US withdrawal from Afghanistan: Implications for India

By: Alok Bansal
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Reports emanating from the United States Department of Defence indicate that the US is all set to pull out all its troops from Afghanistan this year itself. This could result in the US withdrawal well before the timeline agreed to in the US-Taliban deal that was negotiated in February 2020.

Once implemented this could bring an end to the longest war in the US history. The US government is rushing through the motions, as pulling out of Afghanistan could possibly bolster President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign, which has come under severe strain after his handling of the Covid-19 crisis.

However, the million-dollar question is: will the US withdrawal usher in peace? One needs to understand that for a long time now, the US forces were not in the forefront of fighting the Taliban or its numerous splintered associates and adversaries. The fight against the Taliban and other terrorist outfits has largely been carried out by the Afghan National Army (ANA) and the Afghan National Police. The US forces were occasionally called upon to provide support, as the nascent Afghan Air Force does not possess adequate firepower to provide close air support to the Afghan National Security Force (ANSF).

Unity Can Help Afghanistan Persevere

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As Afghanistan moves toward reclaiming full sovereignty in the wake of the planned departure of international troops and possible peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban, the country’s political elites in particular and Afghans in general need to unite to preserve their country’s republican democracy and the path to peace and prosperity.

In the past few decades and in recent years in particular, Afghans have sometimes felt they’re given a backseat in shaping their destiny. There has been a lot of talk about the endgame in Afghanistan since the 2014 drawdown plan of international troops -- as if the suffering of millions of Afghans is just another sport. Despite the major drawdown and significant political developments since then, including the signing of the US-Taliban accord on February 29, the bloodshed in Afghanistan continues. This is true except for the brief cease-fire during the recent Eid al-Fitr holidays, when the Taliban stopped attacks to ensure the release of their prisoners.

While Afghans continue to bury their dead and suffer all kinds of unimaginable violence, most major state players in Afghanistan’s 42-year-old war have been playing double games. They preach and say one thing but do the exact opposite in practice. One need look no further than what’s stopping the commencement of intra-Afghan dialogue and cease-fire when all the processes required for it have already started.

The U.S. Needs a New Grand Strategy for Asia

By DANIEL TENREIRO

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Chinese President Xi Jinping and other officials applaud after the vote on the national security legislation for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, May 28, 2020. (Carlos Garcia Rawlins/Reuters)Asia’s New Geopolitics: Essays on Reshaping the Indo-Pacific, by Michael R. Auslin (Hoover Institution Press, 262 pp., $29.95)

Since World War II, more American soldiers have perished in East Asia than anywhere else. The twin imperatives of containing Communism and maintaining the regional balance of power drew U.S. forces into wars in Korea and Vietnam, with casualties far exceeding those of later conflicts in the Middle East.

Yet for all the American blood shed in the region, Washington’s policy goals in Asia never faced a serious threat during the Cold War. In the U.S.–Soviet rivalry, East Asia played a peripheral role to the competition for Europe. Meanwhile, for Mao’s China, international relations took a back-seat to the development of Communism domestically. Land wars notwithstanding, the U.S. comfortably maintained control of Asia’s seas and skies throughout the period; the “hot” conflicts were ancillary to the “cold” competition. “It is not misleading to conclude that for half a century after World War II, strategy in Asia was relatively easy for Washington,” writes Michael Auslin in his new book, Asia’s New Geopolitics.

Chinese Diplomats Behaving Badly

MINXIN PEI

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CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – Chinese diplomats have long had a reputation as well-trained, colorless, and cautious professionals who pursue their missions doggedly without attracting much unfavorable attention. But a new crop of younger diplomats are ditching established diplomatic norms in favor of aggressively promoting China’s self-serving COVID-19 narrative. It is called “wolf warrior” diplomacy – and it is backfiring.

America finds itself in the grips of two epidemics, each of which has exposed deep inequalities across races and levels of educational attainment. Between rising "deaths of despair" among working-class whites and higher COVID-19 mortality rates among African-Americans, the stunning secular decline in US life expectancy will continue.

Shortly before the COVID-19 crisis erupted, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi instructed the country’s diplomatic corps to adopt a more assertive approach to defending China’s interests and reputation abroad. The pandemic – the scale of which may have been far smaller were it not for local Wuhan authorities’ early mistakes – presented a perfect opportunity to translate this directive into action.

