30 June 2016

*** Airport Attack in Istanbul Is the Latest in a Year of Terror in Turkey

Tuesday’s assault on Turkey’s largest airport continues a string of deadly terrorist attacks that have struck the country.JUNE 28, 2016

Debris and bodies seen here in photos
Edge of security area
first floor Explosion
ground floor
By The New York Times |Source: Istanbul Ataturk Airport
A Turkish government official said that shortly before 10 p.m. Tuesday, the police fired on two attackers at the entryway to Ataturk airport’s international terminal in an attempt to stop them from reaching a security checkpoint.

The two attackers then blew themselves up, the official said. A third attacker detonated explosives in the parking lot, another official said.
Forensic experts outside Ataturk airport after an explosion on Tuesday night. Murad Sezer/Reuters

Terrorist Attacks Are Occurring
With Increasing Frequency
In the past year, militant groups have executed at least 14 major terrorist attacks across Turkey, killing more than 200 people.
Kurdish militants, who have been in armed conflict with the Turkish government for decades, struck at least eight times.
The Islamic State has launched the deadliest attacks, targeting popular and crowded places.
On Monday, the State Department renewed a warning issued three months ago advising Americans about the dangers of traveling to Turkey because of terrorist threats.

  1. 5. Now do you see it? Low down in graphic in section entitled "Presence of covert groups"? Yup. Turkey is mentioned:
  2. 4. Here's what I want you to notice: Attack occurred on eve of ISIS' 2-yr caliphate-versary. Look at graphic again:
  3. 3. This isn't surprising: Turkey is only country where ISIS is accused of carrying out suicide bombings in past. Yet they have *not* claimed
  4. 2. More than 16 hrs have passed since deadly bombing at Istanbul's airport. Officials blame ISIS but they have not yet claimed credit
  5. 1 Good afternoon, today ISIS is celebrating 2yrs since announcement of their caliphate. A graphic of their progress:
  6. Death Toll In Istanbul Airport Attack Rises To 41

***The Bigger Threat

By Lt Gen Prakash Katoch
29 Jun , 2016

There is little doubt that the recent China generated cyber attack on Indian governmental and commercial establishments primarily targeting India military and the well coordinated incursion involving some 215 PLA troops from four different border points in Arunachal Pradesh and engaging in a scuffle with soldiers of the Indian Army at ‘Shankar Tikri’ in Aunachal Pradesh was to show the discomfiture over the India-US-Japan joint naval exercise Malabar 2016 being conducted in Western Pacific. The transgression of course was part of periodic PLA frolics; behaving like Chipmunks that look benign but are highly destructive.

China knows this is no 1962 and a bloody nose at the tactical level can blow the cover of self aggrandizement that she has so carefully orchestrated. What needs to be taken seriously is the cyber attack, of which China has advanced capabilities…

However, the fact remains that wherever they have been confronted, they have tucked in their tails and scrammed back. Unfortunately, bulk responses by previous governments in such cases were predictable and gutless resulting in Beijing enjoying these psychological ploys – as any bully would. Interestingly, YouTube clips of similar scuffles with Indian soldiers available on the net are good exposure for the Chinese public of PLA’s so called peaceful behavior. Hopefully the scuffle that took place this month at Shankar Tekri has been filmed by the Indian Army and put on the web.

** The EU Model and the Muslim World

By Kamran Bokhari
June 27, 2016

After Brexit, the EU should not be seen as a model for unity between nation-states.

For many around the world, it took the British referendum on EU membership to recognize that the European Union was disintegrating. The Muslim world has for decades viewed the EU as a model worth emulating in its quest to establish pan-Islamic unity. While radical Islamists seek to achieve this goal through the establishment of the caliphate, mainstream Muslims have long sought to unify by forging EU-type institutions. Neither is likely, given that, at a time when the EU is giving way to nation-states, the core of the Muslim world – the Middle East – is devolving into sub-national fragments. 

Many Muslims have had an implicit admiration for the European Union project. The more cynical ones point out that the Europeans divided the Muslim world into nation-states while unifying themselves. Now that it is all too clear that the EU will become a thing of the past, there may be a sobering realization that nationalism is more durable than any other higher-level political affiliations. The irony is that while Europe can still fall back on the sovereign nation-state, the Muslim world is struggling to sustain even this basic unit of international relations. 

In 1983, noted Cornell University political scientist Benedict Anderson published a book called “Imagined Communities: Reflections on the Origin and Spread of Nationalism.” Anderson argued that nations are socially constructed entities created by people who deem themselves part of a nation. Different people approach nationalism in different ways. They feel affinity with others based on tribe, ethnicity, geography, language, culture, religion or other characteristics.

