Keikichi Takahashi
Mark Twain allegedly said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” Each historical event has its own features, so there is no perfect historical analogy. Conversely, though, there is rarely an entirely new event, too. Similar events or similar patterns can usually be found in the past. The ongoing Russo–Ukrainian War is not exceptional. It has, for example, some striking parallels to the Sino–Japanese War of 1937-1945.
The first similarity is that the war initiator tragically underestimated its target’s war potential. According to the testimony of CIA Director Bill Burns at the House Intelligence Committee hearing on March 8, Russian President Vladimir Putin had expected a quick victory over Ukraine, planning to seize Kiev within the first two days of the campaign. Similarly, when Japan started the war with China in 1937, few top government officials in Tokyo foresaw the long haul. The United States Strategic Bombing Survey, organized in 1944 to investigate the effects of strategic bombings, correctly pointed out in a 1946 report that the Japanese thrust into China in 1937 “was not expected to develop into a major war. Those responsible for national policy at the time were fully confident that the Chinese government would yield quickly to Japan’s demands and adjust itself readily to the position of a Japanese puppet.”
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