Leave Europe to the Europeans: The Case for a U.S. Military Drawdown

Foreign Affairs | Jennifer Kavanagh and Justin Logan

The Pentagon initiated the Europe Posture Review under Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to formally transition primary responsibility for conventional defense to European allies. Washington currently allocates roughly $100 billion annually toward European security while maintaining approximately 80,000 troops across the continent. Decades of security guarantees have fostered structural dependency among European powers despite a national debt exceeding $40 trillion.

The proposed plan outlines withdrawing the rotational combat brigade in Poland, repatriating the 2nd Cavalry Regiment from Germany, cutting tactical fighter squadrons from seven to four, and recalling three destroyers from Rota Naval Station in Spain. Congress has actively resisted force reductions by embedding minimum personnel thresholds within the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act. Fiscal limits force hard choices. A disciplined withdrawal schedule through 2027 and 2028 would compel European nations to generate organic heavy ground formations and air defenses. Meanwhile, Russia's military attrition in Ukraine provides a crucial window for Europe to assume regional deterrence.

C.I.A. Chief Delivered Bleak Assessment of Russia’s War in Secretive Moscow Visit

The New York Times  |  Adam Entous, Julian E. Barnes

C.I.A. Director John Ratcliffe made a secretive visit to Moscow on August 27, 2026, delivering an urgent, bleak assessment of Russia's war effort against Ukraine directly to F.S.B. chief Aleksandr V. Bortnikov. Ratcliffe urged the Kremlin to pursue a peace deal with Kyiv before Moscow's military and economic conditions suffer further degradation.

U.S. intelligence analysts have long questioned whether senior Kremlin advisers provide honest operational assessments to President Vladimir V. Putin regarding battlefield losses and economic vulnerabilities. He issued no direct threats during the exchange. Instead, this specialized intelligence channel operates parallel to separate communication tracks maintained by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner with Putin's senior advisory team. U.S. officials anticipate that Putin, a former KGB officer, will view direct communications from C.I.A. leadership as exceptionally credible compared to standard diplomatic messaging, ultimately pushing the Kremlin toward formal conflict resolution before battlefield positions worsen.

The Russian Arctic Threat in the Era of Geoeconomics

Geopolitical Monitor  |  Aurel Braun

Russia presents a grave, multi-dimensional threat in the Arctic through massive regional militarization, the Transarctic Transport Corridor, and deepening indirect strategic support from China. This expanding northern footprint reflects Kremlin efforts to manufacture external victories while suffering four interlocking domestic crises spanning political legitimacy, economic corrosion, identity, and pending succession.

Misjudging Moscow's actual capabilities risks either dangerous deference or strategic paranoia across Western defense planning. NATO cannot afford gradualism in restoring northern deterrence. Recent proceedings at the Ankara summit demonstrated Alliance resilience despite internal friction, underscoring the vital necessity of retaining American power within European security architecture. Frontline allies including Germany, Poland, Norway, and Finland are rapidly accelerating defense expenditures, whereas Ottawa's commitments under its "Our North, Strong and Free" policy declaration require urgent implementation. Western democracies must convert long-term target dates into immediate, operational capabilities well before 2035 to secure the high north.

Why Did John Ratcliffe Go to Moscow?

The Atlantic  |  Thomas Wright

CIA Director John Ratcliffe made an unannounced visit to Moscow aboard a C-17A transport aircraft to deliver strategic warnings against further escalation. While President Donald Trump categorised the mission as semi-routine during an interview with Glenn Beck, high-level American intelligence visits to Russia remain exceptionally rare. The previous mission occurred in November 2021 when William J.

Burns warned Moscow regarding its impending invasion of Ukraine. This latest diplomatic outreach coincides with severe Russian battlefield stagnation and heavy operational losses. High attrition rates continue to drain Russian manpower. Ukrainian long-range drone systems have systematically crippled domestic oil infrastructure while converting frontlines into lethal kill boxes. Total Russian battle deaths reached nearly half a million by May, according to GCHQ Director Anne Keast-Butler. Facing persistent conventional impasses, Kremlin strategic decision-makers may consider dangerous horizontal or asymmetric escalation options. Ratcliffe's flight underscores grave U.S. concern regarding Moscow's next strategic moves.

