Gotta keep on Movin’: Migration of Minorities in India

By Priyansha Singh and Chitra Rawat

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In this edition of Gotta Keep on Movin’, we explore the migration trends of minorities in India.Vulnerability manifests along numerous axes — caste, gender, religion.

Even as migration increases across the country, minorities increasingly find themselves harassed, indebted and persecuted at their destinations.

Internal Migration and Minority Groups

Afghanistan's Election Should Not Prompt U.S. Withdrawal .

By Farhat Popal

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As millions of women and girls in Afghanistan wait for the presidential election results, expected to be announced in November, they are worried. Their concern is that the country could backslide on the immense gains Afghan women have made since the fall of the Taliban. And if the United States uses a potentially chaotic election as an opportunity for a rash withdrawal, this outcome is likely.

In September, over 2 million Afghans headed to the polls, out of the 9.6 million people registered to vote. These preliminary numbers are from the Independent Election Commission, and unfortunately they show that participation among women was lower than anticipated.

Taliban violence and intimidation played a role in the low turnout. Additionally, the Commission required all voters be photographed for use with facial recognition software as an anti-fraud measure. Prior to the election, Afghan women’s-rights activists demanded this requirement be lifted as some women would be reluctant to have their photos taken, whether due to their own views or the views of a relatively conservative Afghan society.

Chief Executive Abdullah Slams Afghan President's 'Wish List' Peace Plan

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Afghanistan's Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah has criticized a new peace plan put forward by President Ashraf Ghani as an unrealistic "wish list."

In September, U.S. President Donald Trump stopped months-long negotiations with the Taliban amid ongoing militant violence.

Ghani's team last month released a seven-point proposal aimed at building on the U.S.-Taliban talks and bringing an end to Afghanistan's 18-year-old war.

"To be honest, nobody has taken that so-called seven-point plan as a plan...it's rather a wish list," said Abdullah, who is Ghani's adversary in a September 28 presidential election that has yet to decide a winner.

"Nobody is taking it seriously -- neither the people of Afghanistan, nor anybody," Abdullah said on November 5 in an interview in Kabul with French news agency AFP.

Observers have questioned whether certain proposals in the plan -- including a call for a month-long Taliban cease-fire before talks resume -- are feasible.

The Taliban has so far refused to talk to the Afghan government, which it says is a U.S. puppet.

Is China's DF-100 Missile a Threat to the U.S. Navy?

by James Holmes

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So China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) unveiled new weaponry during its October 1 military parade? Color me gobsmacked. If China’s rise to martial eminence has shown one thing, it’s that PLA commanders and their political overseers delight in surprising and trolling Western observers. They excel at developing new hardware in secret, then springing it on the world and watching the ensuing gabfest consume the China-watching community.

And sure enough, launchers bearing “DF-17” and “DF-100” missiles—weapons both supposedly capable of superfast speeds yet hitherto unknown to outsiders—rumbled through Tiananmen Square to help commemorate the seventieth anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. (The DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile also made its public debut on October 1, but Westerners have known about that one for some time.) Alternatively, foreign intelligence services knew about these “birds” but opted not to disclose it in open sources for fear of revealing how they came by the information.

Restraint and the Rise of China

By Peter Harris

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Two big ideas threaten to overturn decades of conventional wisdom about how U.S. power should be used overseas. The first idea is a general admonition that the United States should give up its role as guardian of the liberal international order and adopt a more circumscribed grand strategy of restraint. The second is an emerging consensus that America’s leaders should reverse the trend toward economic integration with China and should instead implement a policy of economic, political, and military containment of Beijing’s growing geopolitical clout. Each idea seems to be gaining traction with elected officials in both parties. The only problem is that the ideas might be incompatible.