The U.S. needs multilateral initiatives to counter Chinese tech transfer

Remco Zwetsloot
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China’s efforts to acquire dual-use technology through overseas talent have sparked intense debates in the United States. Just like exports and foreign investments, the flow of students and researchers across borders can be an important avenue for technology transfer. And many in Washington are therefore concerned that the U.S. government isn’t doing enough to control the flow of Chinese talent between the two countries.

In response to these concerns, the White House announced on May 29 that it would bar visas for Chinese students and researchers deemed to have ties to the country’s military. Recognizing the need to strike the right balance between openness and protection, State Department officials stressed the policy is meant to be “very, very narrowly targeted.” Meanwhile on Capitol Hill, far more expansive restrictions on Chinese researchers are being considered.

But unilateral U.S. actions are unlikely to thwart China’s ability to acquire technology from abroad. For the same reason that a go-it-alone approach to export controls and investment screening is widely considered ineffective, a purely domestic focus when it comes to Chinese talent is liable to fail. Unilateral measures to protect widely available technologies will simply lead Beijing to target other countries, moving the problem elsewhere instead of solving it. Without multilateral initiatives, even well-targeted U.S. countermeasures are unlikely to reduce China’s ability to acquire sensitive dual-use technology and know-how from overseas.

Chinese talent and technology transfer

China’s producer prices fell in May as the coronavirus ravaged global demand

Huileng Tan

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Producer prices in China have been hit by weak global demand due to the coronavirus pandemic, data showed on Wednesday.

The producer price index (PPI) fell 3.7% from a year earlier in May, according to data from the country’s National Bureau of Statistics. That was sharper than the 3.3% decline expected by economists polled by Reuters.

Negative PPI is expected to persist for some time to due weak demand, said Teck Kin Suan, United Overseas Bank’s head of research. On Sunday, customs data showed exports fell 3.3% in May from a year earlier.

In May, China’s consumer price index rose 2.4% from a year earlier, that’s less than the 2.7% rise economists polled by Reuters had expected.

Economists at Capital Economics said in note after the data release that a ramp-up in policy stimulus to support the economy will likely help ease price pressures in the months ahead.

“A pick-up in infrastructure construction looks set to drive a rebound in producer prices, which are highly correlated with commodity prices,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard and Martin Rasmussen.

However, they also said food price inflation will decline further as pork supply increases.

China’s Street Vendor Push Ignites a Debate: How Rich Is It?

By Li Yuan
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Xie Yiyi lost her job last Friday, making the 22-year-old Beijing resident one of millions of young people in China left unmoored and shaken by the coronavirus.

So that same day, heeding the advice of one of China’s top leaders, she decided to open a barbecue stall.

Many people in China would say selling spicy mutton skewers was a step down for an American-educated young person like Ms. Xie — or, really, for anybody in the world’s second-largest economy. Street vendors are seen by many Chinese people as embarrassing eyesores from the country’s past, when it was still emerging from extreme poverty. In many Chinese cities, uniformed neighborhood rules enforcers called chengguan regularly evict and assault sidewalk sellers of fake jewelry, cheap clothes and spicy snacks.

But Li Keqiang, China’s premier, had publicly called for the country’s jobless to ignite a “stall economy” to get the country’s derailed economy back on track. In the process, he laid bare China’s diverging narratives after the coronavirus epidemic. Is China an increasingly middle-class country, represented by the skyscrapers and tech campuses in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen? Or is much of it still poor and backward, a country of roadside stalls in back alleys?

Biden Camp Tries to Walk Fine Line on China

BY COLUM LYNCH
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In May, representatives of progressive Asian American organizations held a virtual meeting with Joe Biden’s camp to raise concern about the Democratic candidate’s China policy, in particular his efforts to demonstrate he was tougher on Beijing than President Donald Trump, which risked exposing Chinese Americans to backlash.

The meeting, which was described by three people familiar with it, followed the airing in April of a political ad by the Biden campaign titled “Unprepared,” denouncing Trump as weak on China. The ad—which faulted Trump for having “rolled over for the Chinese” and letting 40,000 travelers from China into the country after he imposed a flight ban in response to the coronavirus—provoked anger and dismay among progressive Democrats and Asian American advocates, who felt it risked fomenting anti-Chinese sentiment.

“We made our concerns clear and communicated very strongly that we wanted to see the campaign stop using this xenophobic and anti-China rhetoric,” said one person present at the meeting with Amit Jani, who serves as the Asian American Pacific Islander outreach director on Biden’s campaign. “It was clear we were not the first group to raise this concern.”

