The intensification of great power competition in the 21st century has transformed Pakistan from a peripheral actor into a central prize in the strategic rivalry between the United States and China. This "New Great Game" represents a contemporary iteration of classical geopolitical competition, wherein major powers vie for influence over strategically located middle powers.
Pakistan's unique positionรขas the sole Muslim nuclear power, a gateway to Central Asia, and a critical node in China's Belt and Road Initiativeรขhas made it an indispensable asset for both Beijing and Washington in their broader competition for global influence.
Pakistan's strategic value derives not merely from its geographical location, but from its ability to serve multiple functions simultaneously: as China's corridor to the Arabian Sea, America's security lever in South Asia, and a potential source of critical minerals essential to modern warfare and technology. The recent Chinese loan rollover of $3.4 billion and President Trump's hosting of Pakistan's Army Chief at the White House exemplify the heightened attention both superpowers are directing towards Islamabad.
China's strategic approach: The CPEC paradigm
China's engagement with Pakistan represents a long-term strategic investment designed to address fundamental vulnerabilities in Beijing's global position. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), launched in 2013 with over $62 billion in committed investments, serves as the flagship project of China's Belt and Road Initiative in South Asia. However, CPEC's significance extends far beyond infrastructure development.
The development of Gwadar Port, situated at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, constitutes China's most significant strategic asset in the region. This deep-water port provides Beijing with direct access to energy-rich West Asia whilst circumventing the vulnerable Malacca Strait, through which approximately 80% of China's oil imports currently transit. The recent $3.4 billion loan rolloverรขcomprising $2.1 billion in reserve deposits and $1.3 billion in refinancingรขdemonstrates China's commitment to maintaining this strategic relationship regardless of Pakistan's economic difficulties.
China's approach to Pakistan can be characterised as "strategic patience"รขproviding unconditional financial support whilst gradually building institutional dependencies. Unlike Western donors, Chinese assistance comes without governance conditionalities or human rights requirements, making it particularly attractive to Pakistan's military establishment. This approach has enabled China to secure not only commercial advantages but also potential military positioning in the Indian Ocean region.
American recalibration: The Trump doctrine
The Trump administration's approach to Pakistan marked a significant departure from previous American policies, which had oscillated between engagement and estrangement based on Pakistan's cooperation in counterterrorism operations. The June 2025 White House lunch hosted by President Trump for Pakistan's Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, symbolised a new American strategy focused on direct engagement with Pakistan's military leadership rather than its civilian government.
This approach reflects a pragmatic acknowledgement of Pakistan's power structures and an attempt to counterbalance Chinese influence through military-to-military cooperation. The approval of a $397 million upgrade package for Pakistan's F-16 fighter aircraft, concurrent with discussions of F-35 sales to India, demonstrates America's willingness to compartmentalise its South Asian relationships rather than viewing them through a zero-sum lens.
The American strategy appears designed to prevent Pakistan's complete drift into China's sphere of influence whilst maintaining flexibility in broader South Asian policy. By engaging directly with Pakistan's military leadership, Washington seeks to preserve intelligence cooperation, maintain access to Central Asian operations, and ensure continued Pakistani cooperation in regional security matters.