The Russian Arctic Threat in the Era of Geoeconomics

Geopolitical Monitor | Prof. Aurel Braun

Russia’s expanding military footprint in the Arctic and rapid development of the Transarctic Transport Corridor pose a grave, multidimensional security threat to NATO’s northern flank. Moscow’s aggressive polar posture, supported by Chinese economic and strategic backing, directly challenges Western sovereignty across critical high-latitude maritime domains. This expansion is driven by interlocking domestic crises within Russia, where political leadership relies on external aggression to sustain legitimacy.

Russian power suffers from severe structural vulnerabilities. Despite economic corrosion and demographic decline, Kremlin desperation amplifies escalation risks along polar trade routes. While frontline NATO members including Finland, Norway, and Poland are rapidly scaling up defense expenditures, Western gradualism risks undermining collective deterrence. Preserving Alliance cohesion under American superpower leadership remains essential to counter Moscow’s strategic militarization. Democratic societies must swiftly transition from long-term policy promises into immediate operational capabilities to secure the Arctic defense theater.

Jamestown Foundation

Jamestown Foundation

• China Brief, July 10, 2026, v. 26, no. 14 Beijing Tightens Control Over Outbound Investment
• Maritime Pressure Expands to Pratas and Taiping
• Xi’s Leninist Selectocracy has Cemented Party Dictatorship
• CNP Part IV: Calculation Holds Keys to Strategic Competition

Editor's Notes: October 7 shattered Israel’s old political map, next election may redraw it

The Jerusalem Post  |  Zvika Klein

Former IDF Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter launched a new Israeli political party named People of Israel, placing ultra-Orthodox conscription and accountability for the October 7 attacks at the center of his right-wing platform. The movement draws significant support from former Likud, Religious Zionist, and Otzma Yehudit voters while capturing previously undecided electors.

Israel's post-October 7 security reality has fundamentally fractured long-standing partisan categories across the domestic electorate. Previously championed by secular center-left factions, the debate over haredi draft exemptions now commands prominent advocacy from religious reserve officers and bereaved families. Polling from Lazar Research and Direct Polls highlights extreme volatility, with party projections ranging from zero to six Knesset seats ahead of candidate list filings. Winter's explicit refusal to join Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud list underscores deep political fragmentation among traditional right-wing blocs. Voters increasingly reject legacy political party structures.

Fake US thinktank set up and funded by Israel sought to game AI for propaganda

The Guardian | Jason Wilson

The Israeli government financed a covert foreign influence campaign routing tens of millions of dollars through European advertising entity Havas Media to manipulate artificial intelligence chatbot responses regarding Gaza war crimes. American contractor Piro Inc disclosed under the Foreign Agents Registration Act that it created a shell website, the Hanover Institute for Public Policy, which generated 124 reports totaling over 560,000 words between 6 and 14 August.

This digital operation deployed generative engine optimization tools from platform Res to prime commercial large language models and ingest data into repositories such as Common Crawl. Havas transferred over $24.9 million to US subcontractors. Clock Tower X received $15 million and Targeted Communications Global received $9,892,335 to execute messaging strategies. Despite these multi-million-dollar expenditures, Israeli officials privately acknowledged that the strategic public diplomacy initiative failed to reverse rapidly declining public support across the United States.

The Hybrid Battlefield: M23’s Fusion of Cyber Tactics and Territorial Control

Small Wars Journal | Paige McLachlan

The March 23 Movement (M23) in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo has evolved into a cyber-enabled insurgency, disrupting GPS signals, manipulating mineral supply-chain data, and deploying social media disinformation to secure strategic territory. By seizing coltan-rich mines in Rubaya and taking Goma, the group funnels roughly 120 tons of coltan monthly through Rwanda, corrupting blockchain-based traceability systems.

This integration of physical territorial control with digital data manipulation exposes serious vulnerabilities in global technology supply chains and degrades military air operations. Chinese firms currently dominate Congolese telecommunications infrastructure. Beijing’s expanding digital footprint reduces American visibility into illicit financial flows and heightens data manipulation risks across critical mineral markets. Although Washington brokered the Washington Accords and historical sanctions targeted conflict minerals, legacy policy tools fail to counter digitally mediated security threats. Sustained regional stability requires U.S. strategy to prioritize cyber capacity building, digital traceability resilience, and direct diplomatic accountability for regional enablers.

