive is slowing in eastern Ukraine, the region remains volatile and dangerous. Ukraine has deployed National Guard formations and detachments of the Kara-Dag Brigade and the 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade to stabilize the front and conduct tactical counteroffensives.

Nonetheless, the Kremlin has managed to gain territory. The Russian military captured Nevelske, a town near Pokrovsk, and boosted offensive action near Vuhledar. Near Niu-York, south of Toretsk, Ukraine deployed the battle-hardened Azov Brigade to break a dangerous siege and recapture territory. Yet the balance of power in this sector still favors Russia.

In the Russian region of Kursk, Ukrainian forces continue to occupy significant territory and have maintained an attritional operational tempo. General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander in chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, stated that his units now control more than 100 settlements in an area encompassing 500 square miles and stretching 21 miles inside Russia. Kyiv’s surprise campaign has reportedly also captured 600 prisoners of war.

Following an initial tactical shock, the Russian military has started to deploy firm combat formations to augment its defensive operations. Open-source intelligence suggests that the Russian General Staff has fielded detachments of naval infantry and Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) units to the Kursk region.

Could AI swamp social media with fake accounts?

David Silverberg

Whether it's getting cookery advice or help with a speech, ChatGPT has been the first opportunity for many people to play with an artificial intelligence (AI) system.

ChatGPT is based an an advanced language processing technology, developed by OpenAI.

The artificial intelligence (AI) was trained using text databases from the internet, including books, magazines and Wikipedia entries. In all 300 billion words were fed into the system.

The end result is a Chatbot that can seem eerily human, but with an encyclopedic knowledge.

Tell ChatGPT what you have in your kitchen cabinet and it will give you a recipe. Need a snappy intro to a big presentation? No problem.

But is it too good? Its convincing approximation of human responses could be a powerful tool for those up to no good.

Academics, cybersecurity researchers and AI experts warn that ChatGPT could be used by bad actors to sow dissent and spread propaganda on social media.

16 September 2024

Rethinking Economic Warfare with China

Adam Leslie & Mariana Rosado-Rivera

In recent years, the Chinese Communist Party has waged an aggressive economic campaign against the United States and Australia in the Indo-Pacific to achieve economic and technological dominance. Through predatory economic policies, coercive Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI), and large-scale industrial espionage, China is working towards regional hegemony in the Indo-Pacific. Given China’s notion of unrestricted warfare—which includes economics, trade, finances, and technology as domains—the United States and Australia must adapt and respond to this threat.

China’s Economic Warfare Tactics

The CCP’s campaign for economic and technological dominance is a strategic effort to alter Western responses without risking direct military conflict. This approach, often termed “gray zone” activities, blurs the lines between peace and war. By exploiting the lack of a comprehensive Western strategy, China seeks to circumvent U.S. dominance in conventional warfare, as evidenced in the Indo-Pacific, where the United States struggles to maintain focus and where Australia’s efforts are overstretched and uncoordinated with allied initiatives.

India’s Secret New Submarine Could Be the Key to Preventing a Nuclear War With China

Sébastien Roblin

On August 29, India’s defense minister presided over the commissioning ceremony of S3 Arighat, the country’s second-ever home-built nuclear-powered submarine. The nuclear-armed sub is a manifestation of India’s progress toward deploying a diversified “triad” of of air, sea, and land-based nukes. At the same time, the U.S. and its allies are seeking deeper military cooperation with the Indian Navy due to mutual tensions with Beijing. So, the overall goal is to provide round-the-clock sea-based nuclear deterrence—especially against China.

Arighat, which translates to “slayer of enemies,” and the preceding Arihant submarine, which the new ship is based on, are initial stepping stones in the Indian Navy’s ambitious program to build a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines loaded with nuclear-armed ballistic missiles.

Rather than hunting enemy ships, ballistic missile submarines (also known as “boomers” or SSBNs) lurk quietly in hiding. They await a signal transmitted from national leadership via very-low-frequency radio before releasing a volley of nuclear ballistic missiles on distant targets.

Did The September 11 Attacks Start And End US ‘Forever Wars’? – Analysis

Michael Scollon

In the immediate aftermath of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks against the United States, Secretary of State Colin Powell gave assurances that America would deal with the tragedy by bringing those responsible to justice while protecting the world’s democracies.

“They will never be allowed to kill the spirit of democracy,” Powell said. “They cannot destroy our society. They cannot destroy our belief in the democratic way.”

