6 July 2024

Cognitive Domain Operations Against Vietnam Hint at Broader Ambitions

Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Jackson Smith

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is updating and expanding its long-standing efforts to target countries with cyber-enabled influence operations (IO). It is already planning for IO against Vietnam, while similar efforts are likely underway against Burma, India, and others. Vietnam provides a useful case study as it demonstrates that Chinese efforts go beyond what is most often captured in the headlines and because the PLA rarely states so blatantly that it is employing specific operational concepts against specific adversaries.

Cognitive domain operations (CDO; 认知域作战) is the new primary operational concept for Chinese military IO. It serves as a technologically-driven update to the more widely known “Three Warfares (三战)”—psychological warfare, public opinion warfare, and legal warfare (see China Brief, September 8, 2023). [1] The US Department of Defense (DoD) defines CDO as “combin[ing] psychological warfare with cyber operations to shape adversary behavior and decision making,” with the assessed intention to “use CDO as an asymmetric capability to deter US or third-party entry into a future conflict, or as an offensive capability to shape perceptions or polarize a society” (DOD, October 19, 2023). DoD further explains that the PLA is interested in leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) and other emerging technologies such as big data and brain science for CDO, as the PLA “perceives that these technologies will lead to profound changes in the ability to subvert human cognition” (see also, RAND; June 1, 2023; September 7, 2023, February 1).

Former NSC Official Calls for ‘More Intensive Training’ with Taiwan

Unshin Lee Harpley

Amid escalating tensions in the South China Sea, a former deputy national security advisor from the Trump administration thinks the U.S. should ramp up its joint military exercises with Taiwan in order to counter growing threats from China.

“We should be doing much more serious, multilateral planning together with Taiwan, much more intensive training,” Matthew Pottinger said at a Heritage Foundation’s event July 2. “In part because of what Beijing is doing around the Second Thomas Shoal.”

China continues to ratchet up its military aggression towards the Philippines and other nations in the region. Just last month, a Filipino sailor was severely injured in what the Philippine military described as a “deliberate, high-speed ramming” by the Chinese Coast Guard during a resupply mission. Analysts have argued such moves could lead to open conflict and pose significant risks for the U.S. and its allies, and Pottinger argued this threat specifically endangers Taiwan.

“Beijing has made a mockery of international law and traditional laws of the sea,” said Pottinger. “There need to be military costs. It might mean that we are working together with the Philippines to put far more capability in the Philippines to threaten the Chinese navy in any contingency, not just against the Philippines but also against its neighbors like Taiwan.”

China leading generative AI patents race, UN report says

Emma Farge

China is far ahead of other countries in generative AI inventions like chatbots, filing six times more patents than its closest rival the United States, U.N. data showed on Wednesday.
Generative AI, which produces text, images, computer code and even music from existing information, is exploding with more than 50,000 patent applications filed in the past decade, according to the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), which oversees a system for countries to share recognition of patents.

A quarter of them were filed in 2023 alone, it said.

"This is a booming area this is an area that is growing at increasing speed. And it's somewhere that we expect to grow even more," Christopher Harrison, WIPO Patent Analytics Manager, told reporters.

More than 38,000 GenAI inventions were filed by China between 2014-2023 versus 6,276 filed by the United States over the same period, WIPO said.

Harrison said the Chinese patent applications covered a broad area of sectors from autonomous driving to publishing to document management.

South Korea, Japan and India were ranked third, fourth and fifth respectively, with India growing at the fastest rate, the data showed.

US Allies Say China Is Developing Attack Drones for Russia

Alberto Nardelli, Jennifer Jacobs, and Alex Wickham

Chinese and Russian companies are developing an attack drone similar to an Iranian model deployed in Ukraine, European officials familiar with the matter said, a sign that Beijing may be edging closer to providing the sort of lethal aid that western officials have warned against.

The companies held talks in 2023 about collaborating to replicate Iran’s Shahed drone, and started developing and testing a version this year in preparation for shipment to Russia, said the officials, who asked not to be identified to discuss private information. The Chinese drones have yet to be used in Ukraine, they said.