"That sucker is open": U.S. gains the upper hand in the battle for Hormuz

Axios | Barak Ravid

The U.S. military has secured effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, reducing Iranian targeting success to just 2 percent of transiting commercial vessels. Through a combined campaign featuring air cover, naval escort operations alongside the United Arab Emirates, targeted bombing, and extensive mine-sweeping operations, American forces successfully reopened key international shipping lanes in the main Traffic Separation Scheme.

Iranian naval forces initially sought to paralyze global energy markets by deploying sea mines under Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps orders while launching drone and cruise missile attacks. U.S. forces neutralized 11 active sea mines. Tactical success restored nightly transit volumes to between 20 and 30 tankers carrying an average of 9 to 10 million barrels of crude oil. CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper confirmed sea routes are open. This operational turnaround diminished Tehran's economic leverage, encouraging regional mediators from Oman, Pakistan, and Qatar to seek fresh diplomatic negotiations.

Scoop: U.S. close to striking "massive" deal for Venezuelan oil fields

Axios | Marc Caputo

The Trump administration is negotiating a massive energy deal with Venezuela's interim government to secure an ownership stake in oil fields containing 90 billion barrels of proven reserves. Spearheaded by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Venezuela's acting president Delcy Rodriguez, the agreement aims to double American energy holdings while revitalizing domestic infrastructure through private development.

Active conflicts in Iran and Ukraine continue to disrupt global supply lines. Global fuel reserves remain critically constrained. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is now at a 40-year low. This initiative advances President Trump’s "Donroe Doctrine," formulated prior to the Jan. 3 capture of former leader Nicolas Maduro on narco-terrorism charges. These fields form part of Venezuela's 300 billion barrels of total reserves, degraded by mismanagement since Hugo Chavez assumed power in 1999. Energy Secretary Chris Wright plans to visit Caracas next week to facilitate expanded extraction operations by commercial firms.

COVID Had Quarantines And Vaccines: A Cyber Pandemic Could Infect The Cure

Eurasia Review  |  Burak Oktenli

More than 100 technology, cybersecurity, and financial firms—including OpenAI, Microsoft, and CrowdStrike—warn that a closing "defenders' window" risks an AI-accelerated cyber crisis capable of collapsing electronic trust. Such an attack could compromise the underlying digital signatures, identity providers, and firmware roots of trust needed to verify and restore compromised critical infrastructure.

Systemic interdependencies across banking networks, industrial control systems, and defense logistics mean ordinary recovery protocols fail if update channels sitting inside the compromised boundary lack clean verification baselines. Restoring service without independent attestation reintroduces the threat. Autonomous AI defenders offer machine-speed response capability during rapid exploits, as demonstrated during DARPA's AI Cyber Challenge, but introduce dual-catastrophe risks if left unconstrained. Mitigating electronic trust collapse requires establishing isolated recovery seeds, migrating to NIST post-quantum cryptographic standards, and engineering strict authority envelopes before automated defense agents assume operational control across critical networks.

Iran’s Hidden Weapon Leaves US Exposed to Catastrophic Attack

Newsweek | Tom O'Connor

Iranian cyber forces and proxy groups like CyberAv3ngers and the Handala Hack Team are expanding asymmetric operations against critical infrastructure in the United States, targeting power grids, water networks, and data centers. Six months into the conflict between Iran and a U.S.-Israeli coalition, these digital attacks seek to inflict severe economic, psychological, and operational disruption inside the American homeland.

This multi-domain doctrine evolved following the 2009 Stuxnet operation, which spurred former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to formalize offensive capabilities under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Cybersecurity Command. Tehran now integrates digital intrusions with physical missile strikes and artificial intelligence-enhanced media campaigns. Data centers represent primary operational targets. By striking commercial enterprises like Stryker Corporation and disrupting dual-use utilities, the Iranian regime calculates it can wear down Western public resolve over time, effectively bypassing conventional defensive superiority while creating sustained systemic instability across international energy and technology markets.

