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21 September 2021

Deterrence Theory– Is it Applicable in Cyber Domain?

Maj Gen PK Mallick, VSM (Retd)

Introduction 

The Deterrence Theory was developed in the 1950s, mainly to address new strategic challenges posed by nuclear weapons from the Cold War nuclear scenario. During the Cold War, the U.S. and the Soviet Union adopted a survivable nuclear force to present a ‘credible’ deterrent that maintained the ‘uncertainty’ inherent in a strategic balance as understood through the accepted theories of major theorists like Bernard Brodie, Herman Kahn, and Thomas Schelling.1 Nuclear deterrence was the art of convincing the enemy not to take a specific action by threatening it with an extreme punishment or an unacceptable failure.

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Posted by Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:45 No comments:

Social Media in Violent Conflicts – Recent Examples

 Maj Gen PK Mallick, VSM (Retd)


Introduction
Alan Rusbridger, the then editor-in-chief of the Guardian in his 2010 Andrew Olle Media Lecture, stated, “News organisations still break lots of news. But, increasingly, news happens first on Twitter. If you’re a regular Twitter user, even if you’re in the news business and have access to wires, the chances are that you’ll check out many rumours of breaking news on Twitter first. There are millions of human monitors out there who will pick up on the smallest things and who have the same instincts as the agencies—to be the first with the news. As more people join, the better it will get. ”

The most important and unique feature of social media and its role in future conflicts is the speed at which it can disseminate information to audiences and the audiences to provide feedback.

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Posted by Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:44 No comments:

America Needs Accountability on Afghanistan


LAURA THOMAS
Source Link

OPINION — Last week, I lost my composure as I entered the Dulles airport international arrivals area after a transatlantic flight. Scores of Afghan refugees stood between me and the process I had done countless of times – enter the United States after stints abroad, often on CIA assignments. These Afghans were certainly tired, most likely poor, and a huddled mass. Despite the immense challenges many will face integrating into a new society, they represent the fortunate few. Many Afghan allies, including U.S. citizens and U.S. Green Card holders, remain in Afghanistan, along with U.S. Government credibility, if we do not keep pressure on the Taliban to allow them to depart.

Americans should know the truth about what happened in Afghanistan in the last days of the official U.S. presence there. While we cannot treat talking about the problem the same as solving it, this truth-telling is the first step to holding U.S. leadership and the Taliban accountable. Acknowledging what we did wrong does not mean succumbing to it. Accountability matters. Without it, we repeat the same old thinking and actions. With it, we can take the difficult and complex steps forward to address our policy and planning shortcomings, as well as devise short, mid, and long-term strategies to relocate those Afghans who risk being hunted down and executed by the Taliban as a result of their work for the United States.
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Posted by Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:35 No comments:

Refugee Resettlement Woes: Why America Should Steer Afghans Toward Foreign Soil

Steven Camarota
Source Link

The crisis in Afghanistan and the decision to admit tens of thousands of that country’s citizens, with plans to admit more, has raised interest in how the huge influx of immigrants will adapt to life in the United States. Unfortunately, we do not have an entirely clear picture of the Afghans evacuated in recent weeks. Some have worked for the U.S. government, others have a more tenuous connection, while still others seem to have simply pushed their way to the front of the line at the Kabul airport.

By contrast, Census Bureau data does provide a clear picture of Afghans already in the United States. It shows that many people struggle with low incomes and high rates of welfare use. Moving forward, policymakers have to think about they we might better help future Afghan immigrants adapt to life in the United States or, alternatively, help those who want out of Afghanistan to resettle in neighboring countries.

According to the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS), the number of Afghan immigrants in the United States has grown from 55,000 in 2010 to 133,000 in 2019. That’s a 2.5-fold increase in less than ten years. The same data also shows that a large share of Afghans have modest levels of education and are poor. Of persons in households headed by an Afghan immigrant, 51 percent live in or near poverty, which is roughly twice the rate among the native-born. (Near poverty is defined as less than 200 percent of the poverty line.)
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Posted by Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:35 No comments:

Taliban lionizes Haqqani commander who celebrated ties to Al Qaeda, held American hostage

BILL ROGGIO
Source Link

The Taliban feted one of its famed commanders, Mullah Sangeen Zadran, on a new billboard that also showed Bowe Bergdahl, an American soldier who was held hostage by Sangeen and the Taliban for nearly five years. Sangeen, who was killed in a drone strike in 2013, admitted the ties between the Taliban and Al Qaeda were unbreakable.

