Pakistan Weighs Its Options, as India Readies For War

Ajai Shukla

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India’s military is reacting furiously to the terrorist attack at an idyllic, high-altitude meadow in Pahalgam, Kashmir, on April 22, in which heavily armed terrorists gunned down at least 26 unarmed tourists and honeymooners.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed retribution and promised that India will pursue the Kashmir attackers to “the ends of the earth.”

Believing an Indian attack imminent, Pakistan is readying its military. So far, India has apparently mobilized only its conventional (non-nuclear) weaponry. However, Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khwaja Muhammad Asif has invoked its weapons of last resort, issuing a thinly-veiled reminder of its nuclear deterrent.

Referring, as Pakistan usually does, to its nuclear arsenal as “strategic,” Defense Minister Asif told Reuters in Islamabad: “In the current situation, some strategic decisions have to be taken. So those decisions have been taken.”

Asked about the prospect of Indian armed retaliation, Asif said: “It is something, which is imminent now.” He further declared that “Pakistani forces have been reinforced.”

Is India Really Winning Its War on Poverty?

Soumyabrata Mondal

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In a striking announcement this April, the World Bank claimed that India has successfully lifted 171 million people out of extreme poverty over the decade spanning 2011-12 to 2022-23. According to its latest Poverty and Equity Brief, extreme poverty in India – defined as living on less than $2.15 per day (in 2017 PPP terms) – dropped from 16.2 percent to a mere 2.3 percent.

At first glance, this seems a staggering achievement for a country historically burdened with widespread deprivation. Yet, as one probes beneath these numbers, a critical question arises: has poverty truly declined to the extent these statistics suggest, or are we witnessing yet another episode of data-driven myth-making divorced from India’s lived realities?

This piece attempts to unpack the duality between official narratives and ground realities, examining whether India’s poverty story is one of substantive transformation or statistical optimism.

The World Bank report noted that rural extreme poverty fell from 18.4 percent in 2011-12 to 2.8 percent in 2022-23, while urban extreme poverty declined from 10.7 percent to 1.1 percent. The gap between rural and urban poverty narrowed from 7.7 to 1.7 percentage points, reflecting an annual decline of 16 percent. Furthermore, India transitioned into a lower-middle-income country during this period, with poverty at the $3.65 per day line falling from 61.8 percent to 28.1 percent, lifting 378 million people out of poverty.

Time-Bombs Ticking Along Himalayan Mountains: Need For Emergent Action During International Year Of Glaciers’ Preservation – Analysis

Bonani Roychoudhury

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When on 4 October 2023 heavy rains caused the glacial South Lhonak lake in Sikkim, a state in north-eastern India, to breach its banks causing a glacial lake outburst flood, it was a natural disaster which made India wake up to these time-bombs ticking along the vast Himalayan mountain-ranges.

It is worth recounting today what happened on that fateful day: flood waters reached the Teesta III Dam at Chungthang at midnight, and even before its gates could be opened, the dam was destroyed in minutes. Water levels downstream in the Teesta river rose by up to 20 feet (6.1 m), causing widespread damage.

The Indo-Tibetan Border Police had been quick to act at midnight, but they could not save the dam, as well as the bridge to its 1200-MW hydroelectric powerhouse. These were completely submerged. The water-levels in Teesta river rose by 15 to 20 feet (4.6 to 6.1 m), flooding many areas in Sikkim, as well as downstream areas in the eastern Indian state of West Bengal. The flood waters gushed onwards to Bangladesh, affecting hundreds of villages along the Teesta river and Char (flood plains) areas.

What Will Clashes With India Mean for Pakistan’s Fragile Ruling Alliance?

Kunwar Khuldune Shahid

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On April 25, Pakistan’s Senate passed a unanimous resolution against India following the April 22 Pahalgam attack. The resolution, which asked New Delhi to not blame Pakistan for the militant raid in Indian-administered Kashmir, was spearheaded by Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar and Senator Sherry Rehman, senior leaders of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the two parties leading the government coalition in the center.