Calls for restraint

The argument that the United States should severely curtail its overseas commitments is gathering steam in America’s foreign-policy community. It is easy to see why. After 9/11, the United States began a significant program of military interventionism meant to stamp out foreign threats to U.S. national security. Around 7,000 U.S. soldiers have died in those wars -- most of them in Afghanistan and Iraq, but also in warzones such as Syria, Libya, and Yemen. These wars have also cost taxpayers more than $5.9 trillion. Despite these efforts, international terrorism remains an enduring and evolving threat, raising serious doubts about whether endless warfighting has done anything to improve U.S. national security.

Is China exporting killer robots to Mideast?

By DAVE MAKICHUK

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China is exporting drones that it advertises as having lethal autonomy to the Middle East, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Tuesday.

It’s the first time that a senior Defense official has acknowledged that China is selling drones capable of taking life with little or no human oversight, according to a report by Patrick Tucker at Defense One.

“As we speak, the Chinese government is already exporting some of its most advanced military aerial drones to the Middle East, as it prepares to export its next-generation stealth UAVs when those come online,” Esper said at the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence conference in Washington, D.C.

“In addition, Chinese weapons manufacturers are selling drones advertised as capable of full autonomy, including the ability to conduct lethal targeted strikes.”

The Islamic State’s Next Wave

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Bob Schieffer: I'm Bob Schieffer.

Andrew Schwartz: And I'm Andrew Schwartz of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. And this is The Truth of the Matter.

Bob Schieffer: This is a podcast where we break down the policy issues of the day. Since the politicians are having their say, we will excuse them with respect and bring in the experts, many of them from the CSIS, people who have been working these issues for years.

Andrew Schwartz: No spin, no bombast, no finger pointing, just informed discussion.

Bob Schieffer: To get the truth of the matter on the US raid targeting ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, We'll talk with Seth Jones. He holds the Harold Brown Chair, and is Director of the Transnational Threats Project, and is a Senior Advisor to the International Security Program at The Center For Strategic and International Studies. Prior to CSIS, he served as Representative for the Commander U.S. Special Operations Command to the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations.

Bob Schieffer: Thank you, Seth for joining us here on The Truth of the Matter. We're going to start something on this broadcast today called check back. As I was thinking about putting this broadcast together, we are so overwhelmed with news now something big happens, we report on that, and then before we can continue the reporting, let alone the analysis on that, something else happens which washes that away. So, what we're going to do from time to time is check back.

Al-Qaeda Likely to Exploit Baghdadi’s Death

Brian M. Perkins

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The death of Islamic State (IS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is being hailed as a victory by al-Qaeda, which stands to benefit significantly from his death. While Baghdadi’s death is unlikely to see the collapse of IS—the group has already appointed Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi as its new leader—it could see some IS fighters defect or IS affiliates reconcile with their al-Qaeda counterparts (Aljazeera, November 1).

The coming months will likely see some notable changes within the IS organization as its new leader works to take the reins and assert himself as the rightful heir. At a base level, IS’ rank and file is not too dissimilar from that of al-Qaeda and its affiliates. One of the chief reasons for the fierce rivalry between al-Qaeda and IS was the public disdain between Baghdadi and al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, as well as the former’s claim to be a direct descendant of the Prophet Mohamed. However, this rivalry could cool as a new crop of IS leaders steps up.

Little is known about Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi but it is clear there will be a decision to be made on whether to hold tight to Baghdadi’s strategies or to pivot in a new direction. Al-Qaeda has already been working behind the scenes to draw the remnants of IS in northern Syria into its fold. Numerous al-Qaeda-linked ideologues have released statements regarding Baghdadi’s death and calling for his followers to return to the “righteous” path (Alaraby,October 29). Although core al-Qaeda has yet to release a statement on Baghdadi’s death, it is likely only a matter of time before Zawahiri remarks on the occasion and attempts to seize the opportunity it presents.

Protests in Iraq Represent a Significant Challenge to Shia Militias

By: Rafid Jaboori

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Dozens have been killed and hundreds injured in the ongoing wave of street protests in Baghdad and the predominantly Shia provinces of southern Iraq. Protesters are demanding jobs, reform, and a real shake-up of the political system. The political ruling class is undoubtedly unsettled by the nature and identity of the leaderless—yet energetic—protest movement (Aljazeera, October 24).