President George W. Bush, who won office in 2000 as a candidate who would be cautious about committing U.S. troops to foreign wars, quickly made fighting global terrorism a top policy, and set about establishing an international “coalition of the willing” to carry out the mission.

The U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan had the primary goal of punishing the Al-Qaeda terrorist network, which had been given refuge in Afghanistan and carried out the deadly 9/11 attacks. And once on Afghan soil, Washington quickly ousted the Taliban regime accused of sheltering Al-Qaeda from power.

Costly Campaign

But the U.S. experience in Afghanistan ultimately ended in failure, and with the hard-line Taliban group back in power. The nearly 20-year war ended with immense costs in terms of lives lost and money spent. And it made the U.S. public and politicians on both sides of the aisle in Washington reluctant to get involved in “forever wars” that could not be won.

On U.S. Steel, America Must Not Take Our Allies For Granted

Heino Klinck

The proposed $14.9 billion merger between U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel has sparked a heated debate in Washington. As someone who has spent a significant portion of my career fostering U.S.-East Asia relations, I find the opposition to this deal on national security grounds frankly difficult to understand. It is not only hypocritical and inconsistent with our long-standing alliance with Japan, but there are no national security concerns that can serve as legitimate reasons to reject this deal.

For seventy-two years and running, Japan has been one of America’s oldest and most trusted allies. President Biden himself has repeatedly emphasized the strength of this relationship. In a joint statement with Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, Biden declared, “The U.S.-Japan Alliance has reached unprecedented heights. Our nations, individually and together, took courageous steps to strengthen our collective capacity in ways that would have seemed impossible just a few years ago.”

This sentiment was echoed by senior administration officials who have consistently highlighted Japan’s critical role in the region. Most notably, Democratic presidential nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris said during her trip to Tokyo in September 2022 that our alliance with Japan is “a cornerstone of what we believe is integral to peace, stability, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region.”

Japan Restructures to Create ‘Fleet Information Warfare’ Comman

Christine Casimiro

The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) is overhauling its intelligence operations, replacing its Fleet Intelligence Command with the soon-to-be-established “Fleet Information Warfare Command.”

In a major restructuring move, several key JMSDF units — including the Fleet Intelligence Command, Oceanography ASW Support Command, Guard Post, and Communications Command — will be merged into a single, unified entity focused on information warfare.

The new Fleet Information Warfare Command will then comprise two groups, Operational Intelligence and Cyber Defense.

It will carry out a broad range of information warfare (IW) duties, such as enemy movement analysis, submarine sound signature analysis, cyber warfare, electronic warfare, and C4ISR.

This reorganization will enable Japan’s Navy “to strengthen response capabilities to information warfare, including in the cognitive domain, and to establish a system capable of rapid decision-making,” according to the country’s Ministry of Defense.

Former JMSDF intelligence officer Kenji Yoshinaga revealed to Naval News that this new command was modeled after the US Fleet Cyber Command/US 10th Fleet.

The 12 elements of cold war 2.0

Graeme Dobell

The contours of a new and dangerous era are in place. The world has gone from a chilly peace to a new cold war.

Cold war 2.0 has rhymes from version 1.0, yet the origin stories emphasise the differences.

The 20th century cold war was bred by victory and failure, a child of war and depression; ideology was its heart as two secular religions—communism and democracy—fought Europe’s last ‘religious’ war.

The new cold war carries less ideological baggage, born from decades of peace in Europe and Asia and a wonderful period of economic and scientific achievement.

Version 2.0 draws on the successes of globalisation in the post-cold war space, a golden age. But that warmth has faded and turned icy as it veers away from borderless optimism to revive the contest of great powers.

Is US losing the AI arms race to China?

James Johnson

The US government, long a proponent of advancing technology for military purposes, sees artificial intelligence as key to the next generation of fighting tools.

Several recent investments and Pentagon initiatives show that military leaders are concerned about keeping up with – and ahead of – China and Russia, two countries that have made big gains in developing artificial-intelligence systems.

AI-powered weapons include target recognition systems, weapons guided by AI, and cyberattack and cyber defense software that runs without human intervention.

The US defense community is coming to understand that AI will significantly transform, if not completely reinvent, the world’s military power balance. The concern is more than military.

As Chinese and Russian technologies become more sophisticated, they threaten US domination of technological innovation and development, as well as global economic power and influence.

Is Gaza war feeding ISIS resurgeance in Middle East?

Ali Rizk

Recent developments suggest that the ISIS threat has metastasized to a level that the United States believes requires stronger action.