The Senate resolution came a day after the National Security Committee (NSC), featuring the civil and military leadership of the country, announced it would end bilateral trade and close airspace for India, in response to New Delhi’s own measures last week, spearheaded by the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). For the ruling alliance in Pakistan – whether the PML-N and PPP coalition government, or the hybrid regime continuing military control over the civilian rulers – the Pahalgam attack has provided an opportunity to shroud the growing cracks with a vociferous show of unity.

The faultlines, however, were evident in The Diplomat’s conversations with members of the government. Leaders of the two major parties not only underscored their reservations with one another, but also reiterated the extent of the military’s stranglehold over the regime. While there has largely been acceptance within the civilian ranks that this status quo will persist, the clashes with India have opened a can of worms owing to the resurfacing of the allegations that Pakistan is backing jihadists at a time the West is increasingly cracking down on radical Islamism.

Why U.S. Tariffs Can Be an Unlikely Opportunity for India

Kriti Upadhyaya

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Earlier this month, the United States announced a 27 percent tariff on Indian goods as part of a broader reciprocal trade policy. The move has obviously drawn close attention in New Delhi. And despite seeming a challenge, it may hide a rare opportunity. If India leans into policy boldness, the tariffs could act not as a brake on Indian ambition — but a powerful accelerant for structural reform and global competitiveness.

India has long used tariffs to protect its domestic industries. At 17.1 percent, India's average applied tariff rate remains among the highest in the world. Key sectors from automobiles to electronics to agriculture have long benefited from these protectionist measures and often at the expense of scale and global integration. A moment of external pressure could provide just the jolt needed to course-correct.

A Strategic Opening in the China +1 Landscape

Once implemented, the new tariff regime announced by the United States can reshuffle the competitive landscape across Asia. While India faces an average tariff of 27% on exports to the U.S., other competitors face even higher tariffs: China now contends with 34%, Vietnam 46%, Bangladesh 37%, and Thailand 36%.

The Chinese Mercenaries Fighting Russia’s War in Ukraine

Elizabeth Wishnick

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On April 8, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed that over 163 Chinese nationals have been fighting for Russia, including 155 on Ukrainian territory, and that the Ukrainian military had captured two of them, identified as Wang Guangjun and Zhang Renbo. According to the Kyiv Independent, which reviewed a Ukrainian intelligence document about the Chinese mercenaries, the Ukrainian government obtained passport data for some of these recruits.

Although this relatively small number of Chinese mercenaries will not have a major impact on Russia’s ability to conduct the war, their presence provides new insight into China’s role in this conflict within the context of its overall approach to security in conflict zones.

What the Chinese Mercenaries Told Journalists

The presence of the Chinese mercenaries alongside the Russian military in Ukraine likely was not news to users of Douyin, the popular Chinese video app (internationally branded as TikTok). Reports from Chinese nationals fighting for Russia have been posted on Douyin for months.

Countering China’s navy: the US air fleet’s growing anti-ship role

Rupert Schulenburg

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In response to China’s advances in its maritime capabilities, the United States is working to bolster the anti-ship capabilities of its air fleet. A key focus of this effort is the integration of the Lockheed Martin AGM-158C Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM) across a wider variety of platforms.

Designed to engage high-value maritime surface targets at stand-off range, the sub-sonic cruise missile features a 370+ kilometre range and is fitted with a 450-kilogram warhead. The LRASM also includes a data link for in-flight target updates and a low-observable profile to help it penetrate advanced integrated air-defence systems. With the US Navy’s cancellation of the Hypersonic Air-Launched Offensive (HALO) missile this April, the LRASM will continue to serve as the United States’ most advanced air-launched anti-ship missile for the foreseeable future.

Presently, only the US Navy’s Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and the US Air Force’s Rockwell B-1B Lancer carry the LRASM. Work is now at various stages integrating the missile on the Lockheed Martin F-35B/C Lightning II and the Boeing P-8A Poseidon. Efforts are also underway to equip the Boeing F-15E Strike Eagle and F-15EX Eagle II, as well as the Lockheed Martin F-16C/D Fighting Falcon, with the missile. This could potentially be intended to also address export requirements.