Providing Russia a Shahed-like attack drone would mark a deepening of Beijing’s support for Russia despite repeated warnings from the US and its allies. President Xi Jinping has sought to portray China as neutral in the conflict in Ukraine even as western officials say it’s provided components and other support for President Vladimir Putin’s forces.

At the same time, US officials have said China is holding off directly providing weapons and artillery, something that would signal an unprecedented escalation and almost certainly trigger more forceful action — such as sanctions — against the world’s second-biggest economy.

The Underground Network Sneaking Nvidia Chips Into China

Raffaele Huang

A 26-year-old Chinese student in Singapore was packing suitcases last fall to return home for vacation. Besides his clothes and shoes, his luggage included six of Nvidia’s NVDA 4.57%increase; green up pointing triangle advanced artificial-intelligence chips.

A connection from college asked him to bring the chips because the U.S. restricted their export to China. Each chip was roughly the size of a Nintendo Switch game console, and the student didn’t flag any suspicions at the airport.

Upon arrival, the student said he was paid $100 for each chip he carried, a fraction of the underground market worth.

The student is part of a barely concealed network of buyers, sellers and couriers bypassing the Biden administration’s restrictions aimed at denying China access to Nvidia’s advanced AI chips, The Wall Street Journal has found. Nvidia’s chips are highly coveted for their ability to handle the massive computations needed to train AI systems that are critical to China-U.S. tech rivalry.

More than 70 distributors are openly advertising online what they purport to be Nvidia’s restricted chips, and the Journal got in direct contact with 25 of them. Many of the verified sellers said they have supplies amounting to dozens of the high-end Nvidia chips each month.

Ukraine calls them meat assaults: Russia's brutal plan to take ground

Gordon Corera

On the frontlines, Ukrainian soldiers use a graphic term to describe the Russian tactics they face daily.

They call them "meat assaults": waves of Russian soldiers coming at their defensive positions, sometimes nearly a dozen times in a day.

Lt Col Anton Bayev of the Khartia Brigade of Ukraine’s National Guard says wave after wave can arrive in just a few hours at front-line positions north of Kharkiv.

“The Russians use these units in most cases purely to see where our firing equipment is located, and to constantly exhaust our units,” he said.

“Our guys stand in positions and fight, and when four or five waves of the enemy come at you in a day, which you have to destroy without end, it is very difficult - not only physically, but also psychologically.”

This tactic has led to staggering Russian casualties since Moscow launched its latest offensive two months ago. Around 1,200 Russian soldiers were being killed or wounded every day in May and June, the highest rate since the beginning of the war, according to Western officials.

'There was no preparation': One marine's story of defending Kharkiv

James Waterhouse

For months, Oleksiy has been fighting to hold a thin strip of land surrounded by Russian forces.

Now he’s been rushed to defend Moscow’s onslaught in the Kharkiv region, like many other soldiers scrambled from other parts of Ukraine’s front line.

It’s a redeployment symptomatic of this war’s new focus.
We’ve been in touch with Oleksiy for the past nine months. Now from north-eastern Ukraine, he’s described the difference in fighting as “huge”.

The ‘forgotten’ mission

Despite limited supplies, minimal gains and mounting losses, Kyiv insists its southern foothold on the occupied eastern bank of Dnipro River is still significant.

It’s where Oleksiy had been fighting for the past eight months. We’ve agreed not to reveal his real name.

We last spoke with him six months ago, where he described the conditions on the swampy riverside as “hell”.

Ehud Olmert on Israel’s Two-Front War and the Fall of Netanyah

Alexandra Sharp

In Ehud Olmert’s first major policy address as acting Israeli prime minister in 2006, he backed the creation of an independent Palestinian state. Since then, Olmert has been on the front lines of advocating for a two-state solution, overseeing the end of Israel’s 2006 Lebanon War and 2008 Gaza War as well as negotiating with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas that were just short of a lasting peace.

What if Russia Wins

Carl Bildt

If Ukraine and its Western supporters lose resolve, Europe may face a scenario where Russia subjugates the rest of Ukraine, installs a puppet regime, and gradually integrates most or all of the country into a new Russian empire.