At the center of the predominantly Shia protesters’ anger is the Iran-backed Shia militias. Several bloody clashes have occurred as protesters attacked local branches of the militias and other Shia parties in predominantly Shia cities in southern Iraq. Militiamen were accused of being heavily involved in the shooting of protesters in Baghdad. This wave of protests represents the most daring and serious challenge to not only the powerful Iranian-backed Shia militias in Iraq, but to the whole Iranian domination of Iraqi politics since 2003. In post-Saddam Hussein Iraq, the political system has centered on the sharing of senior positions and resources among the three main sectarian factions—Shias, Sunnis, and Kurds. Shia parties allied with Iran, however, received the lion’s share. Iran also has historic influence over the Kurdish parties, and more recently some Sunni groups. The protests demand an overhaul to the whole political system, which would likely destabilize the power sharing arrangements that benefit Iran’s interests.

Against Iran

Iran has 'military advantage over US and allies in Middle East'

Patrick Wintour 

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Iran now has an effective military advantage over the US and its allies in the Middle East because of its ability to wage war using third parties such as Shia militias and insurgents, according to a military thinktank.

In one of the most detailed assessments of Iran’s strategy and doctrine across Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) concludes Iran’s “third party capability” has become Tehran’s weapon of choice.

The 16-month IISS study called Iran’s Networks of Influence claims these networks are more important to Iranian power than either its ballistic missile program, putative nuclear plans or its conventional military forces.

Overall, conventional military balance is still in favour of the US and its allies in the region, the report concludes, but the balance of effective force is now in Iran’s favour.

Can Policy Catch Up to the Golden Age of Terrorism Research?

Leanne Erdberg and Fouad Pervez

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When you ask a terrorist why they joined an extremist organization, or study the dozens of reasons why they leave them, it is striking how complex the many paths are toward violent extremism. Indeed, terrorist movements can even “evolve in and out of extremism over time.” Contrast this complexity with government policies with simple assumptions that focus too heavily on security and threats, resulting in trillions of dollars spent and thousands of lives lost to counter terrorism and extremism, with no strategic success.

Meanwhile, researchers are increasingly understanding the dynamics that drive people to join terrorist groups—unpacking the numerous, complex reasons, and shining light on the local sociopolitical dynamics, something the media is covering more regularly. This new wave of research has a multiplicity of focus areas and employs rigorous methods to offer workable insights on violent extremism. It’s time for policy to catch up to the research.

Among research that could help policymakers, scholars have studied brain patterns of backers of violent extremist organizations, and uncovered the importance of social networks in shaping their support for violent extremism. These findings help explain why messages are of little use to change someone’s mind about violent extremism—and instead, efforts must appeal to their emotions and their perceptions of how they are seen by others.

5 Things to Watch in Tracking the Future of ISIS

Robin Simcox 

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Robin Simcox is the Margaret Thatcher Fellow at The Heritage Foundation.

Almost as soon as it became clear that ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was dead, the revisionism began about whether this was actually a good thing.

Some analysts predicted that al-Baghdadi’s death as a “martyr” would inspire others, becoming a “propaganda bonanza” for the Islamic State, also known as ISIS.

We should not be so gloomy. The death of such a sadistic killer and serial rapist is unambiguously good news.

It was also the last thing that ISIS needed. Caliphate relinquished, the group’s operations inevitably will be disrupted by the death of its emir, especially with Abu Hassan al-Muhajir—a potential successor—killed in a U.S. airstrike just hours later.

The demand for socialism is on the rise from young Americans today. But is socialism even morally sound? Find out more now >>

Can Policy Catch Up to the Golden Age of Terrorism Research?