The billboard of Sangeen and Bergdahl was raised in Khost province, a stronghold of the Haqqani Network, a powerful Taliban subgroup. Sirajuddin Haqqani, one of the Taliban’s two deputy emirs, is the group’s interim Minister of Interior, arguably one of the most influential postings as he controls the group’s internal security forces. Several other Haqqani leaders hold high-profile posts in the new Taliban government.

Sangeen served as the Taliban’s military commander and then shadow governor of Paktika province in eastern Afghanistan, as well as a senior aid to Sirajuddin before he was killed in a U.S. drone strike in the Ghulam Khan area of Pakistan’s Taliban-controlled tribal agency of North Waziristan on Sept. 5, 2013.
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Posted by Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:35 No comments:

After the End of the ‘Pink Tide,’ What’s Next for South America?

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It may not be a return of the “Pink Tide” of leftist governments that swept into power across South America in the early 2000s—and were largely swept out again amid a conservative backlash in the mid-2010s. But the region’s left has been showing signs of revival.

In Argentina’s October 2019 presidential election, the moderate-left Peronist candidate, Alberto Fernandez, ousted the market-friendly incumbent, Mauricio Macri, whose austerity measures and heavy borrowing triggered an economic crisis that cost him the presidency. Also in 2019, violent protests erupted in Colombia in September against mounting police brutality under law-and-order President Ivan Duque. And both Ecuador and Chile saw massive demonstrations that forced Ecuador’s government to backtrack on austerity measures and challenged Chile’s longstanding neoliberal economic model. More recently, in October 2020, Bolivia returned the Movement Toward Socialism to power in the first presidential election since Evo Morales was ousted.

The conservative wave that followed the Pink Tide is far from ebbing, though. The 2018 election of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil was a particular blow to the region’s progressives, and he has justified their fears. His administration has curbed the fight against corruption and downplayed the severity of the coronavirus pandemic, even as he has continued to denigrate the country’s Indigenous communities and undermined the country’s democratic norms. And in Uruguay, conservatives took control of the government last December from the leftist Broad Front coalition that had been in power for a decade and a half.
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Posted by Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:30 No comments:

Has the ‘China Initiative’ Run Its Course?

Shannon Tiezzi
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In 2018 the Trump administration announced a new program at the Department of Justice. Dubbed the China Initiative, the program was meant to crack down on economic espionage and covert influence operations. From the outset, however, the initiative has faced accusation of embedded prejudice against Chinese Americans, as well as more basic concerns about sloppy legal work.

Despite the rising criticism, the China Initiative continued into the Biden administration.

“The more we learn about the China Initiative, the more problematic it looks,” Margaret Lewis, a professor of law at Seton Hall University, told The Diplomat in a phone interview.

“I’m not feeling better about this now, three years in.”
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Posted by Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:25 No comments:

Aircraft carrier evolutions: platforms for the future?

Nick Childs
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In early August 2021, India began sea trials of its latest aircraft carrier, while China’s next carrier looks to be almost ready to launch. Italy’s new large aviation-capable amphibious ship (LHD) also started trials in August. In addition, the United Kingdom and the United States are already looking at the next steps in the development of their carrier capabilities, not least the incorporation of uninhabited aerial vehicles (UAVs). These and other developments offer pointers about the evolution of future carrier capabilities globally, while also raising questions about directions in development.

Indo-Pacific maritime air power

After years of delay, the start of sea trials of India’s first indigenous aircraft carrier, the 40,000-tonne INS Vikrant, is an important step in the Indian Navy’s power-projection ambitions. The Vikrant is relatively small by modern carrier standards and utilises a ski-jump ramp rather than catapults for aircraft launch, limiting the types of aircraft that the ship can carry and their performance. The vessel will ultimately join India’s heavily modified ex-Russian carrier, INS Vikramaditya, which also uses a ski-jump ramp. Nevertheless, whether and when the navy will be able to fulfil its plan for a three-carrier force, including a larger and more capable follow-on vessel equipped with catapults, remain open questions.
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Posted by Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:25 No comments:

China – a lonely superpower

HENRY STOREY
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As the United States, United Kingdom and Australia move to form a new AUKUS grouping, various reports have emerged of a “new Quad” led by China and featuring Iran, Pakistan and Russia. Iran’s imminent admission to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), and plans for the four countries to cooperate on Afghanistan and Russia-China-Iran naval drills, are examples of some of the geopolitical developments fuelling such speculation.