** Reality Check: Turkey Shifts Again

By George Friedman
June 28, 2016

It is in Ankara’s interest to keep Washington on its toes.

Turkey did two very important things today. First, it apologized to Russia forshooting down a Russian fighter plane in its airspace last November. Second, it announced that it is normalizing relations with Israel. The relationship was disrupted after an incident between a Turkish flotilla to Gaza and Israeli special forces, in which several Turks were killed. The two settlements are a major move toward defusing hostility with both countries and shift the geopolitics of the region once again.

Historically, Turkey has been close to Israel and hostile to Russia. During the Cold War, Turkey was part of NATO and a key element in containing the Russians. The Russia-Turkey rivalry stems from vying for domination of the Black Sea and adjacent regions. As for Israel, Turkey’s secular regime had an interest in protecting itself and the Muslim world, particularly the Arabs. Therefore, the two countries cooperated economically and militarily.

The Russian intervention in Syria disrupted Turkish relations with Russia, whichfor a time had been amicable due to mutual energy interests. The Turks opposed Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The Russians wanted to protect it. When Russian aircraft began conducting airstrikes against anti-Assad forces in Syria, the Turks saw this as a threat to their interests and sent a signal by shooting down a Russian aircraft. The signal resulted in the rupture of relations.

100% FDI in Defence: Can it Help India Become an Arms Producer?

By Bhartendu K Singh
29 Jun , 2016

The recent policy announcement of a 100 percent limit in FDI in the defence sector is another turning point in India’s quest for self-reliance in arms production. For long, the industry and the business sector in India and abroad have been demanding unlimited access to foreign investments in defence sector on the same lines as it exists in other sectors.

Many aspects of the demand have been debated since the limit was raised to 49 percent last year. The new policy initiative, along with the not so old Defence Production Policy and Defence Procurement Procedures (DPP) should bring cheers to foreign companies willing to invest in India while retaining their management control.

However, an unlimited FDI limit is just one of the many steps needed to convert the Government’s initiative of ‘Make in India’ into a successful campaign and propel India’s quest for self-reliance in arms and weapons production.

As India starts its tryst with higher category defence production with FDI in ‘modern technology’, it would be looking for technology transfer and production splurge at cheaper rates. Given the sensitiveness in the defence sector and huge development costs, it would be difficult to convince foreign companies for technology transfer to their Indian off-springs.

Of June, War Memorials, Martyrs and Military Hollowness Being not only Material

By Ghanshyam Katoch
29 Jun , 2016

In June 1999 during the Kargil War, the over 5000m high complex of bare rugged mountain tops in Kargil Sector of J&K known as Tololing was captured which became a turning point of the War. This was obviously at a cost as many brave Indian soldiers embraced martyrdom. Martyrdom instantly makes a person immortal; He stops aging while his parents and colleagues age with time and wither away. His young profile adorns many halls of fame, memorials and unit messes. His name lives on forever on the marble, granite or basalt walls of war memorials.

On 07 Jun 2016, Prime Minister Narendra Modi laid a wreath at the premier American war memorial at the Arlington National Cemetery, the ‘Tomb of the Unknown Soldier’. Last year on 24 Dec 2015 Prime Minister Narendra Modi started off his visit to Russia by laying a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Moscow. On 11 Apr 2016 Prince William and his wife visited Delhi. An important event in the itinerary was laying a wreath at India Gate, the National Memorial for India’s soldier martyrs. The card on the wreath laid by them read “Never forgetting those who had paid the ultimate sacrifice for India”.

It is a long standing custom that the itinerary of a visiting heads of state, if he has come on a State visit, invariably includes laying a wreath at a national war memorial or tomb of the Unknown Soldier. Why is this done when there are many others who lay down their lives in the line of their public duty?

Pampore Ambush: Paradox of Counterinsurgency Operations

By Brig Narender Kumar (Retd.)
Issue: Net Edition | Date : 28 Jun , 2016

It was not long back when Army lost three of its elite special forces personnel including two officers and now CRPF (Central Reserve Police Force) have lost eight policemen in an ambush at Pampore. Both the attacks were launched on convoys and suggest that somewhere something is not right. Terrorists are targeting administrative convoys and routine administrative movements.

There are three questions that need answers, is it intelligence failure, is the SOP not being followed especially the ROP drills (Road Opening) and finally is there weakness in training / junior leadership?