Leanne Erdberg and Fouad Pervez 

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When you ask a terrorist why they joined an extremist organization, or study the dozens of reasons why they leave them, it is striking how complex the many paths are toward violent extremism. Indeed, terrorist movements can even “evolve in and out of extremism over time.” Contrast this complexity with government policies with simple assumptions that focus too heavily on security and threats, resulting in trillions of dollars spent and thousands of lives lost to counter terrorism and extremism, with no strategic success.

Meanwhile, researchers are increasingly understanding the dynamics that drive people to join terrorist groups—unpacking the numerous, complex reasons, and shining light on the local sociopolitical dynamics, something the media is covering more regularly. This new wave of research has a multiplicity of focus areas and employs rigorous methods to offer workable insights on violent extremism. It’s time for policy to catch up to the research.

Among research that could help policymakers, scholars have studied brain patterns of backers of violent extremist organizations, and uncovered the importance of social networks in shaping their support for violent extremism. These findings help explain why messages are of little use to change someone’s mind about violent extremism—and instead, efforts must appeal to their emotions and their perceptions of how they are seen by others.

It’s not just Britain that’s breaking up, Europe is too

Martin Kettle

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Arguably the most surreal event during the general election campaign is scheduled for the week before polling day. On 3 December, Nato leaders, including Donald Trump and Boris Johnson, will gather at a Buckingham Palace reception. The next day, the Nato chiefs will meet in a luxury – but thankfully non-Trump-owned – hotel outside Watford. It’s the event where the leaders will discuss big subjects including Syria, Afghanistan, Russia and military burden-sharing – and where none of these big subjects is likely to be solved.

In the not so distant past, a leader fighting an election might have seen an international summit they were hosting as a golden opportunity. The grandeur and importance of such a gathering would mean free publicity from the campaign gods, reminding voters that the incumbent is someone who bestrides the world stage, has the ear of powerful allies, and is at ease with the deepest responsibilities of office. As a prime minister milked the occasion, opponents could only grind their teeth in frustration. 

Brexit should be seen as another symptom of this wider fragmentation rather than simply as an insular psychodrama for Britain

Russia Has Had Big Success Targeting NATO's Biggest Weakness

by Mark Episkopos
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The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has accused Russia of jamming GPS signals during its recent military exercise in Norway.

According to NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu, “Norway has determined that Russia was responsible for jamming GPS signals in the Kola Peninsula during Exercise Trident Juncture. Finland has expressed concern over possible jamming in Lapland.”

The Norwegian Government says that the jamming came from the Kola Peninsula, located in Russia’s Murmansk province. This comes on the heels of a similar accusation from Norway during Russia’s 2017 “Zapad” military exercise.

These charges mark yet another episode in the longstanding NATO-Russian competition for the Arctic. The militarization of the Arctic has been well-covered over the past decade. Less known, but no less crucial for the future of the region, is the Russian effort to develop and proliferate its own satellite navigation system as a counterweight to the Global Positioning System (GPS).

Russian Snipers, Missiles and Warplanes Try to Tilt Libyan War

By David D. Kirkpatrick
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TRIPOLI, Libya — The casualties at the Aziziya field hospital south of Tripoli used to arrive with gaping wounds and shattered limbs, victims of the haphazard artillery fire that has defined battles among Libyan militias. But now medics say they are seeing something new: narrow holes in a head or a torso left by bullets that kill instantly and never exit the body.

It is the work, Libyan fighters say, of Russian mercenaries, including skilled snipers. The lack of an exit wound is a signature of the ammunition used by the same Russian mercenaries elsewhere.

The snipers are among about 200 Russian fighters who have arrived in Libya in the last six weeks, part of a broad campaign by the Kremlin to reassert its influence across the Middle East and Africa.