Deepfakes Now Come With A Realistic Heartbeat, Making Them Harder To Unmask

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Imagine a world where deepfakes have become so good that no detection mechanism can unmask them as imposters. This would be a bonanza for criminals and malignant state actors: for example, these might use deepfakes to slander rival political candidates or frame inconvenient defenders of human rights.

This nightmare scenario isn’t real yet, but for years, methods for creating deepfakes have been locked in a ‘technological arms race’ against detection algorithms. And now, scientists have shown that deepfakes have gained a significant advantage: the lack of a pulse no longer gives them away.

“Here we show for the first time that recent high-quality deepfake videos can feature a realistic heartbeat and minute changes in the color of the face, which makes them much harder to detect,” said Dr Peter Eisert, a professor at the Humboldt University of Berlin, and the corresponding author of a new study in Frontiers in Imaging.

No winners, all losers in US-China trade war

Kai He

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The United States and China remain in a standoff in their tariff war. Neither side appears willing to budge.

After US President Donald Trump imposed massive 145% tariffs on Chinese imports in early April, China retaliated with its own tariffs of 125% on US goods.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this week it’s up to China to de-escalate tensions. China’s Foreign Ministry, meanwhile, said the two sides are not talking.

The prospect of economic decoupling between the world’s two largest economies is no longer speculative. It is becoming a hard reality. While many observers debate who might “win” the trade war, the more likely outcome is that everyone loses.

A convenient target

Trump’s protectionist agenda has spared few. Allies and adversaries alike have been targeted by sweeping US tariffs. However, China has served as the main target, absorbing the political backlash of broader frustrations over trade deficits and economic displacement in the US.

The economic costs to China are undeniable. The loss of reliable access to the US market, coupled with mounting uncertainty in the global trading system, has dealt a blow to China’s export-driven sectors.

The US Is Already Losing the New Cold War to China

Hal Brands

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Of all today’s crises and conflicts, the US-China rivalry will most fundamentally remake our world. A contest between the two top powers will shape the international system and the lives of people everywhere. At best, it will be a long, tense struggle — a “New Cold War” — lasting many years. At worst, it could explode into nuclear catastrophe. For Americans, winning this competition will be the central challenge of our time.

Beijing understands the stakes. For decades, it has been working to overtake the US as Asia’s leading power. Its long-term goal, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has stated, is to make “a future where we will win the initiative and have the dominant position.” Since 2017, two different US presidents — Donald Trump and Joe Biden — have identified China as America’s foremost rival. America’s military, economy and government are being transformed by competition with Beijing. In a polarized country, anti-China policies are among the few measures that can still win broad, bipartisan support.

But are those policies effective? How is America faring in the defining fight of our time?

That was the question I asked an all-star group of experts — academics, think-tankers, former US officials and others — at a conference at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies earlier this month. Their answers will be published as a book this summer. What follows is my own take on the seven vital lessons for the new cold war.

How the Middle East Undermines US Global Strategy

Kamran Bokhari

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The United States is in the process of a historic shift in its geostrategy meant to reduce its exposure to global conflicts. The Middle East, however, seems to be an exception; U.S. military forces continue to engage in combat and, if anything, have beefed up their deployment. The Middle East is much more fragile than other theaters, so Washington will need to work much harder to succeed in relying on regional stakeholders to take the lead on security issues.

On April 28, a U.S. Navy F/A-18E Super Hornet was lost overboard from the USS Harry S. Truman while operating in the Red Sea. Though the incident itself was human error, it happened only because the carrier was making a sharp turn to evade incoming missile and drone attacks being launched by Houthi forces. This is the second aircraft of its kind to be lost in the area over the past four months – the first one was mistakenly shot down by the USS Gettysburg, a guided-missile cruiser, last December.

The incident this month comes as the U.S. military operational tempo has greatly increased in the region. Over the past six weeks alone, Washington has conducted over 800 airstrikes in Yemen. For the U.S., this spike is necessary given that the Houthis have disrupted commercial traffic through the Red Sea and targeted U.S. naval vessels since late 2023. The problem, however, is that the U.S. has spent as much as a billion dollars over the past three weeks to degrade the Houthis, who can threaten freedom of navigation by spending only tens of thousands of dollars. This is clearly an unsustainable imbalance of expenditures.