There are three questions that need answers, is it intelligence failure, is the SOP (Standard Operating Procedures) not being followed especially the ROP drills (Road Opening) and finally is there weakness in training/ junior leadership? Failure of any of the above could lead to avoidable setbacks. There is a need to take a relook at the current model of CI/CT (Counter Insurgency/Counter Terrorism) grid in J&K.

J&K has a multitude of security forces each with its independent logistics chain resulting in uncontrolled and uncoordinated movements on a daily basis. There is no single agency that is exercising operational and administrative control over all the forces deployed in J&K, because Army and Rashtriya Rifles are under MOD (Ministry of Defence); CAPF (Central Armed Police Force) under MHA (Ministry of Home Affairs) and IRB (India Reserve Battalion), State Armed Police and Home Guards under state government. Multiple agencies operating in Kashmir Valley gives options to terrorists to strike at will. Almost every force is out on roads for administrative duties or for operational movement. With so many forces operating independent of each other is an ideal example how NOT to fight a proxy war/counter insurgency operations.

India’s NSG Bid Fallout And The Way Forward

June 27, 2016, 

It is imporant to examine some of the serious charges that India should not have embarked on such an excessive campaign for the NSG membership

It will also be useful to determine the future course of action to achieve India’s objective of NSG membership, especially keeping China in mind

The Plenary meeting of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) ended on Friday, 24 July, without a decision on India’s application for membership of the body. This outcome was not unforeseen. In fact, the External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, in her press conference on 19 July, had sought to moderate expectations by expressing the hope that India would enter the NSG, during the current year. Some opposition parties, particularly the Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) as well as some commentators are criticising the government for ‘embarrassing’ and lowering the prestige of India by launching a high voltage campaign and facing an ignominious defeat.

It will be instructive to critically examine some of the serious charges that India should not have embarked on such an excessive campaign for the NSG membership. It will also be useful to determine the future course of action to achieve India’s objective of NSG membership.

The Campaign

imp papers

JFK Special Warfare Center and School

· Special Warfare, January -June 2016, v. 29. no. 1 http://www.soc.mil/SWCS/SWmag/archive/SW2901/Jan-June%20Special%20Warfare2016.pdf

o Daesh and the Gray Zone: More black and White Than They Appear?

o Special Operations Command Europe

imp papers

Strategic Studies Institute

· India's Evolving Nuclear Force and Implications for U.S. Strategy in the Asia-Pacific http://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=1320

India Ranks 3rd in the World in Global Fraud, Just Behind Colombia and Sub-Saharan Africa

June 27,2016

India Ranks 3rd in the World in Global Fraud, Just Behind Colombia and Sub-Saharan Africa

NEW DELHI: The Global Fraud Report 2015-16 by risk mitigation consultancy Kroll, with the aid of the Economist Intelligence Unit, found that the perceived prevalence of fraud in India is the third highest (80 per cent) among all countries and regions surveyed across six continents. Only Colombia (83 per cent) and Sub-Saharan Africa (84 per cent) surpass India. 

An overwhelming 80 per cent of companies polled in India said they had been victims of fraud in 2015-16, up from 69 per cent in 2013-14, according to a survey report. 

The report's authors observed that while the incidence of fraud was on the rise globally, a combination of a lack of preventive measures at Indian companies and a poor legal system had resulted in 92 per cent of the respondents saying they had witnessed an increase in exposure to fraud. 

The India-centric data in the report shows that the highest incidence of fraud as reported by Indian companies is due to what the report terms ‘corruption and bribery’. 

A quarter of the respondents said they registered losses due to this. On average, the worldwide survey found that only 11 per cent of the companies reported corruption and bribery as a source of revenue loss. 


JUNE 28, 2016

It is time to look into the mirror. Fifteen years into America’s ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and South Asia, we have many memoirs and battle histories, but little consensus on what lessons to draw about why we have not achieved our objectives. Kael Weston believes it is time to better understand and learn from what he calls the 9/11 wars.

That is the quest that animated Weston to write this superlative book. In a preface devoted to describing the horrific burns and recovery of a wounded soldier, Weston discusses that pivotal moment when a burn victim first looks in the mirror and confronts what has happened to him. Metaphorically, Weston wants that disfigured veteran’s mirror test to become our own: “reflecting on what it means when a country, but not a nation, goes to war – and is still at war…. It is past time for this kind of shared reckoning.”

The author brings unique credentials and credibility to the task, and his personal experiences inevitably color the entire book in ways that should have helped this reckoning. Weston spent seven consecutive years deployed as a State Department representative, first three years in Iraq and then four more in Afghanistan. For most of that time, he served alongside marines, first in Al Anbar province and later in Helmand province.