Beijing already has an enduring and strong relationship with Islamabad, while ties with Moscow and Tehran have become much closer after both countries were subject to US-led sanctions campaigns. All four capitals have various grievances – some stronger than others – with what might loosely be called the “West”.

However, frustration with the West does not in and of itself amount to strategic convergence. Take Russia and China. Despite the high level Xi-Putin relationship, trust is a definite issue. Russia has lingering anxieties as to China’s ultimate objectives in the Russian Far East, the Arctic and Central Asia. Nor has either side explicitly backed each other on the thorny issues of Crimea/Eastern Ukraine and the South China Sea.
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Posted by Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:25 No comments:

How China Exports Authoritarianism

Charles Edel and David O. Shullman
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In a speech to senior Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials in July, Chinese leader Xi Jinping declared that China must do more to share the “story” of the party’s success with the rest of the world. In order to enhance the international influence of both the country and the party, Xi effectively asserted, Chinese officials should extol the virtues of China’s model of authoritarian governance abroad.

Although some analysts continue to argue that China does not pose an ideological threat to prevailing democratic norms and that the CCP does not export its ideology, it is clear that the CCP has embarked on a drive to promote its style of authoritarianism to illiberal actors around the world. Its goal is not to spread Marxism or to undermine individual democracies but rather to achieve political and economic preeminence, and its efforts to that effect—spreading propaganda, expanding information operations, consolidating economic influence, and meddling in foreign political systems—are hollowing out democratic institutions and norms within and between countries.

To respond to Beijing’s ideological challenge, advocates of democracy must have a better understanding of what China aims to achieve by exporting its political model and how its actions are weakening democracy globally. Only then can they effectively design policies that will reinvigorate democracy at home and abroad while selectively seeking to counter Beijing’s promotion of authoritarian governance.
Posted by Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:25 No comments:

Party Capital: A Blueprint for National Security Due Diligence on China — C4ADS

Jason arterburn
Source Link

Executive Summary
China’s commercial system exposes the United States to systemic national security risks that require new approaches for threat identification and response. In the absence of formal market protections, Chinese commercial actors operate with the threat of “exposure, incrimination[,] and, by extension, the coercive power of the party-state.” When Chinese companies pursue globalization, they expose the international community to “national security externalities” of the party-state’s involvement in China’s domestic economy, which lacks the neutrality, due process, and clear legal delineation of state-business relations in market-oriented liberal democracies.

Policymakers internationally have achieved broad consensus about the urgency of mitigating the national security risks of exposure to China’s commercial system, and observers have paid significant attention to changes in China’s political economy under General Secretary Xi Jinping. However, comparatively less work has connected the most recent scholarship on Chinese state-business relations to those national security policy concerns. Additionally, while groups like the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence have highlighted the need for nontraditional intelligence consumers like state governments and university administrators to gain access to information about threats from China, there remains relatively limited discussion about how to achieve broader stakeholder engagement.
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Posted by Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:25 No comments:

Jamestown Foundation

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China Brief

Challenges and Progress in China’s Development of 5G and 6G

Implications of Xi’s Revival of the Maoist Slogan “Common Prosperity”

How U.S. Banks Push the Caribbean Toward China

The PLA Air Force’s Efforts Toward Agile Combat Employment

Education Reforms Aim to Mold Model Citizens from Preschool in the PRC

Terrorism Monitor

Islamic State in Khorasan Province’s Campaign against Afghan Women

China and Pakistan to Increase Counter-Terrorism Coordination with the Afghan Taliban

Terrorism Monitor Interview With Dr. Antonio Giustozzi
Posted by Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:25 No comments:

The Biden Doctrine has yet to emerge. Beware those who claim otherwise

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Andrei gromyko, the Soviet Union’s pre-eminent America-watcher, remarked that the object of his study had so “many doctrines and concepts proclaimed at different times” that it was unable to pursue “a solid, coherent and consistent policy”. And that was during the cold war, a period of relatively cool-headed American policy analysis. How much more applicable does Gromyko’s observation seem to the first eight months of Joe Biden’s presidency. Half a dozen different versions of the Biden Doctrine had been outlined by foreign-policy commentators before the president had even given a major foreign-policy speech.