In the long term, it would be a Pyrrhic victory for Moscow. The repressive empire would struggle to digest its occupied lands, subdue a restive population, and bear the burden of very high military expenditures in a new era of confrontation. Moscow would trade its medieval Mongol yoke for a 21st-century Chinese one—and be seriously left behind as the rest of the world enters a new green and digital age. Sooner or later, Russia would face its third state collapse in little more than a century.

A Russian victory and collapse of the Ukrainian state would have extremely grave consequences for Europe as well.

For starters, we can expect tens of millions of new refugees. In the Ukrainian territories Russia has occupied—first in 2014 and then since 2022—the population is now a fraction of what it was before. If a similar ratio applies to further Russian conquests, it would be realistic to count on 10 million to 15 million refugees, in addition to the slightly more than 4 million Europe is hosting already, flowing into nearby European states.

What is Hamas and why is it fighting with Israel in Gaza?

Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas have been at war since early October.

It began when Hamas gunmen launched an unprecedented attack on Israel from Gaza - the deadliest in Israel's history.

An Israeli military campaign has followed, which has killed thousands in the Palestinian territory.

What happened during the Hamas attacks on Israel?

On the morning of 7 October, waves of Hamas gunmen stormed across Gaza's border into Israel, killing about 1,200 people. Hamas also fired thousands of rockets.

Those killed included children, the elderly and 364 young people at a music festival. 

Hamas took more than 250 others to Gaza as hostages.

What is Hamas and why is it fighting Israel?

Hamas became the sole ruler of Gaza after violently ejecting political rivals in 2007.

It has an armed wing and was thought to have about 30,000 fighters before the start of the war.

The group, whose name stands for Islamic Resistance Movement, wants to create an Islamic state in place of Israel. Hamas rejects Israel's right to exist and is committed to its destruction.

Hamas faces growing public dissent as Gaza war erodes support

Lucy Williamson & Rushdi Aboualouf

The man in the video is beside himself, a mask of anguish radiating through his bloodied face.

“I am an academic doctor,” he says, “I had a good life, but we have a filthy [Hamas] leadership. They got used to our bloodshed, may God curse them! They are scum!”

The video - unthinkable before the Gaza war - was filmed outside a hospital, inundated with hundreds of Palestinian casualties after an Israeli operation to free hostages from central Gaza last month.

Seconds before the video ends, he turns to the crowd.

“I’m one of you,” he says, “but you are a cowardly people. We could have avoided this attack!”

The video went viral. And it’s not the only one.

Open criticism of Hamas has been growing in Gaza, both on the streets and online.

Some have publicly criticised Hamas for hiding the hostages in apartments near a busy marketplace, or for firing rockets from civilian areas.

What Is Hybrid Warfare? How Is Russia Employing It in the War in Ukraine?

Jordan Robertson, Jeff Stone, and Kati Pohjanpalo

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was visible to the world in news reports that included eyewitness accounts and images of missile strikes shared on television and social media. By contrast, a cyberattack around that time on satellite systems used by Ukraine to coordinate troop and drone movements — systems that also provided broadband service to more than 100,000 internet users in at least 13 countries across Europe and North Africa — was cloaked in mystery for weeks. To this day Russia’s government denies any involvement in it.

Such is the nature of the modern form of combat known as hybrid warfare, which marries unambiguous brute force with stealth, subterfuge and heaps of plausible deniability.

1. What is hybrid warfare?

It refers to the mixing of conventional and unconventional tactics — violent and nonviolent, virtual and real-world, overt and covert — to attack another country. The toolkit includes state-on-state cyberattacks — cyberwarfare — as well as disinformation, economic pressure, propaganda, sabotage and the use of irregular forces, such as uniformed soldiers with no identifying insignia. Even weaponizing immigrants and jamming global positioning system (GPS) signals have become part of Russia’s strategy. Hybrid attacks are “used to blur the lines between war and peace, and attempt to sow doubt in the minds of target populations,” according to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Russia’s War Against Ukraine Driving Evolution of Cyber Warfare