Trump OKs wider Syria oil mission, raising legal questions

By LOLITA C. BALDOR
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U.S. military convoy drives the he town of Qamishli, north Syria, by a poster showing Syrain President Bashar Aassad Saturday, Oct. 26. 2019. A U.S. convoy of over a dozen vehicles was spotted driving south of the northeastern city of Qamishli, likely heading to the oil-rich Deir el-Zour area where there are oil fields, or possibly to another base nearby. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a war monitor, also reported the convoy, saying it arrived earlier from Iraq. (AP Photo/Baderkhan Ahmad)

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump has approved an expanded military mission to secure an expanse of oil fields across eastern Syria, raising a number of difficult legal questions about whether U.S. troops can launch strikes against Syrian, Russian or other forces if they threaten the oil, U.S. officials said.

The decision, coming after a meeting Friday between Trump and his defense leaders, locks hundreds of U.S. troops into a more complicated presence in Syria, despite the president’s vow to get America out of the war. Under the new plan, troops would protect a large swath of land controlled by Syrian Kurdish fighters that stretches nearly 90 miles (150 kilometers) from Deir el-Zour to al-Hassakeh, but its exact size is still being determined.

Blood Gold in the Brazilian Rain Forest

By Jon Lee Anderson

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One day in 2014, Belém, a member of Brazil’s Kayapo tribe, went deep into the forest to hunt macaws and parrots. He was helping to prepare for a coming-of-age ceremony, in which young men are given adult names and have their lips pierced. By custom, initiates wear headdresses adorned with tail feathers. Belém, whose Kayapo name is Takaktyx, an honorific form of the word “strong,” was a designated bird hunter.

Far from his home village of Turedjam, Belém ran across a group of white outsiders. They were garimpeiros, gold prospectors, who were working inside the Kayapo reserve—a twenty-six-million-acre Amazonian wilderness, demarcated for indigenous people. Gold mining is illegal there, but the prospectors were accompanied by a Kayapo man, so Belém assumed that some arrangement had been made. About nine thousand Kayapo lived in the forest, split into several groups; each had its own chief, and the chiefs tended to do as they pleased.

IMF Warns Europe to Make Emergency Plan for Economic Slump

By Nikos Chrysoloras and Birgit Jennen

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Germany stuck to its stance that Europe’s economic engine will pull through its current trough without a spending jolt, countering increasingly dire warnings from the International Monetary Fund.

Europe needs to come up with emergency plans, since monetary policy has all but exhausted its arsenal and risks spread, the fund warned.

“Given elevated downside risks, contingency plans should be at the ready for implementation,” the IMF said in its Regional Economic Outlook for Europe. “A synchronized fiscal response” may be necessary, the fund said in the report, highlighting the dangers from trade protectionism, a chaotic Brexit and geopolitics.

The stark warning comes after the latest data showed that the euro-area economy is proving more resilient than anticipated, driven by robust expansion in countries such as France. Still, Germany probably went into a technical recession during the last quarter, and the labor market in the continent’s biggest economy started to deteriorate.

Germany shrugged off those concerns, with Finance Minister Olaf Scholz saying there’s no immediate need for a fiscal stimulus package to pump up the country’s stalled growth machine.

Why Would Arab Leaders Pursue Strategic Partnerships With Russia?

by Amir Asmar
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Amir Asmar is a Department of Defense analyst and CFR’s national intelligence fellow. Throughout his intelligence career, his primary area of focus has been the Middle East. He held a wide range of analytic, senior analytic, and leadership positions for the Department of the Army, the Defense Intelligence Agency, and the National Intelligence Council. The statements of fact, opinion, or analysis expressed in this blog post are strictly those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense (DoD) or the U.S. government. Review of the material does not imply DoD or U.S. government endorsement of factual accuracy or opinion.

With its 2015 intervention in Syria’s civil war, Russia re-entered the fray in the Middle East for the first time since the end of the Cold War—and in a spectacular fashion. Now, with its recent departure from Syria, the United States is seemingly ceding that theater to Russian influence. While much has been written about Russia’s motives in the region, little focus has been given to the motivations of Arab leaders who are pursuing closer ties with Russia and may consider, at some future point, a strategic realignment away from the United States. Although long-standing irritants have not, by themselves, been relationship breakers, recent U.S. actions have troubled Arab leaders and created openings that Moscow can exploit. In an era of renewed great power competition, Arab leaders likely understand that they may stand to benefit more from cultivating ties with both the United States and Russia than was previously possible.