Saudi Signals and Trump Tariffs Are Cracking the Oil Market

Alex Kimani

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Low inventories reported today by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) did nothing to staunch the bleeding, with WTI getting gutted nearly 4% on the day, and Saudi rumors throwing another spanner in the works, while new U.S. economic data suggests more pain is in store for the sector.

Three weeks ago, eight OPEC+ countries unveiled plans to phase-out their voluntary oil output cuts by ramping up output in May by 411,000 barrels per day--equivalent to three monthly increments. The announcement came at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on more than 90 countries across the globe, roiling oil markets. The eight OPEC+ countries are due to meet on 5 May to discuss production levels for June, just days after Washington released a worrying economic report. The U.S. economy shrank at an annualized 0.3% clip in the first quarter, marking the first contraction in three years, due to surging imports as companies rushed to stock up before Trump’s 90-day pause on elevated tariffs comes to an end. That’s a sharp turnaround in fortunes compared to the final quarter of 2024 when the economy expanded by 2.4%.

Quantum Technologies in the UK

Rob Young

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Quantum Technologies in the UK Risks and Opportunities for National Security

Quantum physics is the branch of science that describes the behaviour of the world of the small; it defines the properties of atoms, molecules, electrons and photons. Quantum science has been explored for decades, but practical applications have only emerged in recent years. Through its National Quantum Technologies Programme and other investments, the UK is one of the leading countries driving innovation in quantum computing, security and sensing. These technologies promise transformative impact across multiple sectors, from healthcare to finance, defence, energy and national security. 

As with all technologies, quantum devices pose threats to national security: quantum computers can be applied to attack encryption standards; quantum security could keep communications by nefarious groups secure; and quantum sensors may be used to track military operations that would otherwise be considered covert. 

Ensuring that the UK retains its competitive position in developing quantum technologies and establishing a robust supply chain demands significant investment in specialised resources and expertise, both technical and operational.

UK Sanctions Implementation and Strategy Taskforce: Ransomware Sanctions

Jamie MacColl, Dr Gareth Mott and Gonzalo Saiz Erausquin

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Introduction

On 9 February 2023, the UK and US governments jointly sanctioned seven members of Conti/Trickbot, a ransomware group responsible for attacks against at least 149 UK individuals and businesses.1 The move marked the UK government’s entry into the ransomware sanctions arena. Over the years since, the ransomware sanctions regime has expanded and has become a core component of the UK’s counter-ransomware strategy. The government aims to use sanctions to expose ransomware criminals’ identities, undermine their ability to monetise ransomware, and degrade other criminals’ trust in key ransomware services.2

However, there are significant challenges posed by designing, implementing and enforcing ransomware sanctions in a way that achieves the government’s goals. In this context, in February 2025, as part of ongoing work through its UK Sanctions Implementation and Strategy Taskforce,3 RUSI convened an online workshop to discuss the UK’s experience with ransomware sanctions to date. The workshop was jointly organised by the Centre for Finance and Security and the Cyber and Tech research group at RUSI. A select group of 35 expert stakeholders from the UK, US and Canada attended the workshop. Participants represented a diverse range of professional backgrounds. These included incident responders, ransomware payment brokers, cryptocurrency tracers, lawyers, academics, law enforcement officers and UK government officials.

Space Technologies in the UK

Clifford Fletcher-Jones

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Securing the Stars From Start-Ups to Sustainable Space Power

S pace technology plays a pivotal role in advancing the UK’s economic interests and ensuring national security. Space technology that has particular relevance to national security, and is being developed at pace by the UK’s flourishing small companies includes small satellites, indigenous launch and spaceports, sustainable space initiatives, space-developed biopharmaceuticals and secure communications. With a focus on making the intersection of space technology, security and sustainability readily understandable, this briefing aims to provide non-specialist policymakers with insights into the strategic opportunities and challenges shaping the UK’s technological space future.