Luke Rodeheffer

The war in Ukraine is being fought not only in trenches but increasingly in cyberspace. State-sponsored hackers and hacktivist groups are actively fighting on both sides of the conflict. The lines between the two groups can often blur. Some members of state security agencies are taking advantage of this opportunity to moonlight as members of loosely knit hacktivist networks, and cyber actors are coordinating their activities over the Internet. One example of this phenomenon is Ukraine’s Information Technology (IT) Army. Within three days of Russia’s invasion, Ukrainian Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov called for the creation of a volunteer IT army that would coordinate activities over Telegram against Russian targets (2Plus2, February 29). The IT Army allows any volunteer to join and distributes free tools for conducting cyberattacks over the Internet. The group has had some success performing distributed-denial-of-service attacks against Russian companies and infrastructure. Members have been using tens of thousands of network devices to overwhelm target Internet infrastructure with connection requests, most recently leading to interruptions in service for Mir, Russia’s national payment system (Habr, June 20). The increased use of cyber warfare and collaboration between state entities and hacktivist networks demonstrates a changing landscape in the future of war that will soon be difficult for international security networks to control.

In parallel with the growing ties between state and non-state hackers, cyberattacks are becoming more frequent and more destructive. Russia demonstrated a willingness to engage in destructive cyberattacks as relations between the two countries soured in the 2010s, most infamously targeting the Ukrainian power grid in the winter of 2015 (Epravda.com.ua, January 6, 2016).

The State of Ukrainian Air Defense (Part Three)

Hlib Parfonov

On June 30, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Russia had dropped over 800 glide bombs on targets within Ukraine, including civilian infrastructure. He declared, “Ukraine needs necessary forces and means to destroy the carriers of these bombs, mainly the Russian attack aircraft. … Launching attacks from a long distance and advanced air defense is the foundation for stopping daily Russian terror. I am grateful to all partners who realize this” (Ukrainska Pravda, June 30). Zelenskyy’s plea is the latest from the Ukrainian side for more air defense and long-range support against Russian air superiority (see Part One and Part Two). On the eve of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit in Washington, the Ukrainian president’s words will be a central point in discussions as alliance members consider options for more effectively supporting Kyiv.

After World War II, surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and their corresponding systems gradually took the central position in ground-based air defense (Dsiac.org, accessed July 2). This resulted from the emergence and development of jet aircraft, which has remained the case for decades. Russia’s war against Ukraine has changed the rules of the game dramatically. Small, cheap, and mass-produced drones have now become key elements for army air defense (see Part Two). It is important to consider these new challenges when determining Ukraine’s most critical needs.

UN urges Russia to ‘immediately’ cease interference in European satellites

Daryna Antoniuk

The United Nations' telecommunication agency condemned Russian interference in the satellite systems of several European countries.

Earlier this month, the UN’s International Telecommunication Union (ITU) received a series of complaints from Ukraine, France, Sweden, the Netherlands and Luxembourg about the Kremlin’s alleged satellite interference that has affected GPS signals and television channels.

The ITU reviewed these complaints and published a document Monday calling the practice “extremely worrisome and unacceptable.”

According to the ITU, Russia’s satellite interference had repeatedly affected specific channels predominantly carrying Ukrainian television and radio programming. Earlier reports said that Russia targeted children's TV channels to show violent images of the war in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s complaint to the ITU documented at least 11 cases of interference in the last three months affecting dozens of Ukrainian television programs, Reuters reported.

Biden Tells Allies He Knows He Has Only Days to Salvage Candidacy

Katie Rogers

President Biden has told key allies that he knows the coming days are crucial and understands that he may not be able to salvage his candidacy if he cannot convince voters that he is up to the job after a disastrous debate performance last week.

According to two allies who have spoken with him, Mr. Biden has emphasized that he is still deeply committed to the fight for re-election but understands that his viability as a candidate is on the line.

The president sought to project confidence on Wednesday in a call with his campaign staff, even as White House officials were trying to calm nerves among the ranks inside the Biden administration.

“No one’s pushing me out,” Mr. Biden said in the call. “I’m not leaving.”

Vice President Kamala Harris was also on the line.

“We will not back down. We will follow our president’s lead,” she said. “We will fight, and we will win.”