The Three ‘Faces’ of Russia’s AI Strategy

By: Sergey Sukhankin

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On October 11, Russian President Vladimir Putin approved the “National Strategy for the Development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) for the Period Until 2030.” The documents calls for “accelerated development of AI,” including an emphasis on “research, availability of information and computing resources for users” as well as improving “training in this area” (TASS, October 11). Although Russia is not presently considered a global leader in the realm of AI (see EDM, March 13), it does arguably possess a national base of knowledge and domestic expertise on which the government could draw on and achieve more impressive results.

Historically, the first major research into artificial intelligence was initiated in the Soviet Union in 1954 (under the roof of the Moscow State University) as an interdisciplinary initiative, assembling prominent Soviet physiologists, linguists, psychologists and mathematicians. In 1988, the Association of Artificial Intelligence (AAI) was inaugurated and brought together 300 Soviet researchers (Vuzlit.ru, accessed October 31). Nonetheless—similar to some other technological novelties of the time, including the Internet—the Soviet authorities failed to fully comprehend the future potential of AI, and both state interest and funding flagged. A similar trend continued after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. Only in recent years has there been a visible shift in the Russian state’s approach to the issue. Assessing Moscow’s current policies in this domain, it is possible to ascertain three main areas where the development of AI (and related technologies) could serve the country’s strategic objectives.

Trump OKs wider Syria oil mission, raising legal questions

By LOLITA C. BALDOR

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U.S. military convoy drives the he town of Qamishli, north Syria, by a poster showing Syrain President Bashar Aassad Saturday, Oct. 26. 2019. A U.S. convoy of over a dozen vehicles was spotted driving south of the northeastern city of Qamishli, likely heading to the oil-rich Deir el-Zour area where there are oil fields, or possibly to another base nearby. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a war monitor, also reported the convoy, saying it arrived earlier from Iraq. (AP Photo/Baderkhan Ahmad)

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump has approved an expanded military mission to secure an expanse of oil fields across eastern Syria, raising a number of difficult legal questions about whether U.S. troops can launch strikes against Syrian, Russian or other forces if they threaten the oil, U.S. officials said.

The decision, coming after a meeting Friday between Trump and his defense leaders, locks hundreds of U.S. troops into a more complicated presence in Syria, despite the president’s vow to get America out of the war. Under the new plan, troops would protect a large swath of land controlled by Syrian Kurdish fighters that stretches nearly 90 miles (150 kilometers) from Deir el-Zour to al-Hassakeh, but its exact size is still being determined.

Effective Competitive Advantage: Strategy, Technology and Information

Thomas A. Drohan
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In 1983, Project Socrates began as an initiative within the Reagan administration to develop technology-driven competitive advantage. By 1990, the effort had been canceled by the Bush-41 administration because it looked like industrial policy. In fact Project Socrates was not an industrial policy but rather an information-age long-term strategy for technology-based planning. Physicist Michael Sekora, the founder of Project Socrates, resigned after political appointees blocked his work. As pointed out by Stefan Banuch in Small Wars Journal and by Bonnie Gerard in The Diplomat, the change instituted a policy of finance-based planning. 

In 2019, we are immersed in competitions that require persistent advantages to prevail against long-view opponents. Victory is relative and temporary, and our operations need to be influential lest they become irrelevant. This strategic challenge is acute in complex warfare, where operations are waged across domains (land, sea, air, space, cyber, electro-magnetic) using diverse means (diplomatic, informational, military, economic, social—DIMES) to produce synergistic effects (preventive and causative, psychological and physical, cooperative and confrontational).

To win such wars, we need competitive advantages translated into strategic effects. That is, more than tactical victories. How can we create effective competitive advantage?

