Pavel K. Baev
Talks in Istanbul between Russia and Ukraine on May 16 occurred under low expectations, resulting in high diplomatic posturing despite the discussions resulting in minimal progress
Western leaders have pushed for a ceasefire, prompting renewed engagement from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is trying to exploit Western divisions while resisting substantive compromise in peace discussions.
Putin is clinging to war ambitions and illusionary strength despite Russia’s economic strain and diminishing leverage. He rejects realistic peace plans, leaving him unprepared for future high-stakes negotiations.
The direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on Friday, May 16, took place in an odd atmosphere of low expectations and high excitement. The talks predictably yielded little, while possibly altering the complex political maneuvering around Russia’s deadlocked war against Ukraine quite significantly. Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to present these talks simultaneously as a new initiative and as a continuation of the negotiations in spring 2022, which were broken at the stage of provisional drafts (see EDM, March 17, 22, 2022). The Russian delegation included the same third-level officials led by Putin’s aide, Vladimir Medinsky, but a new mandate was issued after a meeting in the Kremlin late evening on May 14 of all top officials and even the commanders of military groupings in the theater of war (President of Russia, May 14; Rossiiskaya gazeta, May 15). Neither the old format nor the new content has delivered the desired result, primarily because the war has evolved far from the failed blitzkrieg aimed at capturing Kyiv, while Putin’s ambition for subjugating Ukraine persists.
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