China-US Military Confrontation in the South China Sea: Fact and Fiction

By Hu Bo

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No one doubts that the military competition and frictions are real and serious between China and the United States in the South China Sea, when they have rivalrous intentions, tit-for-tat strategies, and daily operational confrontations. China is accused of coercing U.S. allies and partners, militarizing disputed features, and seeking regional hegemony, and the United States is considered to be playing the South China Sea card and containing China’s rise as a maritime power. In the context of overall intensified strategic competition between the two countries, the South China Sea is even less likely to be an exception.

But the question remains: how fierce will the competition be? When every day is filled with news of maritime standoffs between China and the United States, many may wonder, will China and the U.S. slip into military conflict?

Both sides have reasons to maintain and expand their military presence in the South China Sea. China is the largest littoral state of the South China Sea, and has important interests at stake: territorial sovereignty, jurisdictional waters, and sea lanes of communication. With China’s military modernization, it is natural that more and more military platforms are active in the area. Meanwhile the United States thinks highly of maritime predominance, freedom of navigation, and security commitments to regional states. Thus, since the end of World War II, the United States has maintained the most powerful military presence and executed a variety of complex military operations in the South China Sea.

China’s high-tech dream could come at a price

By GORDON WATTS

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There was a time in 2017 when news of President Xi Jinping’s high-tech policy used to be just a smartphone alert away.

Nearly three years later, Made in China 2025 has become the program “that must not be named.”

In 2019, it barely received a mention in Premier Li Keqiang’s state-of-the-union style address to the National People’s Congress apart from a throwaway line about “smart plus” technology.

Last month, “new infrastructure” was the buzz phrase at the annual NPC gathering of China’s rubber-stamp parliament.

“Chinese officials, wary of international blowback, have increasingly framed the plan as aspirational and unofficial. They have begun to reduce their allusions to it as Western leaders have voiced concerns,” James McBride and Andrew Chatzky, of the Council on Foreign Relations, said.

China in brace position as Five Eyes form united front

Su-Lin Tan

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Analysts said that with China and the alliance’s members clashing on a range of fronts – from the handling of the coronavirus pandemic to Hong Kong and 5G technology – there was a growing understanding within the Five Eyes that taking on China alone or one at a time would not work.

But the concerted efforts of Australia, Britain, Canada, New Zealand, and the United States has not gone unnoticed, with state media highlighting action taken by the group.

Signs of joint action emerged two years ago when Canada arrested Meng Wanzhou, chief financial officer of Chinese telecom giant Huawei Technologies, at the request of the US.

The detention triggered a furious response from Beijing, which saw the move as an attempt by the neighbours to contain China’s technological rise. Within weeks, Beijing had arrested two Canadians on state security charges.

Welcome Back to Kissinger’s World

BY MICHAEL HIRSH
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You can hate Henry Kissinger and think him evil. What you can’t do is ignore him—especially now. So argues Barry Gewen in his incisive new intellectual history of Kissinger and his times, The Inevitability of Tragedy. Indeed, not only can we not ignore the old statesman, who turned 97 in May, but we need him more than ever. To be precise, we desperately need Kissinger’s ideas and instincts about how to muddle our way through a world that, we now realize, isn’t working very well—and probably never will.

The world, from Washington’s perspective especially, has gotten Kissingerian again. America’s crusades are over or at best are corroded and crumbling at their derelict foundations. The Wilsonian crusaderism that transformed sensible Cold War containment into a futile and delusional battle against the myth of monolithic communism, ending horribly in Vietnam; and then reawakened in the post-Cold War era as a neo-Reaganite call to end “evil” regimes, finishing tragically in Iraq, has all but exhausted itself. No one wants anything to do with transforming the world anymore—so much so that Americans put a frank neo-isolationist, Donald Trump, in the White House so that he could shut the country off from the world.

The World Waits for No Country

RICHARD N. HAASS

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NEW YORK – The United States finds itself confronting several daunting challenges simultaneously. There is the COVID-19 pandemic, which has already claimed nearly 120,000 lives and shows little sign of abating in large swaths of the country. The economic impact has been devastating, with some 40 million currently out of work and the Federal Reserve projecting that many of them will remain unemployed for a prolonged period.

