Tim Gosling
Over the long term, it seems likely that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will prove a fundamental point of change for post-Cold War Europe. It’s abundantly clear that the short-term effects of the war dictated Europe’s direction in 2022, and will continue to do so throughout 2023.
The Czech Republic and its regional neighbours will feel the economic and political chaos emanating from the east in concentrated form as they try to adapt to this new reality. Even should the conflict end, which looks highly unlikely as 2023 begins, the spill-over will haunt the region for years to come.
The energy crisis will continue to have a significant impact. The Czech Republic has been scrambling to source alternative energy supplies to replace its heavy dependence on Russian oil and gas. It’s a struggle that’s far from over.
Despite appearing to have averted disaster this winter, the country will likely face a similar energy crunch in the winter of 2023-24, expects Matt Sherwood at the Economist Intelligence Unit. A landlocked Czech Republic doesn’t have the option of copying the likes of Germany and Poland in building new liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure, while “plans to increase reliance on nuclear power will take many years to come to fruition,” the commodities analyst tells BIRN.
That suggests inflation will continue to stalk the economy. Prices were already rising sharply as Czechia emerged from COVID-19, and the consumer price index has remained in double figures throughout 2022.
Some inflation slowdown is expected over the coming year, but the rise in prices is still denting the value of wages and crimping spending and investment. With markets across Europe suffering similar conditions, Czechia’s large industrial sector faces falling demand for its exports.
Hence, Czechia is expected to tip back into recession just 18 months after escaping the pandemic-driven downturn.
“We forecast that the Czech Republic will experience a recession as the economy continues to contract over the winter months amid the European energy crunch,” says Sherwood. “Even when the crunch eases over the spring and summer, we do not expect a strong rebound in 2023… [but for] output to contract on average across the whole year.”
Jekyll and Hyde
Inflation and recession are, of course, the stuff of nightmares for vulnerable sections of society. However, Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s centre-right coalition government will likely remain unenthusiastic about offering too much help.
“It’s a big challenge for this government to deal with these issues given its fiscal conservatism,” points out Otto Eibl, who heads the Political Science Department at Masaryk University.
Still, large demonstrations held in the autumn pushed the government into offering a little help – in the form of an energy cap – so it’s a decent bet that more protests will punctuate 2023.
Extremists and populists have piggybacked on these economic fears by adding nativist, pro-Russian and anti-EU/NATO agendas to the protests – there’s little reason to expect that to change. “Lots of people are unhappy with the current situation, and there are political forces taking advantage,” says Eibl.
This cohort will remain active in the coming year. With help from the populist opposition parties ANO and SPD, they’ve been trying to weaponize the fact that Czechia is hosting 400,000 or so Ukrainian refugees, and they’re keenly aware of the potential for another influx as Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy and water infrastructure threaten a long, cold, hard winter.
However, the vast majority (73 per cent) of Czechs remain resolute, and overwhelmingly support sending weapons and aid to Ukraine and hosting refugees. “The widespread support for Ukraine won’t change,” Eibl adds. “Mainstream voters believe it’s important to oppose Russia’s aggression, and they see little alternative to the coalition parties.”
That has some comparing the government’s tenure to a reign by Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde. “As exemplary as the government’s foreign policy is,” wrote columnist Martin Caban for liberal outlet Seznam Zpravy, “its budget policy is appalling.”
Charged election
This increase in political polarisation stemming from the war and the economic downturn is likely to continue in 2023. And the major test for these competing forces will come at the very start of the year as Czechs go to the polls to elect a successor to President Milos Zeman.
The presidential vote is customarily a highly charged affair. Zeman won the past two by stirring up various controversies, such as supporting Russia and China, and lashing out at Roma, women and LGBT people, among other populist targets.
This election will be no exception. Pitching populist former prime minister Andrej Babis, a provocative political operator at the best of times, against liberal democratic rivals.
“The presidential post has a lot of symbolism for Czechs,” notes political analyst Jiri Pehe, predicting a divisive race.
Babis faces an uphill battle according to the polls. That suggests the billionaire will seek to whip up further anger against his opponents and the government’s democratic agenda, and it’s plausible that Prague will also see more openly political protests in the coming year, on top of the economically driven events.
There are no other major political events for the populist and extremist cohort to latch onto after January. But democratic institutions such as public media have been targeted in recent months and are likely to bear the brunt again in 2023, especially as the government finally moves forward on its promises to shore up the independence of Ceska televise (Czech TV) and Cesky rozhlas (Czech Radio).
“In Communist times, public media was a pillar of the authorities,” states David Smoljak, who heads the Senate’s media committee. “Today, media is a pillar of democracy – and that’s why extremists hate it so much.”
Escaping post-Communism?
But the new year also offers some fresh hope for a country whose democratic instincts have long been suppressed by the populist post-Communist egos of figures like Zeman and his predecessor Vaclav Klaus.
The departure of the meddlesome Zeman, who has spent the last eight years scheming to push foreign policy eastwards, should give Fiala a clear run to cement his government’s efforts to re-establish Czechia’s pro-Western credentials.
And at the same time, assuming the new occupant of Prague Castle hails from the same democratic side of the fence, the prime minister will face greater scrutiny of the powerful illiberal faction of his right-wing ODS party, which still reveres party founder Klaus.
“The West would like to see Fiala more clearly distance himself from [Hungary’s Viktor] Orban. His continued close contact has raised some eyebrows,” says one senior Western European diplomat.
However, Eibl insists that viewed from within Czechia, it’s clear that Prague is on a different trajectory to both Hungary and Poland – the illiberal and Eurosceptic half of the Visegrad Group of Central European countries.
“There’s a question whether it will make sense to talk about the V4 in 2023 at all,” he speculates. “We’re neighbours and share the same Central European space. But, politically, all of these states are not the same.”
No comments:
Post a Comment