Of the various agreements signed during President Macron’s state visit to London, the Prime Minister has been inclined to stress the one on the return of migrants, as that is the one most likely to help with his immediate domestic political problems. Because of this less attention has been given to the agreement on nuclear cooperation, despite the two leaders describing it as ‘historic’. The Northwood Declaration, as it is now known, stated that:
‘Our nuclear weapons exist to deter the most extreme threats to the security of our nations and our vital interests. Our nuclear forces are independent, but can be coordinated and contribute significantly to the overall security of the Alliance, and to the peace and stability of the Euro Atlantic area.
‘As we have explicitly stated since 1995, we do not see situations arising in which the vital interests of either France or the United Kingdom could be threatened without the vital interest of the other also being threatened. France and the United Kingdom agree that there is no extreme threat to Europe that would not prompt a response by our two nations.
‘France and the United Kingdom have therefore decided to deepen their nuclear cooperation and coordination. A UK-France Nuclear Steering Group will be established to provide political direction for this work. It will be led by the Presidency of the French Republic and the Cabinet Office and will coordinate across nuclear policy, capabilities and operations.’
Exactly what the coordination of the respective deterrents might mean in practice is less clear. It could involve optimizing the number of missile-carrying submarines (SSBNs) on patrol at any time, agreeing where to patrol, sharing intelligence on Russian anti-submarine activities, or even allocating targets. It is essentially about asserting their shared strategic interests and maximizing the deterrent effect of two forces that may improve in quality as they are modernised but are not going to get much larger.
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