Artificial intelligence and cyberwarfare

Meer | Maryem Laghdaf

Artificial intelligence algorithms are transforming digital battlefields by automating targeted cyberattacks, generating adaptive malware, and deploying deepfakes to destabilize political institutions. Automated systems now execute complex network intrusions in hours rather than weeks, exploiting structural vulnerabilities across energy grids and financial networks while evading traditional antivirus detection. Existing legal frameworks fail to govern autonomous digital operations.

The Budapest Convention on Cybercrime and international humanitarian law lack mechanisms for resolving complex attribution challenges, where multi-jurisdictional routing masks responsible state actors. During a landmark July 2023 debate, the United Nations Security Council warned that unchecked artificial intelligence integration threatens global peace and security. Organizations such as UNESCO have promoted international ethical standards, transparency, and human oversight to mitigate adversarial attacks and prevent an unconstrained global cyber arms race. Without binding global norms, digital escalation risks becoming a permanent feature of geopolitical competition across both conventional and virtual battlefields.

The Swarm Matrix Asymmetric Deterrence, Reconstitution, and the Tech-Industrial Future of Peer Conflict

Global Security Review  |  Joshua Thibert

Autonomous systems, distributed manufacturing, and algorithmic integration are eroding traditional platform dominance, establishing swarm deterrence as a primary doctrine for asymmetric warfare. In Ukraine, Magura V7 unmanned surface vessels networked via satellite architectures achieved strategic sea denial, while Delta data fusion software compressed sensor-to-shooter cycles to minutes.

Concurrently, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy employs mixed-salvo geometries combining one-way attack drones like the Shahed-136 with ballistic missiles to exhaust high-end air defense interceptor inventories. Fieldable volume possesses distinct strategic quality. By deploying sub-$5,000 loitering munitions against exquisite targets, smaller militaries impose cost asymmetries that paralyze expeditionary forces in a high-density denial zone. Decentralized swarm architectures also reduce the utility of tactical nuclear strikes by eliminating high-value target concentrations. Ultimately, future peer conflict will be governed by software-defined combat ecosystems, dynamic electromagnetic spectrum domination, and dual-use commercial industrial bases capable of rapid battlefield reconstitution under active bombardment.

Why Is China Giving Away Its AI Models?

Takshashila Institution | Pranay Kotasthane, Nitin Pai, Bharath Reddy

China’s rapid proliferation of open-weight artificial intelligence models is reshaping global technology infrastructure, pushing its global usage share from 1.2 per cent in late 2024 to nearly 30 per cent by late 2025. This strategy leverages distillation and architectural efficiencies to dramatically lower training costs while undercutting the revenue models of proprietary American competitors.

DeepSeek trained its R1 reasoning model using 512 Nvidia H800 chips for just $294,000, demonstrating how software optimizations offset hardware export restrictions. Hardware constraints forced radical software innovation. President Xi Jinping subsequently leveraged this momentum by proposing a 29-country cooperation body at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference to drive long-term global adoption of Chinese full-stack cloud ecosystems. Despite current openness, structural thresholds regarding market consolidation and ecosystem lock-in indicate Beijing will likely impose graduated export restrictions around late 2028. Consequently, India must maintain a multi-ecosystem posture to mitigate strategic path dependence and safeguard technological autonomy.

Rolls-Royce, Safran vie for India’s next-generation fighter engine

Defense News  |  Anjana Pasricha

India is evaluating competing proposals from British firm Rolls-Royce and France's Safran to co-develop a 120 kN turbofan engine for its fifth-generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) Mk-2 fighter. The initiative aims to eliminate New Delhi's chronic reliance on foreign propulsion systems. Jet engine technology remains restricted worldwide.

While initial AMCA variants will utilize American GE F414 engines, later iterations require complete technology transfer and indigenous intellectual property ownership. Rolls-Royce has partnered with Reliance Industries following an August 14 announcement to propose an aerospace gas turbine complex for domestic design, manufacturing, and testing. Concurrently, Safran has offered a full technology transfer to co-develop a new engine alongside India's Gas Turbine Research Establishment, incorporating critical hot-section technology and turbine architecture. Safran's bid currently awaits approval from India's Cabinet Committee on Security. Sovereign engine capability is a non-negotiable priority for long-term Indian airpower.