Demystifying (Some) Space Technology

National and Geopolitical Relevance of Space Technology

The UK’s investment in space technologies underscores their importance in a rapidly shifting global landscape. Spacepower is a cornerstone of national security, with satellites supporting critical infrastructure such as finance, navigation and defence systems. Geopolitically, as espoused in the National Space Strategy, the Defence Space Strategy and the Space Industrial Plan, the UK aims to position itself as a leader in sustainable and responsible space use, balancing commercial opportunities with ethical considerations

Can the Three Seas Initiative Save the US-Ukraine Critical Materials and Minerals Deal?

Farrell Gregory and Grant Turner

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On 28 February, President Trump and Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy were expected to sign a preliminary critical materials and mineral deal. The partnership intended to finance Kyiv’s defence against Russia, its post-war reconstruction and the repayment of US assistance via a joint fund drawing on the rights and revenues of Ukraine’s relevant resources. However, it fell short of a security guarantee, which Trump said Europe must be responsible for.

The contentious Oval Office meeting failed to produce a signed agreement, and indicated that the interests of Ukraine and the United States may be diverging. The summit's outcome also reflected an impasse on several points, such as prerequisites to peace negotiations, peacekeeping and the conditions for continued aid (which Trump subsequently froze).

In the days that followed, European leaders convened in London and Brussels to voice support for Ukraine, while discussing the future of transatlantic relations and the continent’s changing role in the war in the context of Trump’s apparent 'Russia reset.' The most significant outcomes thus far include the European Commission setting a goal of increasing defence spending by $700 to $850 billion, and the loosening of budget restrictions in order to pursue it.

Spain and Portugal’s Blackout: Is Renewable Energy Part of the Story?

Emily Day

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A massive power outage on April 28, 2025, interrupted daily life across Spain, Portugal, and parts of France. The blackout, which started around 12:30 pm local time, stopped subway and train operations, closed airports in Lisbon, Madrid, and Barcelona, disabled traffic lights, and disrupted phone and ATM services throughout the Iberian Peninsula. Just prior to the blackout, Spain’s electricity network website showed a steep drop in demand from 27,500 megawatts (MW) to about 15,000 MW. Spain’s nuclear safety council confirmed that the country’s nuclear reactors are in “safe condition” despite the outage and that emergency generators have kicked in.

Between Spain and Portugal, the two countries have over fifty million inhabitants, though the exact number impacted is not yet known. Authorities believe power should largely be restored within six to ten hours, however, full normalization of grid operations could take as long as a week. French grid operator RTE is helping to restore power, already resupplying 700 MW, and will increase aid as the Iberian grid is able to receive it.

The cause of the outage has not yet been confirmed, though Antonio Costa, President of the European Council, and Portugal’s Prime Minister, Luis Montenegro, have emphasized that there are no indications of a cyberattack at this point. Portugal’s grid operator, REN, attributed the supply interruptions to a “fault in the Spanish electricity grid” related to a “rare atmospheric phenomenon” caused by extreme temperature variations. Both REN and Spain’s power grid operator, Red Eléctrica, reported that a “strong oscillation in the electrical network” caused Spain’s grid to disconnect from the broader European system.

At last, the US and Ukraine signed a minerals deal. Here’s what to expect next.

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Rock paper signed. After months of getting close only to come up short—including a rocky Oval Office meeting in late February between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy—the United States and Ukraine quietly struck a much-anticipated economic partnership on Wednesday. The agreement is intended to open US access to Ukraine’s natural resources, including its critical minerals, while helping to finance Ukraine’s reconstruction. What does the partnership entail? Where do Washington and Kyiv stand with each other now? And what message does the deal send to Russia? Below, Atlantic Council experts dig into the details and offer their answers.

This deal gives Trump a concrete interest in Ukraine’s survival

This is a bad day for Russian President Vladimir Putin. The deal is a plus for US economic and national security policy. One, it is essential for the United States to have friends providing critical minerals. It cannot be dependent on adversaries such as China or Russia for that. So that is a plus. It is also positive for Ukraine, and not just because it now has an investor clearly committed to working on this subject of Ukrainian economic development. More importantly, this deal gives Trump—in terms he understands—concrete interest in Ukraine’s long-term survival as a secure, economically viable state.