Still, Mr. Biden’s allies said that the president had privately acknowledged that his next few appearances heading into the July 4 holiday weekend must go well, particularly an interview with George Stephanopoulos scheduled to air Friday on ABC and campaign stops in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

AI-Augmented Disinformation Is NATO’s New Battlefield


NATO’s July summit in Washington marks the 75th anniversary of the alliance’s establishment, and it comes at a critical juncture. As threats to global stability evolve beyond conventional military domains, NATO must confront the barrage of disinformation undermining its unity and values. Specifically, member countries must prevent hostile authoritarian regimes from manipulating public opinion by leveraging technology to wage “cognitive warfare.”

Will Biden Spoil It All?


After US President Joe Biden’s stumbling and unconvincing performance during the debate with former President Donald Trump on June 27, it is no exaggeration to say that the future of our planet may depend on a decision he must make. Does he want to go down in history as the man who was responsible for the disastrous consequences of a second Trump presidency? Will he join others whose lifelong efforts to do good were undone by their refusal to put the public interest first?

Britain’s Dangerous Migration Fixation


After 14 long years of Tory rule, the United Kingdom’s general election on July 4 could determine the political fate of the Conservative Party. While Prime Minister Rishi Sunak may have hoped to capitalize on declining inflation and improved economic performance, polls show the Conservatives trailing far behind Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, with Sunak poised to lose his own parliamentary seat.

The Tech Crash Course That Trains US Diplomats to Spot Threats


In a sunlight-filled classroom at the US State Department’s diplomacy school in late February, America’s cyber ambassador fielded urgent questions from US diplomats who were spending the week learning about the dizzying technological forces shaping their missions.

“This portfolio is one of the most interesting and perhaps the most consequential at this moment in time,” Nathaniel Fick, the US ambassador-at-large for cyberspace and digital policy, told the roughly three dozen diplomats assembled before him at the Foreign Service Institute in Arlington, Virginia. “Getting smart on these issues … is going to serve everyone really well over the long term, regardless of what other things you go off and do.”

The diplomats, who had come from overseas embassies and from State Department headquarters in nearby Washington, DC, were the sixth cohort of students to undergo a crash course in cybersecurity, telecommunications, privacy, surveillance, and other digital issues, which Fick’s team created in late 2022. The training program—the biggest initiative yet undertaken by State’s two-year-old cyber bureau—is intended to reinvigorate US digital diplomacy at a time when adversaries like Russia and China are increasingly trying to shape how the world uses technology.

Rumor of North Korea Troops in Ukraine Shows Threat to the West - Opinion

Hal Brands

There are lies, damn lies and rumors about North Korea. So treat recent reports that Pyongyang will send troops to aid Russia’s assault on Ukraine with more than a grain of salt.

Yet the summit that spurred those rumors, and the North Korea-Russia military alliance it produced, are part of something very real and very worrying — the tightening of ties between America’s adversaries.

Those relationships are racing ahead in ways virtually no one would have predicted a few years ago. The US needs to get ready for a world in which they keep advancing, in surprising and disturbing ways.

The rumors about a potential North Korean deployment to Ukraine were the echo of a remarkable meeting in Pyongyang. Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un pledged to continue building a relationship that has given Russia shells, missiles and bullets for use in Ukraine, in exchange for Russian help with North Korea’s weapons programs and diplomatic support in its confrontation with the international community.

The two leaders also shocked most foreign-affairs analysts by signing a mutual defense treaty that pledges one country to aid the other if it is attacked.

A July 4th Address for the Ages

Francis P. Sempa

Two years before he formulated the ideas for the Monroe Doctrine, then-Secretary of State John Quincy Adams was asked to give the annual Independence Day address in the United States Capitol. It became what historian Samuel Flagg Bemis called a landmark document in the history of American foreign policy. Its message continues to resonate in modern debates about U.S. foreign policy.