America finds itself in the grips of two epidemics, each of which has exposed deep inequalities across races and levels of educational attainment. Between rising "deaths of despair" among working-class whites and higher COVID-19 mortality rates among African-Americans, the stunning secular decline in US life expectancy will continue.

On top of all this is the explosion of protests in the wake of the killing of George Floyd, a 46-year old African-American man, at the hands – more precisely, the knee – of a policeman in Minneapolis. The protests, which have spanned the country, highlighted not just the enduring problem of deep-seated racism in the US, but also of police behavior, which all too often is violent and outside the law that those wearing uniforms have sworn to uphold.

It comes as no surprise that the American public and their elected officials have focused their energies on these domestic challenges. The problem is that much is happening in the world that calls out for American attention and is not getting it.

Why Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Moves Are Completely Confusing

by Paul R. Pillar

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What do human rights in Hong Kong and nuclear reactors in Iran have in common? Answer: both have been the subject of recent announcements by the Trump administration that run directly and obviously counter to the very objectives that ostensibly were the purpose of the moves. 

President Donald Trump’s statement following Beijing’s imposition on Hong Kong of mainland security strictures correctly described China’s action as a “tragedy for the people of Hong Kong” and a blow against Hong Kong’s status as a prosperous and free society. But the response that Trump announced in the same statement was to begin eliminating the U.S. policy exemptions that have given Hong Kong preferred treatment different from the way the United States treats mainland China.

The details of what will be eliminated are still uncertain, and investors in Hong Kong’s stock market were encouraged by how Trump’s latest move has so far been more talk than action. But to the extent that action will eventually come, the subjects that potentially will be affected include extradition, visas, intellectual property, and tariffs. 

How to Make Sure Peace Endures Once the Fighting Ends

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The need for peacebuilding in post-conflict societies grew out of the realization that signing agreements to bring fighting to an end is a necessary but insufficient step toward true and enduring peace. Peacebuilding is now conceived of as a multistage process that includes approaches ranging from governmental capacity-building and economic development to reforms of the legal and security sectors, with each initiative intended to be a step toward improving human security and fostering societal healing and reconciliation.

It is often a laborious and expensive process—and one that can easily be undone. Witness Brexit’s triggering of the long-dormant fault lines between unionists and nationalists in Northern Ireland. Moreover, as peacebuilding has evolved, there is still no consensus on who should lead these efforts. In the wake of Sept. 11, the United Nations introduced a Peacebuilding Commission, intended to push for the adoption of post-conflict interventions and then aid and track their implementation. The PBC lacks any actual enforcement capacity, though, and has struggled to establish itself. It also suffers from the same problem as the broader U.N. system: Key member states can block U.N. involvement, which may explain why Syria is still not on the PBC’s agenda despite the denouement of that nation’s conflict.

Europe Needs to Talk About Race Too

BY REMI ADEKOYA
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Widespread protests in Europe in response to the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis have trained an unprecedented spotlight on the relationship between European states and their black populations. Crowds in countries as varied as Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Hungary, and the Czech Republic have turned out to condemn racism not only in the United States, but also at home. But while the European protesters feel solidarity with their counterparts across the Atlantic, they will have to develop their own solutions, because the problems they face are distinct.

Every country in Europe has a much smaller black citizenry than the United States, ranging from 3.3 percent of the population in more diverse places such as England and Wales to less than 0.1 percent in virtually homogenous Poland. The racial power dynamics are thus unambiguous: While European countries all have differing histories and demographics, their minority black populations are all heavily reliant on white majorities for fair treatment in their everyday lives, with often limited avenues for recourse if that power is abused. The unfortunate result is that when black people in Europe suffer injustices committed by law enforcement, that suffering often occurs in silence with respect to public discourse. It is no accident that the world is honoring the memory of George Floyd and not Adama Traoré, a black man who died in circumstances similar to George Floyd’s while in French police custody in 2016.

Israel’s annexation puzzle in the age of great power competition

Eyal Tsir Cohen

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For years, the U.S. government has been advising Israel, and other allies, to take a tougher stance on Chinese investments. This was a key issue raised during Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to Jerusalem at the height of the COVID-19 crisis in May.

Pompeo warned about furthering economic ties with China, particularly regarding a competitive Chinese bid to build the world’s largest desalination plant near an Israeli military base. While the Ministry of Defense has been very cautious when dealing with China, other Israeli government agencies including the ministries of economy, agriculture, transportation, and energy — which oversee projects like desalination — have been less sensitive to the possible threats that come with Chinese business.