Parsing the president’s campaign statements, some suggested the alleged doctrine was a return to the pre-Trump status quo, with a warm embrace of allies and the international order. Other prognosticators, focusing on Mr Biden’s scepticism of military intervention and his party’s protectionism, foresaw a more diplomatic version of Donald Trump’s scattergun nativism. Some pinpointed the president’s interest in shoring up democracy; or his rhetoric about prioritising policies beneficial to American workers. How to make sense of all this? “Biden’s everything doctrine” was the verdict of an essay in Foreign Affairs.
Posted by Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:15 No comments:

How the U.S. Military Is Preparing for Unmanned Warfare

Michael Peck
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Here's What You Need to Remember: For U.S. forces spoiled by 70 years of unchallenged superiority, it will come as a rude shock that the skies are not friendly. Hence the U.S. Army is asking for ways to detect and destroy drones.

Drones were great for a while, as long as it was only the U.S. military that used them. Now the Pentagon is waking up to the possibility that potential enemies like China, Iran and North Korea might use them against America.

But it's not just drones that are the threat. It's swarms of drones, perhaps tens or dozens or hundreds, spying or striking at U.S. troops. A poor man's form of asymmetric warfare capitalizing on the simple fact that you can strap a camera or a bomb to a $300 flying robot that a 10-year-old can operate.
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Posted by Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:15 No comments:

Can The US Army Transform Without A New Approach to Warfare?

DANIEL GOURE
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When the US Army talks about transforming itself, it focuses primarily on new, advanced capabilities, and on streamlining the acquisition system. And there is a lot to be positive about in Army’s success in accelerating development of an array of new and hopefully significantly more capable weapons systems, platforms, and enablers.

But the Army’s effort to transform itself is, at best, an uneven success. While it may soon have a lot of new capabilities to deploy, and despite the optimism surrounding its Multi-Domain Operations (MDO) concept, it is still unclear how it intends to exploit this advantage to defeat adversaries who are technologically its equals and have the advantage of being close to where the conflicts will occur.

The Army is proceeding full speed ahead with its modernization efforts, the so-called 31+4 programs. Over the next few years, the Army claims it will achieve initial fielding of capabilities from at least 22 of the 35 programs. These include a hypersonic missile, several long-range precision strike weapons, enhanced soldier vision systems, tactical lasers, and artificial intelligence. By the end of the decade, the Army expects to begin deploying a rich array of land, air, space, and cyber capabilities from its 31+4 modernization programs.
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Posted by Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:15 No comments:

Murphy’s misfired claim that 8 out of 10 U.S. drones miss their target


Glenn Kessler
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Murphy appeared on CNN to discuss an Aug. 29 drone strike in Afghanistan in the waning days of the U.S. presence there. The U.S. military initially claimed that the drone targeted an Islamic State vehicle preparing for a car-bomb attack.

But now it appears that the vehicle was driven by an aid worker who had loaded his car with water canisters, not explosives. Investigations by The Washington Post and the New York Times raised doubts about the military’s claim that the weapon used, a Hellfire missile, triggered a “secondary explosion” indicative of a car loaded with explosives.

As many as 10 people may have been killed, including the aid worker and seven children ranging in age from 3 to 16.

As part of his appearance on “The Lead with Jake Tapper,” Murphy made a claim that jumped out at us — that studies have shown that “maybe eight out of 10 times we are hitting the wrong target.”

That would be an astonishing record of failure. Is he right?

The Facts

The short answer is no.

Peter Bergen, vice president for global studies at the New America Foundation, heads a project that has documented in great detail the drone war in Pakistan, air and ground operations in Yemen and Somalia, as well as the internationalized air war in Libya. He was puzzled by Murphy’s statement.

