Daniel Watson
In recent months, concerns about the viability of South Sudan’s transitional government have soared, following the dismissal of numerous powerful military and security elites and the arrest in March of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army–In Opposition’s (SPLM/A–IO) leader, Riek Machar. These events were precipitated by brewing tensions within the ruling regime of President Salva Kiir – including the removal of its powerful spy chief last October, which sparked clashes in the capital, Juba – as well as intensifying conflict between the government and its partner in peace, the SPLM/A–IO, especially in Upper Nile state (see Map 1). Provisions of the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) are being unpicked, while the SPLM/A–IO is fragmenting. Although South Sudan is no stranger to crisis, the severity of the current situation raises doubts about the longevity of a regime previously thought capable of withstanding intensive instability. Fears that the war in neighbouring Sudan is seeping into South Sudan via Upper Nile are also mounting.
The making of a military stateWhen South Sudan gained independence in 2011, the country that emerged had suffered two grinding civil wars (from 1955–72 and 1983–2005) and carried with it the resulting scars of immense suffering and societal upheaval. Several insidious problems had also gestated in these periods, and cast long shadows over the new state. These included a dangerously enlarged military sector, stretched unevenly across the country. After 2005, oil revenues facilitated the rapid growth of the military, which absorbed militias and rebel factions, becoming more fragmented in the process.
No comments:
Post a Comment