Why East Asia Is a Target of Trump’s Tariff War, in Six Charts

Joshua Kurlantzick

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On President Donald Trump’s much-touted April 2 “Liberation Day,” he unveiled a range of potentially debilitating “reciprocal” tariffs on the United States’ major trading partners—and most other countries as well. Surprisingly, some of the countries facing the highest tariffs after the April announcement were U.S. partners in Asia, such as Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam; Vietnam, a huge trading partner, was hit with a 46 percent “reciprocal” tariff. Trump also put tariffs on Cambodia—a whopping 49 percent for one of East Asia’s poorest countries—and even Australia, a critical security ally that has a trade surplus with the United States.

What’s behind Trump’s proposed tariff policy?

After the bond markets dropped precipitously in response to his initial “reciprocal” tariffs, Trump temporarily paused many of the higher tariffs on countries other than China. The U.S.-China tariff-raising contest that has since followed has led to both countries placing more than 100 percent levies on the other’s products and goods.

Despite delaying many of his “Liberation Day” plans, Trump has not wiped out all tariffs. His remaining near-universal 10 percent tariffs on virtually all imports, combined with the massive duties on China, have created the highest average U.S. tariff rate since 1901, when tariff battles grew and later contributed to the Great Depression. U.S. consumers and companies now face roughly 28 percent tariffs on imports overall. This is in stark contrast with the 2 percent average tariffs during President Joe Biden’s administration.

Seven takeaways from US-Ukraine resources deal

Paul Kirby, James FitzGerald and Tom Geoghegan

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The US and Ukraine have signed a deal that will give Washington access to some of the war-torn country's natural resources.

Months in the making, it sets up an investment fund that Ukraine hopes will cement US assistance as the country struggles to repel Russia three years after the invasion.

The Ukrainians have now published the deal and there have been public statements from both sides. Here are seven key takeaways.

No Ukrainian payback to US

Trump has previously demanded that Ukraine pay back the $350bn (£264bn) of aid that he claims has been provided by the US during the war - a condition that Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected.

But Washington appears to have made a concession. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said the agreement did not dictate that his country pay back any supposed "debt".

Russia Expands Foothold in East Africa

John C. K. Daly

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On February 19, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov provided an overview of Russian foreign policy to the State Duma in Moscow, telling legislators that after a period of disengagement following the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia is “re-engaging” with Africa. Russia hosted the inaugural Russia-Africa Partnership Forum with more than 1,500 delegates and state officials convening in Sochi in November 2024 (Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, November 10, 2024). The Forum was convened pursuant to the second Russia-Africa Summit in 2023 in St. Petersburg, which focused on economic and humanitarian cooperation (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, February 19; Russia-Africa, accessed April 28). The Soviet Union had a long-standing interest in East Africa, with close partners in Somalia and Ethiopia (Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, May 6, 1977, August 10, 2007). As post-Soviet Russia revives its presence in Africa, its efforts have broadened to include Eritrea, Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, and Egypt. In 2024, Russian troops were deployed to Burkina Faso and Mali, and at least four African states began negotiating the construction of nuclear power plants using Russian technology (see EDM, March 18, 2024; Russian Council for International Affairs, February 10).

Russia’s revived East Africa policies have a prominent military component, including an arrangement with Sudan to establish a naval base at Port Sudan on its Red Sea coast (see EDM, November 14, 2023, March 6). On February 12, Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Youssef Ahmed al-Sharif confirmed the agreement during a press conference in Moscow, stating that there are no obstacles to its implementation (RBC, February 12). The base will solidify Russia’s strategic reach across Africa and the Middle East by offering direct access to the Red Sea, a chokepoint that links the eastern Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean via the Suez Canal (see EDM, March 6).

This We’ll Defend

Gen. Randy A. George, Chief of Staff, U.S. Army

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This year, our Army celebrates a major milestone. For two and a half centuries, the Army has answered the call to defend this Nation. Our motto, “This We’ll Defend,” is more than just words—it is why we exist and our promise to the American people. For 250 years, as the world changed and the battlefield evolved, our promise has not wavered.