“Eight out of 10 is not a stat I have ever heard of,” Bergen said. “As I document in my new book, ‘The Rise and Fall of Osama bin Laden,’ based on the documents that came out bin Laden’s Abbottabad compound, he was very worried about the precision of CIA drone strikes, which were killing a large number of al-Qaeda’s leaders.”

In Pakistan, for instance, the New America data shows there have been a total of 414 strikes, resulting in 2,366 to 3,702 deaths, most of them militants (estimated at 1,910 to 3,071). The civilian death toll was calculated as between 245 and 303. In Yemen, there have been 374 strikes, resulting in 1,387 to 1,776 total deaths, including 124 to 150 civilians, New America says.

In the four countries in New America’s data set, nearly 1,500 civilians are recorded as being killed in drone strikes.

Until the Trump administration ended the practice, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released data on drone strikes in “areas of active hostilities” such as Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. Between Jan. 20, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015, the data showed 473 strikes resulted in 2,372 to 2,581 combatant deaths and 64 to 116 civilian deaths. In 2016, there were 53 strikes, resulting in 431 to 441 combatant deaths and one civilian death, the DNI said.

One can be reasonably suspicious about the civilian death toll in official government releases, given how news accounts place the numbers much higher. The human rights group Reprieve says that a 2010 drone strike killed a deputy commander of the Pakistani Taliban, but at a high cost — claiming 128 more people, 13 of them children.

Bergen noted that the civilian casualty rate from drone strikes “was high initially but became smaller and smaller over time for all sorts of reasons; longer flight times, smaller payloads, better intel, more congressional scrutiny, more media scrutiny, clearer rules of engagement.”

Indeed, when we contacted Murphy’s staff for an explanation, we were told he was referring to a statistic in a 2015 article in the Intercept about a 2012-2013 operation. The article was based on internal government documents.

“Documents detailing a special operations campaign in northeastern Afghanistan, Operation Haymaker, show that between January 2012 and February 2013, U.S. special operations airstrikes killed more than 200 people,” the article said. “Of those, only 35 were the intended targets. During one five-month period of the operation, according to the documents, nearly 90 percent of the people killed in airstrikes were not the intended targets.”

The documents obtained by the Intercept described the other people killed as EKIA — “enemy killed in action.” It’s unclear how many might actually be civilians. Some obviously might be militants. One cannot easily leap to the conclusion that everyone else killed in the drone attack did not have links to terrorism.

Murphy argues that the Intercept articles, dubbed the Drone Papers, are the only reliable glimpse of internal government records. His staff dismissed Bergen’s work as relying on news reports.

“What I said was true,” Murphy said in a statement to The Fact Checker. “The data we have does suggest over 80 percent of strikes hit the wrong target. Since the government classifies data on the efficacy of drone strikes, the only full public data set is from a leak of the Haymaker drone campaign in Afghanistan. And a study of that data by The Intercept showed that 90 percent of drones killed the wrong target. At the time of this disclosure, the military did not offer any exculpatory evidence to rebut this claim, and so without any other data and no contradictory information from the military it’s completely reasonable to infer a broader trend from the limited data available. The bottom line is that the data released by the Intercept provides ample evidence that our drone program is wildly ineffective and badly in need of reform.”

The Pinocchio Test

The recent drone attack in Afghanistan has highlighted the sometimes-terrible collateral damage in this form of aerial warfare. Increasingly it appears the drone hit an innocent target, not a terrorism suspect as the military claimed.

Numbers are hard to come by, but it’s certainly possible that “thousands” of civilians have been killed by drone strikes. There is certainly evidence that the impact of civilian deaths from drone strikes has undercut the U.S. image in the region.

But we deal in reliable statistics. Murphy is wrong to claim that “studies” show that 8 out of 10 times U.S. drones have hit the wrong target. He’s talking only about the supposed track record during a five-month period in a region of Afghanistan nearly a decade ago. Moreover, these documents do not indicate whether the other people killed were associated with the target of the attack or innocent civilians. So he cannot take this particular example and apply it to the entire drone program.

Notwithstanding the most recent example, the track record is said to have improved since 2013 — and many militants have been killed.

