Ilan Berman
Last month's conflict between Israel and Iran has only just concluded, but its results are already being felt throughout the Middle East—and beyond.
As a result of Israel's military offensive, Iran's nuclear program has been set back substantially. And, following months of strategic drift in Gaza, the Jewish state's decisive campaign against the Islamic Republic has helped it rebuild regional deterrence. The United States, meanwhile, has finally demonstrated that it is committed to preventing Iran from going nuclear by any means necessary. The region is taking notice; for instance, prospects for an expansion of the Abraham Accords are now the brightest they have been in years.
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran on Nov. 23, 2015. ALEXEI DRUZHININ/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images
But the conflict that's already being billed by the White House as the "12-day war" is also notable for what didn't happen. Despite the dire predictions of many, Israel's campaign against Iran's nuclear program (and America's assistance to it) didn't lead either Russia or the People's Republic of China (PRC) to wade into the fray in defense of the Islamic Republic, generating a wider war.
To be sure, both Moscow and Beijing offered up the proper platitudes. Russian President Vladimir Putin decried Israel's bombing campaign, and his Foreign Ministry issued a formal statement condemning it. Officials in Beijing did much the same, with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi mounting a spirited defense of Iran's "sovereignty" in the face of Israel's "illegal" bombings.
Beyond that, however, neither Beijing nor Moscow did anything of substance. Russia did not provide Iran with key battlefield technology, such as air defense components, that could have been used to blunt the effectiveness of Israel's air campaign. Similarly, China did not roll out its prodigious electronic warfare capabilities to better protect Tehran, despite the sprawling quarter century, $400 billion strategic pact codified between the two countries back in 2021.
No comments:
Post a Comment