Israel ultimately rejected the offer, yet the necessity to nationally distance from Beijing remains, notwithstanding that bilateral ties with China were made precisely to weather a challenge like annexation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu worked hard to build diplomatic and economic ties with other major global players so that Israel would have leverage to mitigate or overcome unwelcome policy pressures from the United States and/or Europe. But now that President Trump has made China a major issue in U.S. bilateral relations, the leverage is weakened.

WHY ARE FOSSIL FUELS SO HARD TO QUIT?

Samantha Gross

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But suddenly, the COVID-19 pandemic brought trade, travel, and consumer spending to a near-standstill. With billions of people recently under stay-at-home orders and economic activity plunging worldwide, the demand for and price of oil have fallen further and faster than ever before. Needless to say, oil markets have been in turmoil and producers around the world are suffering.

A combo shows the India Gate war memorial on October 17, 2019 and after air pollution level started to drop during a 21-day nationwide lockdown to slow the spreading of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in New Delhi, India, April 8, 2020. REUTERS/Anushree Fadnavis/Adnan Abidi

Some pundits are now asking if this crisis could be the push the world needs to move away from oil. One asked: “Could the coronavirus crisis be the beginning of the end for the oil industry?” Another: “Will the coronavirus kill the oil industry and help save the climate?” Meanwhile, 2020 annual greenhouse gas emissions are forecast to decline between 4 – 7% as a result of the virus’ effects, and some of the world’s smoggiest cities are currently enjoying clear skies.

Europe Needs to Talk About Race Too

BY REMI ADEKOYA

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Widespread protests in Europe in response to the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis have trained an unprecedented spotlight on the relationship between European states and their black populations. Crowds in countries as varied as Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Hungary, and the Czech Republic have turned out to condemn racism not only in the United States, but also at home. But while the European protesters feel solidarity with their counterparts across the Atlantic, they will have to develop their own solutions, because the problems they face are distinct.

Every country in Europe has a much smaller black citizenry than the United States, ranging from 3.3 percent of the population in more diverse places such as England and Wales to less than 0.1 percent in virtually homogenous Poland. The racial power dynamics are thus unambiguous: While European countries all have differing histories and demographics, their minority black populations are all heavily reliant on white majorities for fair treatment in their everyday lives, with often limited avenues for recourse if that power is abused. The unfortunate result is that when black people in Europe suffer injustices committed by law enforcement, that suffering often occurs in silence with respect to public discourse. It is no accident that the world is honoring the memory of George Floyd and not Adama Traoré, a black man who died in circumstances similar to George Floyd’s while in French police custody in 2016.

A Solution to the Social Media Mayhem

by Amitai Etzioni

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Much attention has been focused recently, quite properly, on incidences of police brutality and on racism. However, one should not overlook cases of police bearing false witness or, in other words, lying. False statements do more harm than just making it impossible that offenders will be fairly treated; they also undermine public trust in the police, a trust which experts agree is essential for law and order to prevail without excessive use of force. 

Here are some illustrative cases of police statements that clearly conflicted with the facts of the case. 

- Martin Gugino, a seventy-five-year-old man, participated in a demonstration protesting the killing of George Floyd. Video footage shows Gugino, among other protestors, approaching two officers who were there to enforce the city’s 8 p.m. curfew. After a brief interaction, one officer can be seen pushing Gugino. Gugino falls backward onto the pavement and starts bleeding from his head. The officers walked by. Initially, Buffalo police stated that he “was injured when he tripped and fell.” (This statement was backtracked after the footage went viral). 

AI will permeate the Pentagon ‘from cyberspace to outer space, everywhere between’: JAIC director

Tim Hinchliffe
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The director of the Pentagon’s Joint Artificial Intelligence Center (JAIC) says that the foundations are being laid to have AI and machine learning systems permeating every area of the Department of Defense (DoD), but there are many challenges.

JAIC Director Lieutenant General Jack Shanahan told the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies on June 4 that the Pentagon is looking to completely transform itself through AI, both internally and externally in its operations.

“From the back office to the battlefield, from under sea to cyberspace and outer space, and all points in between — everything could be made better through through the application of AI,” — Lt. Gen. Shanahan

Special Ops: ‘Further Behind Than We Know’ On New Tech

By PAUL MCLEARY

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Capt. Daniel Strom communicates with the pilot of an A-10.

