This Energy Crisis Is Undoing the Last Ones

Giuliana Chamedes

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The standard story of the post-World War II international economic order is not wrong, but it is incomplete. Traditional accounts tell us that the alliance between Western Europe and the United States was consolidated immediately after World War II, as a result of the Bretton Woods order, which pegged global currencies to the U.S. dollar and stabilized global economic governance via the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. They explain that the partnership was further strengthened by the conclusion of the Marshall Plan at the start of the Cold War and, in 1957, with the founding of the European Economic Community.

In reality, it was the three major oil shocks of the postwar period—in 1956, 1973, and 1978-79—that helped confirm the alliance between Western Europe and the United States, laying the foundation for today’s political and economic order. They also explain its fragility.

Tech has broken our entire world model, but we are in denial

Gabriel Elefteriu

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Geopolitics is in flux, history has “returned”, there is war, political upheaval and technological disruption everywhere: These matters command an overwhelming share of global attention and public intellectual discourse. Yet the most important transformation for the collective destiny of mankind, the redefinition of the individual, is unfolding and deepening in relative quiet and with comparatively little debate.

We are not simply living through yet another Industrial Revolution – the fourth one, as technologists claim – or through just another great historical rearrangement of world order, as geopoliticians observe. However large their scope, these are true but not sufficient descriptions of our current moment.

Bleak Future For Multilateralism – Analysis

P. K. Balachandran

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In recent times, one has been seeing international associations (a few of them deemed to be “iron clad”) cracking up or showing internal strains that could result in their dissolution. At the same time, there appears to be an increasing tendency among countries to opt out of multilateral treaties and go in for more suitable and better tailored bilateral arrangements.

The future of organizations like SAARC, NATO, OPEC, BRICS, SCO, BIMSTEC and RECP is bleak.

The case of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) comes to mind immediately. The Cold War vintage NATO has seen unprecedented strain in the last couple of months over US President Donald Trump’s unilateral war against Iran. Its fulcrum, the United States, had threatened to quit it after its European members refused to help President Trump forcibly open the Strait of Hormuz.

2026 Global Counterspace Capabilities Report

Victoria Samson and Kathleen Brett

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Space security has become an increasingly salient policy issue. Over the last several years, there has been growing concern from multiple governments over the reliance on vulnerable space capabilities for national security, and the corresponding proliferation of offensive counterspace capabilities that could be used to disrupt, deny, degrade, or destroy space systems. This in turn has led to increased rhetoric from some countries about the need to prepare for future conflicts on Earth to extend into space, and calls from some corners to increase the development of offensive counterspace capabilities and put in place more aggressive policies and postures.

We feel strongly that a more open and public debate on these issues is urgently needed. Space is not the sole domain of militaries and intelligence services. Our global society and economy is increasingly dependent on space capabilities, and a future conflict in space could have massive, long-term negative repercussions that are felt here on Earth. Even testing of these capabilities could have long-lasting negative repercussions for the space environment, and all who operate there. The public should be as aware of the developing threats and risks of different policy options as would be the case for other national security issues in the air, land, and sea domains.

Global Economy in the Shadow of War

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After withstanding higher trade barriers and elevated uncertainty last year, global activity now faces a major test from the outbreak of war in the Middle East. Assuming that the conflict remains limited in duration and scope, global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027. Global headline inflation is projected to rise modestly in 2026 before resuming its decline in 2027. Slowdown in growth and increase in inflation are expected to be particularly pronounced in emerging market and developing economies.

Downside risks dominate the outlook. A longer or broader conflict, worsening geopolitical fragmentation, a reassessment of expectations surrounding artificial‑intelligence‑driven productivity, or renewed trade tensions could significantly weaken growth and destabilize financial markets. Elevated public debt and eroding institutional credibility further heighten vulnerabilities. At the same time, activity could be lifted if productivity gains from AI materialize more rapidly or trade tensions ease on a sustained basis.