Pakistan’s Infant Mortality Rate

Brief

Fourteen newborn infants died during a nursery fire at the Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences in Islamabad on 27 August 2026, highlighting systemic failures across Pakistan’s healthcare sector. The fatal tragedy at the capital’s primary federal hospital occurred inside a specialized unit designed for premature and critically ill infants.

This catastrophic event reflects broader institutional vulnerabilities in a national healthcare system where roughly 681 newborns die daily. According to United Nations estimates, Pakistan recorded an infant mortality rate of 48.2 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2024, with 248,523 infants dying within their first 28 days. Public health assessments reveal critical facility deficiencies, including ampicillin availability in only 45 percent of surveyed hospitals and absent fire suppression systems. Systemic delays remain fatal. Furthermore, incomplete civil birth registration—currently at 35 percent for infants under age one—obscures the true scale of newborn deaths, leaving Pakistan far off track from achieving its 2030 Sustainable Development Goal targets.

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Can workers seize the opportunity as Western capitalism declines?

The Daily Star  |  Khairul Hassan Jahin

Bangladesh's export-oriented garment industry generates $47 billion annually while workers face poverty wages due to multinational tax manipulation across complex global supply chains. Corporate entities artificially alter intermediate prices and transfer profits to low-tax jurisdictions, keeping origin-country wages suppressed. Economic operations halt without labour. Marxian economist Richard Wolff argues that employees constitute 77–80% of workforce populations whereas employers represent only 3%, framing worker unification across traditional and gig sectors as the primary driver of anti-capitalist organization.

While Western economic dominance declines and leadership transitions toward China and the BRICS bloc, United States power remains constrained by military overextension without political efficacy. Bangladesh and Global South labour movements must leverage collective action and targeted strikes to negotiate structural wage increases against corporate debt vulnerabilities. Ultimately, structural shifts from Western hegemony toward multipolarity create unprecedented leverage for organized labor, though whether this transition yields genuine workplace democracy or merely replaces dominant economic masters remains uncertain.

US says Chinese-linked hackers attacked NASA, Senate, and gov’t agencies

Al Jazeera  |  Catherine Nouhan

United States law enforcement authorities disrupted a China-affiliated cyber operation that targeted sensitive government institutions, including the Department of Justice, NASA, the Federal Reserve, and the US Senate. The operation dismantled two hacking platforms, QScan and QTRouter, which had infected thousands of internet-connected devices worldwide to disguise the origin of cyberattacks since at least 2018.

Federal prosecutors attributed the infrastructure to Nanjing Xinjiuwei Network Technology Company, a firm linked to China's Ministry of State Security and the People's Liberation Army. Hackers unsuccessfully attempted to breach NASA in August 2019 before successfully penetrating three Department of Energy laboratories, the National Institutes of Health, and the Department of Health and Human Services in September 2024. Routing traffic through compromised external devices obscured overseas origin points, delaying detection and attribution. Domain seizures disrupted operational capability. The action forms part of broader court-authorized measures led by federal law enforcement agencies against state-sponsored covert digital intrusions.

America’s Cosmic Bet on AI

Foreign Policy | Graham Allison

The United States has heavily concentrated its economic growth and national security strategy on artificial intelligence, with AI-related investments driving half of all business investment and 85 percent of S&P 500 gains in 2026. However, this high-stakes bet risks a major financial bubble as hyperscalers outpace commercial demand and face severe commoditization from low-cost foreign alternatives.

Massive capital expenditure on data centers has driven market valuations relative to earnings toward levels unrecorded since 1929. DeepSeek charges just 28 cents per output. This represents a 99 percent discount compared to Anthropic’s Opus 4.8 pricing. Chinese competitors are leveraging lean engineering teams to challenge American technological leads without matching Silicon Valley’s trillion-dollar infrastructure spending. Instead of chasing speculative artificial general intelligence, Beijing is deploying an "AI Plus" policy aimed at industrial productivity and widespread economic integration. Consequently, systemic fiscal vulnerabilities will intensify if projected software revenues fail to justify current U.S. corporate debt.