In the span of less than a week, U.S. forces conducted two major operations targeting the group’s forces in Syria and Iraq. A broad joint U.S.-Iraqi operation was launched in Anbar province that reportedly killed at least 14 ISIS militants and was followed by the capture of an ISIS leader accused of assisting members of the terrorist group who had escaped detention in Syria.

The two operations indicate that the U.S. military is taking a more aggressive approach to the terrorist group than in recent years. A report by the New York Times described the Anbar operation, with over 100 U.S. Special Operations forces taking part, as one of the largest-scale anti-ISIS offensives conducted in Iraq since the fall of the caliphate in 2019. American commandos reportedly led the initial raid of the operation during which seven U.S. soldiers suffered injuries.

Iran can’t save Hamas

Patrick Hess

Another week, another Gaza ceasefire proposal. CIA Director William Burns, speaking alongside MI6 Director Richard Moore, recently told an audience in London that a new US-backed proposal would be put forward in the coming days. Burns has had the thankless task of leading US efforts to broker a truce between Hamas and Israel.

Currently, negotiations have stalled over the Philadelphi Corridor, the strip of land along the Gaza-Egypt border, under which the IDF says it has discovered dozens of tunnels used by Hamas to smuggle weapons and ammunition. Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israel must maintain a presence there to prevent its use as a rearmament route. Hamas, implicitly agreeing with this interpretation, has said such a presence would constitute a red line.

The singular focus on rearmament routes shows that Israel is confident that it has, as it stands, neutralised the threat from Gaza. The initial war aim of destroying Hamas was always slightly vague and overly maximalist. But after 10 months of war, Israel has devastated Hamas’s military capabilities and infrastructure, killed thousands of its fighters and assassinated many of its leaders, enough for Netanyahu to be able to plausibly declare victory.

Rise Of Far Right In 2024 And Weakening Of Western Liberal Democracy In Europe: A Southeast Asian Perspective – Analysis

Simon Hutagalung

The rise of far-right movements in Europe in 2024 reflects deep-seated concerns about identity, economic security, and governance. Once considered fringe political elements, far-right parties have gained significant traction in national parliaments, shaping public discourse and challenging the core tenets of liberal democracy.

This shift has highlighted a broader weakening of Western democratic institutions, marked by growing polarisation, distrust in political systems, and declining faith in the European Union (EU). As Europe grapples with these issues, Southeast Asia’s experience with multiculturalism, political resilience, and balancing sovereignty with regional cooperation provides valuable lessons. The rise of far-right movements reveals profound crises, but with thoughtful reforms, Europe can counter these challenges and restore its democratic foundations.

Economic Factors and Political Disillusionment

One of the key drivers behind the rise of the far right in Europe is economic instability, which has persisted since the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic exacerbated existing vulnerabilities, from inflation to unemployment, leading to economic discontent across the continent. In particular, rising living costs, wage stagnation, and weakened social safety nets have disproportionately affected lower-income groups, fuelling frustration with traditional political parties.

How the US Army is rethinking howitzers

SHAUN MCDOUGALL

The U.S. Army’s search for its next howitzer remains in motion, six months after service leaders scrapped efforts to upgun its current M109 Paladin self-propelled howitzer.

Even as the Army was terminating the ERCA program in March, the service was reinvigorating its search for a longer-ranged Paladin replacement to serve until 2040 and beyond. Its fiscal 2025 budget request included $8 million for initial next-generation howitzer studies.

Meanwhile, service leaders are surveying the existing field. An industry day was held in April, attended by representatives from American Rheinmetall, AM General, BAE Systems, Elbit, Hanwha, and Krauss-Maffei Wegmann. This group builds a mix of wheeled and tracked options: Rheinmetall and KMW jointly produce the tracked PzH-2000; KMW also has the wheeled RCH 155; AM General makes the Brutus system that can be equipped on a truck; incumbent BAE Systems has tested the Paladin with a Rheinmetall L52 cannon, and the company also manufactures the wheeled Archer howitzer; Elbit makes the wheeled M454; and Hanwha produces the tracked K9 Thunder.

DARPA ‘quantum skeptic’ challenges industry: Prove me wrong

Sydney J. Freedberg Jr.

As entrepreneurs, researchers, and executives gather this week at the Quantum World Congress outside Washington, how can anyone cut through the hype and figure out which nascent technology has real potential? That’s why DARPA has issued an open challenge to anyone developing a quantum computer to submit themselves to rigorous government testing, led by a self-described “quantum skeptic.”