BREAKING: National Security Commission on AI Releases Interim Report

By Yasmin Tadjdeh

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A much-anticipated interim report from the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence — which was tasked by Congress to research ways to advance the development of AI for national security and defense purposes — was released Nov. 4.

“How the U.S. adopts AI will have profound ramifications for our economic well-being and position in the world,” Eric Schmidt, the chairman of the commission and the former head of Google’s parent company Alphabet, said during a meeting with reporters in Arlington, Virginia, to discuss the findings. “We've got to get this right. It's not optional.”

The commission — which released its initial report to Congress in late July — identified five fundamental lines of effort to preserve U.S. advantages in artificial intelligence. They include: invest in research and development; apply the technology to national security missions; train and recruit AI talent; protect and build upon U.S. technology advantages; and marshal global cooperation on artificial intelligence issues.

Vice Chairman Robert O. Work, a former deputy secretary of defense who served in the Obama administration, said the release of the interim report marks the end of the commission’s first analytical phase.

NATO’s Response to Hybrid Threats

By Michael Rühle

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The views expressed are the author’s own.

Russia’s annexation of Crimea in March 2014 was the greatest challenge for the post-Cold War European security architecture. After two decades of focusing on crisis operations abroad, NATO was forced to return to its original core task of collective defense, manifested, inter alia, in the rotational deployment of troops in the Alliance’s East. However, Russia’s approach in Ukraine also revealed that NATO needed to do more than enhancing its military posture. NATO also had to deal with the phenomenon of “hybrid warfare” – a type of warfare that combines overt and covert military and non-military means, and thus creates ambiguity that could severely complicate a unified response.

The concept of “hybrid warfare” is not new. What is new, however, is the seamless orchestration of military and non-military tools, as was demonstrated in Ukraine: Russia built up an impressive military threat close to Ukraine’s borders, deployed paramilitary units, launched cyberattacks against Ukrainian infrastructure, interrupted gas supplies, and supported the East Ukrainian separatists with military equipment. This was accompanied by a massive disinformation campaign intended to create the impression that Moscow had nothing to do with the events on the ground.

As Twitter earnings fall, users exit platform

By SAIKAT DATTA

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Hundreds of Twitter users started a mass exodus from the social media platform on a day when its third-quarter earnings revealed a major fall in revenues.

The impact of lower revenues led to a sharp 20% fall in share prices, as company officials struggled to explain what had gone wrong.

But the bad news for the social media platform did not end. In India, which hosts a large number of its users, people were beginning to sign off. It started with Twitter banning a prominent lawyer and designated senior advocate Sanjay Hegde from the platform.

He was banned because he had posted an iconic anti-Nazi image as his banner picture above his profile on the microblogging site.

Twitter’s filters failed to distinguish the image from the usual Nazi images and sent him a notice that he was in violation of the platform’s community standards.

In first, America co-hosts cyber war game ‘CODE’ with Taiwan

By: Mike Yeo  

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MELBOURNE, Australia — Taiwan and the United States are co-hosting a weeklong, multinational cybersecurity exercise on the east Asian island as it seeks to bolster its cybersecurity in the face of increasing cyberattacks.

This year’s exercise, which is held once every two years since the inaugural event in 2013, is noteworthy, as it is the first time the United States is co-hosting the event and is also the first time it includes the participation of personnel from several other countries.

Known as the Cyber Offensive and Defensive Exercise, or CODE, red (adversarial) teams from Australia, the Czech Republic, Indonesia, Japan and Malaysia will join the co-hosts in simulated attacks on the Taiwan’s public and private cyber infrastructure.

Six other nations are observing the exercise, according to a report from the United Kingdom’s Financial Times newspaper.

