Are we truly witnessing the destruction of the rules-based international order that was created, however imperfectly, in the aftermath of the unparalleled world wars and crises of the 20th century? Are we truly on the cusp of a new ‘age of strongmen’ dominated by authoritarian leaders like Trump, Putin and Xi Jinping, in which the strong impose and the bullies get what they can – and the weak suffer and concede what they must?
Unquestionably, we live in a ‘time of turning’, in which Putin relentlessly expands his war of aggression against Ukraine, Xi Jinping’s China advances its own revisionist agenda vis-à-vis Taiwan, and upheaval in the Middle East seems unstoppable.
We are also witnessing how relentlessly Trump seeks to dismantle not only liberal-constitutional government in the United States but also the postwar order whose creation America shaped so decisively. Some observers have claimed that this catapults us back to the ‘might over right’ politics of 19th-century imperialism, which set the stage for a ‘short’ 20th century of extremes. But is the world really bound for endemic disorder in which ruthless ‘mafia powers’ compete for primacy?
It is premature to draw such conclusions. Instead, the focus should be on two different and indeed crucial questions: how can we not only salvage but actually renew the core of the rule-based modern order that was first conceived after 1918 and then created after 1945? What deeper lessons can we draw from the decisive transformation and learning processes that made such advances possible?
To answer these questions, it is essential to map out a wider historical context. To be illuminated is the transformative long 20th century. In my interpretation, this century dawned roughly around 1860, when the globalisation of capitalist and imperialist competition remade the world. It ended around 2022, when its hard-won and unfinished order came to be unmade – or was renewed for the 21st century.
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