America’s Oldest Institution

The Army’s origins date back to before we were even a country. In the spring of 1775, the shot heard around the world at Lexington and Concord led to fighting between colonial militias and British forces. But to secure our independence, the country needed one collective, professional force.

On 14 June 1775, the Second Continental Congress resolved “that six companies of expert riflemen be immediately raised in Pennsylvania, two in Maryland, and two in Virginia; … and join the army near Boston, to be there employed as light infantry, under the command of the chief Officer in that army.”1

With this act, the Continental Army was born, transforming disparate colonial militias into a unified force under national authority. Since then, American soldiers have stood ready to defend freedom.

The United States needs a victory plan for the Indo-Pacific

Brian Kerg

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The United States desperately needs to plan for a long war in the Indo-Pacific region.

A troubling gap exists between US industrial capacity and the production requirements to sustain and win a war with China. While such assessments generally focus on shipbuilding due to the maritime focus of conflict scenarios, the same disparity exists in military platforms across all domains of warfare, such as aircraft, armor, ground-based air defense systems, and others. Defense analysis on these myriad gaps is abundant, but most evaluations are piecemeal in nature, focusing only on a single platform or domain, rather than taking a holistic approach to the problem.

This disjointed assessment is compounded by the lack of a rigorous analysis of the wartime manpower requirements to operate new platforms. Producing the ships, aircraft, and fighting vehicles to sustain a war against China—which would almost certainly be protracted—isn’t enough. The platforms must also be manned and supported. A guided missile destroyer, for example, requires a crew of more than 300 sailors. A single squadron of F-35B Joint Strike Fighters requires hundreds of maintainers, air controllers, fuelers, and other support personnel to remain operational. And while opening phases of a war with China would predominantly be an air and maritime fight involving ships, aircraft, and precision munitions, a long conflict fought for years would likely require nearly a hundred divisions of ground and amphibious forces from the US Army and Marine Corps.

Falling stars? Army weighing massive cut to generals, PEO offices and AFC power

Ashley Roque

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The US Army is weighing a massive overhaul that would see a reduction in the number of general officer billets and restructure the service’s organizations charged with developing requirements and buying weapons, Breaking Defense has learned.

While no decisions have been made, the tentative plan would leave the Army Chief and Vice Chief of Staff as the only functional component four-star general officers, reduce the number of Program Executive Offices (PEOs) managing weapons programs, and merge Army Futures Command (AFC) with Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

Two sources in industry have seen a document laying the plan out, while another three have heard details that match the document, they tell Breaking Defense. A timeline for such a plan being executed, or if the plan will go through at all, is unknown, but industry is taking it as a sign that major changeups are becoming inevitable with the Pentagon’s largest service.

When informed of the details of the plan, John Ferrari, a senior nonresident fellow at AEI and retired Army Maj. Gen., said, “The CSA [Chief of Staff of the Army, Gen. Randy George], along with the new administration, is really looking hard at reducing the bureaucracy to enable the actual fighting units —so overall a good first step with more needed.”

AI can accelerate scientific advance, but the real bottlenecks to progress are cultural and institutional

Abi Olvera

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In 2024, Joseph Coates was preparing for death at age 37. His medical team had informed him that his rare blood disorder—which leads to kidney failure, numb limbs, and an enlarged heart—was untreatable. Then, a doctor whom Coates and his girlfriend had met a year earlier at a rare disease summit saved his life, thanks to an artificial intelligence model that suggested an unconventional drug combination.

The doctor, David Fajgenbaum, and his team at the University of Pennsylvania used a model that sifts through thousands of existing medications to find unexpected treatments for rare diseases, coming up with a combination of chemotherapy, steroids, and immunotherapy for Coates. Drug repurposing using artificial intelligence offers hope to patients who have diseases that affect relatively few patients—and that pharmaceutical companies therefore see as unprofitable research targets.

Stories like Coates’ fuel headlines that make bold claims about artificial intelligence: AI will cure cancer, reduce climate change risks, and unlock the secrets of the brain. Tech companies promise a future shaped by machine-driven discoveries, and machine intelligence can certainly help in some aspects of science.