UN Peace Operations and the Role of the Peacebuilding Fund

Lauren McGowan

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As the UN reexamines the future of its peace operations amid shifting geopolitical dynamics and financial constraints, greater attention is being paid to how to leverage peacebuilding tools, including to support more coherent and sustainable transitions. In this context, the Peacebuilding Fund (PBF) has emerged as a central instrument for bridging operational, programmatic, and financial gaps—particularly in settings where peace operations are drawing down or have recently withdrawn.

This policy paper examines the role of the PBF in UN peace operations contexts. Since its inception, the PBF has invested over $1.3 billion through nearly 700 projects in countries hosting UN peace operations. The paper finds that the PBF has been leveraged as a support mechanism, a strategic enabler, and a political tool. It also finds that the PBF has played an important role in supporting sustainable UN transitions. At the same time, while the PBF is a flexible and catalytic instrument, it is not a substitute for peace operations, and expectations regarding its role must remain realistic.

Tremors in the Middle East: UAE’s OPEC Exit and the Iran War reshaping the Global Order

Navroop Singh and Himja Parekh

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The Middle East stands at a historic inflection point. On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates’ abrupt withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1 has dismantled the cartel’s third-largest producer at a time when the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has already closed the Strait of Hormuz, spiked global oil prices above $110 per barrel, and triggered emergency dollar-swap requests from Abu Dhabi. This is no mere technical dispute over quotas. 

It crystallizes a deeper fracture: the failure of an audacious Israeli-American regime-change gamble against Tehran, the acceleration of Saudi-Emirati proxy wars from Sudan to Somaliland, and the UAE’s exposed vulnerability as a resource-poor financial entrepôt now tethered exclusively to Washington and Tel Aviv. What follows unpacks the sequence of strategic miscalculations, the intensifying Gulf rivalry, and the sweeping geopolitical realignments that have left Abu Dhabi increasingly vulnerable

Mercenaries At The Frontier: Dissecting An Emerging Regional Security Challenge In South And Southeast Asia – Analysis

Md. Himel Rahman

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Two years earlier, while the author was conducting key informant interviews (KIIs) for his thesis on private military contractors (PMCs), a retired senior officer of the Bangladesh Army had opined that the conflicts in South and Southeast Asia are different in nature from the conflicts in Africa, West Asia, and East Europe, and PMCs are unlikely to play an important role in this region. However, recent events, such as the arrest of one United States (US) and six Ukrainian citizens in India on the charge of mercenary activities, demonstrate the growing involvement of PMCs in the multitudes of complex conflicts in this region. Taking into account the recent phase of the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA), this development demonstrates the emergence of a new and complicated threat to the national security of regional states.

The shadow fleet is undermining the maritime order more brazenly than ever

Elisabeth Braw

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In 2026, the Baltic Sea countries, France, India, and others have inspected and detained more shadow-fleet vessels than in prior years. In response, Russian military vessels have begun escorting shadow vessels through the English Channel and Baltic Sea. Some Iranian shadow vessels have been able to sail despite the war in Iran and Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. A not insignificant number have also managed to evade the United States’ blockade of Iranian ports.

Since the end of 2022, the shadow fleet—a large and growing group of ships that sail outside the official shipping system—has been in the news because of its role transporting sanctioned Russian oil. In March 2026, Iranian shadow vessels began attracting attention as well, as they have been able to keep sailing despite one and then two blockades amid the war in Iran.

From Ballistics to Cruise: Türkiye’s Missile Developments

Sıtkı Egeli

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Spurred by regional threats and the goal of defence-industrial autonomy, Türkiye has and continues to develop a broad and increasingly capable missile portfolio spanning ballistic and cruise designs, transforming its guided-weapons sector in the process.

Regional missile threats and a desire for defence-industrial autonomy have motivated Ankara to build a broad portfolio of ballistic and cruise missiles. During the Cold War, Türkiye’s status as a NATO frontier state bordering the Soviet Union made it a theatre for potential ballistic-missile exchanges. Rather than pursuing indigenous missiles, Türkiye relied on NATO’s collective defence, nuclear guarantees from the United States and the deterrent value of its air power.