WASHINGTON: As commercial communications technologies spin up development of new technologies at a faster clip than government-furnished systems can match, US special operations forces are feeling the coming parity acutely. 

“The competitive space is expanding, but we aren’t the only ones expanding it,” Col. Michael McGuire, Special Operations Command’s director of combat development, told a recent special operations conference. In future fights, “we will all have the same tools,” he added. “We need to accept that and leverage the tools we have available…maybe we are further behind than we know.”

The annual SOFIC conference, held every May in Tampa for the defense industry and Special Operations Command to rub shoulders and talk bluntly about modernization priorities, is always a conversation about threats and the art of the possible. This year however, it was notable that comments like McGuire’s carried the day. While the event was held virtually this year due to COVID-19 concerns, a palpable sense of wariness hung over the talks, as the Pentagon grapples with the assessment that America’s adversaries are catching up.

SOCOM Looking To Bake In AI Requirements On Every New Program

By PAUL MCLEARY

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WASHINGTON: Special Operations Command is in a “war for influence” with adversaires from non-state groups to state-funded information operations, the command’s top general said recently, and is rushing to fund artificial intelligence and machine learning programs to find an edge. 

“We’re going to have to have artificial intelligence and machine learning tools, specifically for information ops that hit a very broad portfolio,” SOCOM commander Gen. Richard Clarke said recently, “because we’re going to have to understand how the adversary is thinking, how the population is thinking, and work in these spaces.”

Special Operations have cultivated an image in popular culture over two decades of constant war in the Middle East as almost superhuman door kickers dropping from the sky to blast their way quickly through an objective, disappearing as quickly as they had arrived. That view has in part led policymakers and the public to look to these troops as a solution to almost any problem, placing an enormous burden on a force of about 70,000 troops. 

Clarke said that kinetic mission won’t change any time soon, but other missions the various tribes of SOCOM and SOF have always performed — intelligence gathering, training and advising, and influence operations — need to be reprioritized.

Trust in Interstate Intelligence Sharing

Robert Dover

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Trust is at the heart of all intelligence work. That is trust and distrust, loyalty and betrayal, protection and intrusion. Trust is a coin with two distinct sides, and this coin is as valid in interstate intelligence relations, as it is between intelligence officers, as it is between a communications intelligence analyst listening to an audio feed and their certainty in the feed, as it is between an intelligence officer and her human source. The many attempts of western intelligence agencies to systematise source verification, to structure intelligence analysis, and to lean ever more heavily on computer aids has not removed the essential need for human judgement in the business of government intelligence. A system that relies upon human behaviour and the judgments of humans will always be fallible. It will also always pivot around the notion of trust.

The positives of sharing intelligence are often highlighted during the inquiries that follow intelligence failures. The 9/11 inquiry famously concluded that it was the stovepiping of intelligence about the eventual attackers that allowed the US system to collectively possess sufficient intelligence to disrupt the plot against the World Trade Center and other sites, but to not share that intelligence amongst agencies to deploy assets against the threat (9-11 Commission 2004). We should note that novel threats – those whose premise falls outside of our established thinking – have often resulted in strategic shocks (think Barbarossa in 1941, think Pearl Harbor, think AQ Khan and so on, and so forth). These failures have increasingly been attributed to a failure of imagination and a failure of cultural reflexivity: something noted by Matthew Syed in his most recent book, and by me in my response to it (Syed 2019; Dover, 2019).

Why cutting American forces in Germany will harm this alliance

BY MICHAEL O'HANLON

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President Trump has approved a plan, hatched more by his ambassador in Berlin than by the Pentagon, to further downsize the United States military presence in Germany, according to some recent reports. The change was disturbingly motivated out of his spite at Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The 35,000 American troops in Germany would be reduced by 10,000, as some would come home and some would possibly head to Poland. While there is nothing wrong with increasing the modest United States military presence in Poland, this must not be at the expense of a strong foothold in Germany, where American forces stood in the hundreds of thousands amid the Cold War and have been reduced in the last few decades.

American forces in Germany are mostly Army and Air Force units. They include an armored brigade and a fighter wing, then logistics, supports, and headquarters capabilities that facilitate any massive reinforcements that could be needed to defend the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in war. If there were a crisis in the Baltic region, the United States would be unlikely to send most of its forces directly to Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania. These small exposed countries have only a few major ports and airfields between them, and are all dangerously close to Russian firepower.