Daily Memo: US Sanctions on Iran, Pakistan-Iran Talks

Geopolitical Futures

The United States launched Operation Economic Outcast on August 25, 2026, announcing extensive new economic measures aimed at isolating Iran even further from the global economy. Under this targeted sanctions framework, Washington will apply secondary economic penalties against any foreign country or commercial entity that continues to do business with Tehran.

The strategy seeks to dismantle remaining international commercial ties and choke off vital revenue channels sustaining the regime. China's compliance is crucial. Because Beijing purchases Iranian resources and maintains active bilateral commercial engagements, Chinese participation will ultimately dictate whether these aggressive American enforcement mechanisms successfully degrade Iranian fiscal durability. Unilateral measures face severe structural limits when major trading partners continue bilateral trade relationships. Consequently, the ultimate effectiveness of Operation Economic Outcast hinges on whether Washington can successfully compel third-party nations to align with its restrictive global financial regime or face severe secondary enforcement actions.

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China’s Success Is Forcing a U.S. AI Rethink

Foreign Policy | Robert A. Manning, Giulia Neaher

China’s rapid progress in open-weight artificial intelligence technology is forcing Washington policy planners and Silicon Valley executives to fundamentally reassess their strategic playbook for maintaining global technological leadership. American export controls and proprietary model protections have failed to prevent Beijing from bridging critical capability gaps through aggressive open-source innovation.

Washington now confronts a structural dilemma as open-weight Chinese frameworks secure widespread adoption across international commercial and strategic sectors. The closed-model playbook has stalled. Federal hardware embargoes and compute restrictions have proven insufficient to halt Chinese software developments. Silicon Valley’s focus on capital-intensive closed architectures leaves American industrial posture vulnerable to leaner, open-source alternatives deployed globally. Consequently, the Trump administration must adapt U.S. technology strategy to a landscape defined by software accessibility rather than technological containment. Long-term advantage will depend on rapid operational integration rather than relying on unilateral trade restrictions.

The Saudis Are the Architects of Their Own Misfortune

Foreign Policy | Steven A. Cook

Saudi Arabia faces severe regional and economic vulnerabilities stemming from strategic blunders and missed diplomatic opportunities across the Middle East. Geopolitical miscalculations involving Iran, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Houthis have compounded persistent security challenges for Riyadh. Strategic missteps in foreign policy have diminished Saudi regional influence while elevating threats to critical oil infrastructure.

Heavy reliance on security assurances from the United States and the administration of Donald Trump failed to deliver long-term regional stability. Strategic miscalculations carry heavy costs. Consequently, Riyadh's attempt to manage regional rivalries alongside ambitious domestic economic programs has exacerbated its exposure to asymmetric strikes and regional instability. Divergent strategic priorities between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have further fractured regional security coalitions, leaving Saudi energy infrastructure vulnerable to Houthi strikes and Iranian proxy pressure. Riyadh now faces heightened strategic isolation as Middle Eastern security dynamics deteriorate without a reliable external defense umbrella.

Six Months Into the Iran War, the United States Has No Good Options

Council on Foreign Relations | James M. Lindsay

Six months into the United States war with Iran, President Donald Trump faces a protracted strategic stalemate as military strikes and economic pressure fail to force Tehran's capitulation. Intense American and Israeli air strikes destroyed Iranian military infrastructure and killed prewar leaders, yet tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted.

A fragile April ceasefire continues to hold. Washington remains militarily constrained because U.S. forces lack sufficient defensive interceptors to protect regional bases and allies from Iranian retaliation. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent launched Operation Economic Outcast to impose secondary sanctions, but enforcement risks triggering a global financial crisis. China purchases over 80 percent of Iranian oil exports and previously leveraged critical mineral access to force U.S. tariff concessions. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement with Pakistan and Turkey on August 7, 2026, signaling regional hedging against declining American power.

How Closely Should Presidents Follow Public Opinion about Foreign Policy?