Nato says 'no provision' to expel members after report US could seek to suspend Spain

Source: BBC  |  Author: Amy Walker

Summary:

NATO has clarified that its founding treaty contains no provisions to suspend or expel member states. This statement follows reports of a leaked Pentagon email suggesting the US might seek to punish allies—specifically proposing the suspension of Spain—for failing to support US military actions against Iran. Spain recently refused to allow the US to use its military bases for attacks on Iranian targets, citing international law. The email also proposed reassessing US diplomatic support for the UK's claim to the Falkland Islands. Despite US frustrations over perceived allied inaction, European leaders and NATO have firmly dismissed the threats, reaffirming alliance unity.

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The New Trade Order Restoring Balance to a Broken Global Economy

Robert E. Lighthizer

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At the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos this past January, dozens of senior officials from around the world sat alongside multinational CEOs, fresh off their private jets, and applauded Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney for what they saw as speaking truth to power. Carney gave an address inspired by a 1978 essay by Vaclav Havel, who was then a Czech poet and Soviet dissident and later served as his country’s first president in the postcommunist era. The essay, titled “The Power of the Powerless,” sought to explain how the communist system survived. 

In it, Havel imagined a greengrocer who, like all the shopkeepers around him, places a sign in his window that reads “Workers of the World, Unite!”—even though none of them believe in the communist system. Havel called this “living within a lie” and argued that the Soviet dystopia could come to an end when that archetypal shopkeeper decided he could no longer play along and took the sign down.

New Internet of Things Plan Targets Global Infrastructure

Matthew Johnson

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A new action plan for the Internet of Things (IoT) increases the possibility that Chinese-built connected infrastructure in the United States could become a platform for data access, cyber pre-positioning, and attacks on U.S. cyber-physical systems in a prolonged crisis or confrontation.

The plan, launched jointly by nine ministries, defines IoT as a total cyber-physical environment that links “people, machines, and things” across sensing, networks, platforms, applications, and security, and sets targets for 10 billion terminal connections, more than 50 standards, and deployment across production, consumption, and governance.

Back to Basics at the U.N.

Daniel Forti

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Diplomats at the United Nations will soon hold formal hearings with the current candidates for the organization’s next secretary-general. They will discuss topics ranging from climate change to human rights. But many participants will be listening most closely to what the would-be leaders have to say about the U.N.’s mandate to maintain international peace and security.

Both the U.N.’s current secretary-general, António Guterres, and its member states have downplayed peace and security in discussions about the organization’s future. They believed that, in a period of big-power competition, the U.N. was better positioned to help broker agreements on issues like climate change, artificial intelligence, and pandemic response.

The Global AI Threat Has Arrived

S. ALEX YANG and ANGELA HUYUE ZHANG

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The ability of Anthropic’s new AI model, Claude Mythos Preview, to find vulnerabilities across major operating systems and web browsers has dangerous implications for today’s highly interconnected world. Instead of merely securing its own firms, the United States must address the problem through diplomacy, particularly with China.

LONDON/LOS ANGELES—Anthropic’s new AI model, Claude Mythos Preview, has alarmed business leaders and policymakers around the world because of its extraordinary ability to find and exploit vulnerabilities in major operating systems and web browsers. Even the Trump administration, which has feuded with Anthropic in recent months over certain military uses of its models, now seems keen to work with the company to protect critical government infrastructure from cyberattacks.

How Big of a Threat Is Mythos?

Rishi Iyengar

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It sounds like the beginning of a nightmare scenario that artificial intelligence doomsayers have been warning about: This month, Silicon Valley AI company Anthropic said it had developed a model so dangerous that the company had decided against releasing it to the public.