Moscow’s Advances in Modernizing Military Communications

By: Roger McDermott

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Moscow is making considerable advances in modernizing its conventional Armed Forces within its overarching aim of adopting “command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance” (C4ISR) capability. This, in turn, is also predicated on developing the capacity to conduct network-enabled operations and enhancing the speed of command and control (see EDM, September 25). A critical factor is the modernization of military communications systems. In this area, recent developments in the defense industry and testing in operations in Syria and strategic level exercises is aiding this complex process. This fall’s strategic command-staff exercise (strategicheskiye komandno-shtabnyye ucheniya—SKShU), Tsentr 2019, tested advanced communications systems currently entering units in the Armed Forces in increased numbers (see EDM, October 2). Among these examples of modern communications technology is the R-187P1E Azart mobile radio-communications system, which forms part of a varied and unified approach to adopting C4ISR capabilities within the Russian military (VPK, October 29).

The Azart is designed to provide secure communications at tactical levels, even when the adversary uses electronic countermeasures. Moreover, it can be tuned to most frequency bands, including cellular networks, and offers data transfer using the GLONASS satellite navigation system. It conducts data transfer at speeds of up to 7.2 kilobits per second. Reportedly, it has a number of advantages over the systems it will replace (Arms-expo.ru, June 19). These include, portability, a user-friendly interface, multifunctionality, and working in repeater mode, with the ability to determine and transmit the coordinates of the location of its users. According to Colonel General Khalil Arslanov, the head of the Main Directorate of Communications of Russia’s Armed Forces, “This radio station has been adopted to supply troops and is a radio of a fundamentally new generation. A unique technical solution is the pseudo-random tuning of the operating frequency with a speed of up to 20,000 jumps per second. In this mode, any possibility of technical communication suppression or signal interception is excluded, which ensures a high security of the transmitted information and stability of the communication system” (Vm.ru, August 20).

The World's Most Powerful Navies Of 2030 Won't Look Like Those Of Today

by Kyle Mizokami
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The most powerful navies in 2030 will be a reflection of the broader state of the world. Some countries are invested in preserving the current international order, and see naval power as a means to maintain it. Other emerging countries are building navies commensurate with their newfound sense of status, often with an eye towards challenging that order.

The eastward shift in naval power will continue in 2030, a product of both declining defense budgets in Europe and growing economies in Asia. While the most powerful navies of the Cold War were concentrated largely in Europe, by 2030 both China and India will be on the list, with Japan and South Korea as runners-up also fielding large, modern naval forces.

Ship-wise, there are two classes that will define the most powerful navies: aircraft carriers and ballistic missile submarines. Aircraft carriers reflect the need to maintain a global, or even regional, power-projection capability. Ballistic-missile submarines reflect a maturation and diversification of a country’s nuclear arsenal, with an eye toward maintaining a second-strike capability in case of surprise attack. More than any other type, those two will define naval power in the early-to-mid twenty-first century.

The United States

The Two Things Every Senior Pentagon Leader Is Worried About

BY MACKENZIE EAGLENRESIDENT 
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Their top concerns don’t include the Mexican border, Iran, or even Syria.

Talk to any senior Pentagon official these days and they’ll raise two big issues. Not Iran, not the border wall, not impeachment — not even the chaotic Syria withdrawal and the still-unclear oil-guarding mission are of such universal concern. 

The first is the fact that defense spending has peaked. This has been advertised for years, and the moment has arrived. But leaders’ concern is exacerbated by the potential for a government-wide spending freeze, possibly even through next year’s presidential election. The Pentagon is so worried about a long-term continuing resolution that when Defense Secretary Mark Esper went to Capitol Hill on Oct. 30 to brief lawmakers behind closed doors on the Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi raid, several DoD senior officials told me, he spent much of his time pleading for a 2020 appropriations bill.

Many members of Congress already understand how continuing resolutions undermine military readiness and waste vast amounts of money. Yet they lack insights, based on real-world evidence and Pentagon data, about the many benefits that funding the defense budget on time, as happened last year, provides to taxpayers and the military. If the Pentagon really wants to get its appropriations bill past the border wall impasse and impeachment overhang, lawmakers need to see compelling new information from the Defense Department that shows how doing their job well helps everyone and saves money.