The deadline to submit a brief abstract of one’s project is Sept. 19. That date is not negotiable, warned program manager Joe Altepeter, who’s heading what the agency announced in July as the Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI). Contenders deemed promising will be eligible, for starters, for $1 million to help their testing, but DARPA expects them to be spending that much and more of their own money.

“I have a reputation in the DARPA building as a quantum skeptic,” Altepeter said in an interview with Breaking Defense. “I was definitely the reviewer you absolutely did not want to get on your quantum submission, because I measured my success based on how much money I could save the US taxpayer by not funding dumb quantum ideas — and trust me, there are plenty of dumb quantum ideas to go around.”

Forgotten Wars: The Essequibo Crisis

Matteo Balzarini Zane

The historical roots of the conflict between Venezuela and Guyana go back to 1899 when an international arbitration court awarded the largest territory of Essequibo to British Guiana. Since then, Venezuela has argued that the decision was unfair, and has tried several times to revise the terms of the decision. The dispute was unresolved for decades until the discovery of some 11 billion barrels of oil off the coast of Essequibo a few months ago revived Caracas' interest.

The situation worsened in December 2023, when the Venezuelan government held a referendum in which Essequibo's unilateral merger was approved by a majority. Although the result was expected, the turnout was lower than expected, suggesting that the Venezuelan population is less enthusiastic than the government had hoped. However, President Nicolas Maduro used the election to consolidate his internal power, accusing the opposition and foreign entities such as ExxonMobil of opposing Venezuela's sovereignty.

International reactions to the referendum were swift. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has condemned moves aimed at changing the current borders, and many countries, including the United States, have expressed their support for the Guyanese monarchy. At the regional level, the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) confirmed its support for Georgetown, while other South American countries, led by Brazil, expressed concern about the instability in the region.

Blocking the Nippon Steel Acquisition: Politics Versus Policy

Matthew P. Goodman

Reports that President Joe Biden has decided to block the proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel by Japan-based Nippon Steel have created a stir in Washington. If true, a decision to block the deal would be widely understood to be a political move to appeal to voters in Pennsylvania and the industrial Midwest. Politics matters, but so does policy, and neither would be well served by this action.

It is difficult to see what U.S. policy objectives would be advanced by a decision to block the Nippon Steel transaction. Indeed, the move would do damage to three of the Biden administration’s own policy priorities: First, it would weaken U.S. economic competitiveness and supply-chain resilience. U.S. Steel has been unprofitable for most of the past fifteen years, and the billions of dollars that Nippon Steel proposes to invest in modernizing U.S. Steel’s plants in Pennsylvania and Indiana would likely save American jobs and help make the company more competitive against China’s now-dominant producers. Blocking the deal could have a chilling effect on other prospective foreign investment into the United States, which the administration has touted as strengthening the U.S. economy and reducing vulnerabilities caused by far-flung supply chains.

Israel and the Coming Long War

Assaf Orion

In the weeks since late July, when Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran and Hezbollah senior commander Fuad Shukr was killed in Beirut, there has been much speculation about the eruption of a wider conflict in the Middle East. According to this view, if Iran and Hezbollah choose to retaliate through major direct attacks on Israel, they could transform Israel’s current campaign in Gaza into a regional war. In this scenario, Israeli forces would then be engaged in high-intensity fighting on multiple fronts against multiple armed groups, terrorist militias, and a nuclear-threshold state’s military equipped with a huge arsenal of long-range missiles and drones.

In some ways, this wider regional war is already at hand. From the outset, “the Gaza war” was a misnomer. Ever since Hamas’s heinous October 7 attack nearly one year ago, Israel has faced not one but numerous antagonists in what has already become one of the longest wars since Israel’s founding. The day after Hamas’s assault from Gaza, Hezbollah began attacking Israel from Lebanon, declaring that it would continue its attacks as long as the fighting in Gaza continued. Shortly thereafter, the Houthis in Yemen also joined in, launching continual attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea and launching missiles and drones at Israel, including one that exploded in central Tel Aviv.

Meanwhile, Shiite militias in Iraq, and sometimes Syria, have also menaced Israel with drones and rockets. And in mid-April, after Israel carried out a deadly airstrike near an Iranian diplomatic complex in Damascus, Iran retaliated by launching more than 350 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones at Israel, creating a new precedent for direct and open combat between the two countries. At the same time, Iran has been flooding the West Bank with funds and weapons to encourage terrorist attacks against Israel and undermine security within Israel itself.

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