The model, known as Claude Mythos Preview, is a general-purpose language model like Anthropic’s Claude or OpenAI’s ChatGPT. But during testing, it showed an ability to find and exploit so-called “zero day” vulnerabilities—an industry term that refers to previously undiscovered holes in a system’s software. The model “could reshape cybersecurity” because it found “thousands of high-severity vulnerabilities” in “every major operating system and web browser,” Anthropic said. It made those claims in a blog post announcing that it would open up Mythos only to a few dozen companies and critical infrastructure operators. That collective, which Anthropic named Project Glasswing, includes Amazon Web Services, Apple, Google, JPMorganChase, Microsoft, and Nvidia as companies that will receive early access to the model to patch vulnerabilities in their systems.

Middle East Oil Pricing Is Cracking Under Pressure

Alex Kimani 

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In a “perilous position,” the Platts Dubai benchmark, which used to price around 18 million barrels per day, nearly a fifth of global supply, is now severely strained by the halt in exports through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Reuters, with most cargoes having been unable to move safely through the chokepoint, the system is grappling with a fundamental question of how to price oil that cannot be loaded. The situation remains largely unchanged as of today, despite Washington’s announcement that the Strait is officially open for business again. The Platts Dubai benchmark depends on crude produced in the UAE, Oman, and Qatar, much of it loaded within the Strait. But since the outbreak of conflict, tanker traffic has slowed dramatically, leaving the benchmark disconnected from physical reality. Platts has responded by cutting deliverable grades from five to two--Murban and Oman--reducing supply in the pricing basket by roughly 40%.

Market participants have told Reuters the benchmark is “effectively broken,” with some stepping back from trading Dubai-linked cargoes or derivatives altogether. Others are shifting activity toward exchange-based mechanisms, particularly Murban Futures on IFAD, where pricing continues to function even as physical-linked benchmarks come under strain.

The Road to 2040: A Summary of Our Forecast

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In this glimpse into the next 19 years, we forecast several significant changes and disruptions in the global structure, which will be summarized here. However, one fact that will not change is the United States’ position as the sole global power. Over the next 19 years, it will adopt a new strategy to maintain power at the lowest possible cost. This strategy will resemble isolationism, in that the U.S. will not be drawn into regional military conflicts in any significant capacity. The U.S. will support its allies with supplies, training and some air power, however, it will contain regional problems in Europe, the Middle East and Asia, rather than directly and forcibly engaging. This will prove to be a prudent strategy and help the U.S. sustain its global dominance.

In Europe, the European Union as an institution will collapse or redefine itself as a more modest trade zone encompassing a smaller part of the continent. The current free trade structure is unsustainable because its members, particularly Germany, have grown overly dependent on exports. This dependency makes these economies extremely vulnerable to fluctuations in demand outside of their own borders. Germany is the most vulnerable country and will experience economic decline due to inevitable fluctuations in the export market.

The Return of Power in a Fragmenting World

Eko Ernada

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For much of the post-Cold War era, globalisation was presented not merely as a trajectory but as a universal pathway, one that would integrate economies, societies, and political systems into a shared, increasingly cooperative order. This narrative, however, was never neutral. It reflected a particular historical moment shaped by Western dominance, in which globalisation appeared as both an economic process and a normative project. It promised a future where interdependence would soften geopolitical rivalry and constrain the exercise of power. 

Today, that promise appears less like an inevitability and more like a historical assumption under strain. Rather than dissolving geopolitics, globalisation is increasingly being reshaped by it. Building on Eswar Prasad’s analysis in Foreign Affairs (2026), this article argues that the current shift is not simply a disruption of globalisation, but a revealing moment, one that exposes how global economic integration has always been entangled with power, hierarchy, and strategic interest.

Iran, the Global Economy, and the Case Against Complacency

Michael Froman

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Every spring, central bank governors and finance ministers from around the world gather in Washington for the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank to discuss the state of the global economy, macroeconomic coordination, and financial sector management. The topic dominating discussions this year is the war in Iran—and the ensuing economic fallout.

I sat down with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva last week for a curtain raiser conversation ahead of the Spring Meetings. We discussed the Fund’s macroeconomic outlook, including its latest analysis on how the war is affecting global growth, inflation, and economic stability. I left with a number of takeaways.