E-International Relations  |  Caleb Griffin

The United States presidency in 2026 wields unprecedented, concentrated foreign policy power, enabling unilateral military actions and tariff declarations with minimal structural oversight. While historical realists like George F. Kennan argued that public opinion is too erratic to guide foreign policy, modern citizens rely on elite partisan cues to evaluate international affairs.

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The Iran War at Six Months: A Region—and Its Relationship With the U.S.—Transformed

Council on Foreign Relations  |  Steven A. Cook, Farah Pandith, Henri J. Barkey, Elliott Abrams, Bruce Hoffman, Ed Husain

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched joint strikes against Iran, destroying nuclear infrastructure and killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, triggering six months of regional warfare despite a Pakistan-mediated ceasefire and June memorandum of understanding. The resulting conflict compromised maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz and exposed Persian Gulf states to Iranian retaliation.

Washington’s pursuit of Operation Economic Outcast failed to force Tehran’s collapse as expected under Operation Epic Fury. Washington faces a strategic defeat. Tehran rapidly expanded sophisticated online propaganda to recruit global youth, alongside proxy networks like the Foxtrot Network conducting pay-for-hire attacks across Europe. Meanwhile, military ties between CENTCOM and Israel reached historic levels of tactical cooperation. Regional dynamics also shifted as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement on August 7, 2026, cementing Ankara's role as a balancing power while American strategic influence waned.

The U.S. Is Learning the Wrong Lessons in Iran

Foreign Policy

United States military policy toward Iran faces profound strategic failure by confusing short-term operational execution with long-term strategic success. Published on August 21, 2026, the core thesis demonstrates that tactical excellence can never salvage strategic incompetence in high-stakes regional conflicts. Mid-tier operational successes in conflict zones obscure systemic deficits in overarching defense planning and mission objectives.

Tactical precision cannot fix strategic failure. Questions regarding potential American ground invasion preparations further underscore growing tensions between immediate combat capabilities and sustainable geopolitical outcomes. Without clear policy goals, tactical engagements merely prolong regional instability while consuming critical defense assets. The misapplication of battlefield lessons risks repeating historical errors across Middle Eastern military campaigns. Washington must align tactical operations with coherent strategic ends rather than treating localized combat achievements as substitutes for viable policy. Failure to reconcile this operational divergence leaves U.S. forces exposed to enduring escalation risks and unfulfilled national security objectives.

Why the United States Keeps Losing Wars

Foreign Policy | Stephen M. Walt

The United States has established a persistent historical record of entering military conflicts with mismatched strategies and flawed strategic objectives. Washington continually struggles to align tactical military force with realistic, attainable long-term geopolitical ends, generating repeated strategic failures across multiple major regional theaters. Strategic misalignment remains a chronic structural vulnerability.

This recurring gap between military execution and high-level policy formulation severely undermines the credibility of global American deterrence. When operational force employment becomes disconnected from political end-states, military interventions routinely devolve into unsustainable commitments without clear termination criteria. Superior firepower cannot substitute for coherent strategy. The persistence of these doctrinal miscalculations degrades alliance credibility and exposes critical weaknesses within national security executive decision-making frameworks. Consequently, as major power rivalries escalate, Washington faces imperative structural pressure to recalibrate its force planning, balance military means with realistic strategic ends, and prevent further costly attrition in future overseas military operations.

Armenia, Azerbaijan and the unfinished peace

Engelsberg Ideas | Thomas de Waal

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan faces parliamentary elections on 7 June 2026, framing the vote as a mandate to normalise relations with Azerbaijan and reduce historical dependency on Russia. The upcoming election precedes a planned constitutional referendum required by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to ratify a bilateral 17-point peace agreement initialled in Washington in August.

Decades of frozen conflict ended when Azerbaijan captured Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023, forcing 100,000 ethnic Armenians to flee. Defeat accelerated Yerevan's strategic pivot. Pashinyan has frozen participation in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation while securing Western backing for the 43-km Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity railway linking Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan. In response, Moscow has deployed hybrid operations, financing opposition parties and imposing agricultural import bans against Armenia. However, ongoing military operations in Iran have delayed technical implementation of the border transit corridor. Pashinyan's aggressive campaign rhetoric toward Karabakh refugees threatens the broad consensus required to secure constitutional reform.