Posted by Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:15 No comments:

How to Deter China From Invading Taiwan

Robert C. O’Brien and Alexander B. Gray
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The fall of Afghanistan and the chaotic American withdrawal have been a propaganda windfall for autocrats across the world. Nowhere has the perception of American weakness been more trumpeted than in China, where state media outlets run predictions of American decline and warn U.S. allies and partners that they, too, will be abandoned. The Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece, Global Times, called Afghanistan an “omen” for Taiwan’s fate.

While images from Kabul have damaged U.S. global standing in the short term, Washington can still ensure that its interests are protected over the long term. China’s desire for a coerced unification with Taiwan is no secret. Beijing has increased military, economic and political pressure on Taipei over the past year and shows no sign of easing up. Post-Afghanistan, deterring China from a catastrophic invasion of Taiwan must be the Biden administration’s principal national security objective.

Washington and Taipei can take immediate steps to deter Chinese President Xi Jinping from invading the island democracy. A Taiwan that is what retired Admiral James Stavridis has labeled a “porcupine” would require China to mount a difficult amphibious landing and sustain a prolonged counterinsurgency—both of which could produce significant casualties for China.
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Posted by Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:15 No comments:

General promises US ‘surge’ against foreign cyberattacks

NOMAAN MERCHANT
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WASHINGTON (AP) — The general who leads U.S. efforts to thwart foreign-based cyberattacks, and punish those responsible, says he’s mounting a “surge” to fight incursions that have debilitated government agencies and companies responsible for critical infrastructure.

In an interview Tuesday with The Associated Press, Gen. Paul Nakasone broadly described “an intense focus” by government specialists to better find and share information about cyberattacks and “impose costs when necessary.” Those costs include publicly linking adversarial countries to high-profile attacks and exposing the means by which those attacks were carried out, he said.

“Even six months ago, we probably would have said, ‘Ransomware, that’s criminal activity,’” Nakasone said. “But if it has an impact on a nation, like we’ve seen, then it becomes a national security issue. If it’s a national security issue, then certainly we’re going to surge toward it.”
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Posted by Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:15 No comments:

Russia's biggest enemy? Its own economy

DAVID CLARK
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Like Obama before him, Biden sees Russia as a regional power hampered by internal weakness, not a threat worth spoiling relations with Germany over, especially when there is a genuine strategic challenger in the shape of China to contend with. Russia is a second order problem to be parked and managed.

There is a lot to be said for this conclusion, even by the standards Russia has set for itself.

In 2007, near the end of Putin's second presidential term, the Kremlin approved a national economic strategy that envisaged Russia becoming one of the world's top five economies by 2020. Propelled by average growth rates of six percent a year, Russia would establish itself a major international financial centre and a global leader in technological innovation.
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Posted by Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:10 No comments:

The Strategic Implications of the New U.S.-U.K.-Australia Defense Partnership

Rodger Baker
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The United States, United Kingdom and Australia on Sept. 15 announced the formation of AUKUS, bringing together three Anglo maritime democracies in a mutual multilayered defense partnership, focused primarily on the Indo-Pacific, and — though not explicitly stated — against China. As part of the arrangement, AUKUS is launching an 18-month program to accelerate Australia's acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines, undercutting a French sale of conventional submarines to Canberra and ending a decadeslong Australian struggle with submarine development and procurement. As such, the United States is now granting Australia access to technologies previously only shared with the United Kingdom.

AUKUS is designed to bring together the U.S. shift to an Indo-Pacific focus, give some clarity to the idea of Global Britain and commit Australia to a proactive security role in the Pacific. Given the initial focus on nuclear propulsion technology, AUKUS is unlikely to be the nucleus of a larger grouping. Rather, it will remain a trilateral initiative that allows greater collaboration and strategic focus without the complexities of large coalitions, which often fall victim to diverging priorities and interests.

As AUKUS takes shape, here are some of the initial questions we are exploring.
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Posted by Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:10 No comments:

When Cyber War Becomes War

Emil Sayegh
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As the spectacle of the disorderly U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan nauseates most Americans, the idea that the U.S. is involved in another potential war caught the attention of many as President Biden shared a warning about cyberattacks leading to a “real shooting war” in a recent speech at the Office for the Director of National Intelligence. The remarks illustrate the significance of the ongoing cyberattacks that have been specifically linked to sources out of China, Russia, Iran, and groups associated with ISIS. The remarks further highlight those threats against the country and infrastructure are on an exponential rise and the nation now considers a tangible military response to a cyber attack as a potential and appropriate course of action. Organizations are now thrust at the front lines of this international confrontation, and it is up to organizations themselves to prepare not only to protect themselves, but also show up with a patriotic mentality of protection for the sake of the nation.