Before getting into the details of Adams’ address, some background about Adams and 1821 (the year he delivered the speech) is necessary. John Quincy Adams was the son of John Adams, one of the driving forces behind America’s independence and the nation’s second president. Young John Quincy accompanied his father in diplomatic posts in France, and later served as private secretary to Francis Dana in Russia. Young Adams also had served as his father’s private secretary during the negotiations of the Treaty of Paris (1783) that ended the War of Independence. He was appointed by President George Washington as U.S. Minister Resident to the Netherlands in 1794. He served in that same position in Prussia during his father’s presidency. President Madison named John Quincy U.S. Minister to Russia in 1809, and he served in that position until 1814, as the Napoleonic Wars were coming to a close. He chaired the U.S. delegation that negotiated the Treaty of Ghent which ended the War of 1812 with Great Britain, and later served as U.S. Minister to Great Britain in the aftermath of Napoleon’s defeat at Waterloo. President James Monroe appointed John Quincy as Secretary of State. In 1824, Adams won the disputed presidential election in the House of Representatives, where he bested military hero Andrew Jackson. (Jackson would later claim that Adams won the presidency in a “corrupt bargain” with Henry Clay, whom Adams appointed as Secretary of State).

Germany, Poland Team Up Against Russia as U.S. and French Elections Test West’s Unity

Bertrand Benoit and Thomas Grove

Sidestepping historic animosity and a decade of political tension, Germany and Poland pledged to boost defense cooperation amid fears that a Trump victory in November could herald a period of vulnerability for NATO in its confrontation with Russia.

The former World War II foes—both of whom see Moscow as their biggest security threat—pledged to increase their military coordination from procurement to training, reinforce the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s military presence near Russia, and better coordinate their assistance to Ukraine.

“The security of Poland is also the security of Germany,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in Warsaw after the two countries’ first government consultations in six years. “We will pool our capacities, and we will coordinate more…We will jointly take responsibility for the protection of NATO’s eastern flank.”

The announcement marks an inflection point in the relationship between NATO’s two military heavyweights in Central Europe, which viewed each other with deep suspicion for nearly a decade as Poland’s successive nationalist governments stoked anti-German sentiment. In Poland, Scholz’s arrival signaled his willingness to address shared security concerns voiced by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a pro-European moderate who has worked to rebuild alliances since his election late last year.

How ‘Misinformation’ Becomes Common Knowledge

Timur Kuran

How did something considered misinformation on Thursday afternoon become common knowledge by Thursday night?

The social mechanism that converts supposed misinformation into consensus is a topic that I have studied for many years. It involves something ubiquitous: the twin acts of misrepresenting what we know and what we want under perceived social pressures. As I explained in my book, Private Truths, Public Lies, such expressions of insincerity can do serious harm. The Biden-Trump debate and its aftermath provide a powerful case in point. Allow me to explain.

Until Thursday night’s CNN debate, a majority of Democrats were afraid to tell a basic truth in public—to say openly what they know about Joe Biden’s physical and mental health—for fear of emboldening Donald Trump or taking a position that may seem adverse to their party. So they kept their knowledge of his declining cognitive abilities private and, in public, conveyed impressions and issued reports at odds with their own senses.

If they felt that a different candidate had a higher chance of beating Trump, with rare exception they kept that preference hidden and pretended to agree with the idea, repeated ad infinitum, that Biden remained the party’s best hope.

Remember the Wampanoag

Bing West

Today, millions of drones are battling in the Ukrainian sky, while unmanned naval variants stalk Russian ships. Cheap unmanned kinetic systems have changed the 21st-Century face of war. This surprised the intelligence community, the Pentagon, and its major defense contractors. Every Ukrainian infantry platoon employs drones to kill any single Russian soldier venturing into the open. Unmanned seaborne drones sank so many warships that Russia pulled its fleet out of most of the Black Sea, enabling Ukraine to resume grain exports deemed impossible when the war began. President Biden, intimidated by Putin, has forbidden Ukraine from employing U.S.-provided weapons to strike inside Russia. Nonetheless, Ukraine is employing its own patchwork drones to hit deep inside enemy territory.

Over the past three years, the face of war in the 21st Century has been forever altered by the commoditization of digital technologies. This has enabled unmanned systems to wreak destruction at a fraction of the previous costs. These cheap economies of scale are advantaging Iran, Russia, and China, because the American military procurement system has not adapted.

The economist Joseph Schumpeter coined the memorable phrase “creative destruction” to summarize how upstart companies, decade after decade, have introduced manufacturing innovations that destroyed more established companies. Cars bankrupted buggy whip companies, digital photography doomed Kodak, etc. In the free marketplace, millions of consumers choose what to buy. If a company does not keep pace, its products fail to sell, and bankruptcy follows.