Along the Modern Battle Trail
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Posted by Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:05 No comments:

Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition

Steve Blank
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For 25 years as the sole Superpower, the U.S. neglected strategic threats from China and a rearmed Russia. The country, our elected officials, and our military committed to a decades-long battle to ensure that terrorists like those who executed the 9/11 attacks cannot attack us on that scale again. Meanwhile, our country's legacy weapons systems have too many entrenched and interlocking interests (Congress, lobbyists, DOD/contractor revolving door, service promotion of executors versus innovators) that inhibit radical change. Our economic and foreign policy officials didn't notice the four-alarm fire as we first gutted our manufacturing infrastructure and sent it to China (profits are better when you outsource); then passively stood by as our intellectual property was being siphoned off; had no answer to China's web of trade deals (China's Belt and Road). The 2018 National Defense Strategy became a wake-up call for our nation.

National power is ephemeral. Nations decline when they lose allies, a decline in economic power (the UK in the 20th Century); they lose interest in global affairs (China in the 15th Century); internal/civil conflicts (Russia in the 20th Century); a nation's military can miss disruptive technology transitions and new operational concepts. One can make the case that all of these have/or are happening to the United States.
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Posted by Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:05 No comments:

Three Objectives For The UK Military’s Future

ANDREW WHITE
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LONDON: Gen. Sir Patrick Sanders, the head of the UK’s Strategic Command (STRATCOM), is demanding that Her Majesty’s Armed Forces become “more adept” at operating with agility throughout the gray zone of the modern battlespace.

Addressing delegates at DSEI in London on Sept. 14, Sanders warned that unlike the UK, the People’s Liberation Army and Russian Armed Forces are preparing to “win without fighting” around the world.

“Welcome to the so-called Gray Zone, where information age technology is allied to winning operational concepts,” Sanders said. “This is nothing less than a race for advantage in the defining technology of the future.”

Warning that great power conflict is not inevitable, Sanders continued: “The [UK MoD’s] Integrated Operating Concept is the source code of how to operate and fight, as [an] integrated whole across all domains.”
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Posted by Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:02 No comments:

The Military Is Trying to Track and Destroy Hypersonic Missiles

Kris Osborn
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Here's What You Need To Remember: While a lot of detail about the technological configuration and components of the emerging NGI are likely not available for security reasons, the Pentagon’s request to industry did mention the possibility of engineering a single interceptor able to carry multiple kill vehicles.

The Pentagon is massively fast-tracking its Next-Generation Interceptor program to deploy a missile defense technology capable of tracking and destroying a new sphere of enemy threats to include high-speed, precision-guided intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and hypersonic weapons potentially traveling through space.

Mobile ICBM launchers, nuclear weapons traveling at hypersonic speeds, multiple precision-guided re-entry vehicles and multiple missiles attack at once, each with several separating warheads are all very serious threats the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) and industry are working quickly to counter through a series of innovations, science and technology efforts, new weapons development such as a Next-Generation Interceptor (NGI) initiative aimed at deploying a new missile defense weapon by the end of the decade.
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Posted by Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:02 No comments:

The future of special operations may look a lot different than the GWOT aesthetic we’ve come to know

Meghann Myers
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The days of the burly, bearded dude in Oakleys as the face of special operations might be waning. Special operations forces need a different focus, the director of strategy, plans and policy for Special Operations Command Central said Monday.

That look may have helped recruit a certain type of service member, Army Lt. Col. Katie Crombe said during the New America Future Security Forum, but it’s only a piece of the puzzle.

“...I kind of went back to what we feel about the posters and the stamps, or the branding, of special operations ― you know, the night vision goggles and the operator with all of the gear going into a building,” she said. “And I thought, you know, that’s that’s not what we need to be advertising fully right now, for us.”

While there is a place for the door-kicker aesthetic, she added, “the people, and the mindset, and the creativity that we’re trying to recruit right now is much different than that.”
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Posted by Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:02 No comments:
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