India’s Semiconductor Ecosystem Is Maturing—and ASML Is Taking Notice

Carnegie India | Konark Bhandari

ASML, the Netherlands-based semiconductor lithography machine manufacturer, recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Tata Electronics to accelerate the establishment of Tata’s semiconductor fab in Dholera, India. This partnership reflects India's maturing semiconductor ecosystem, which has also attracted Tokyo Electron, Merck Electronics, ROHM, and Intel. India offers a crucial new market for ASML, especially as Dutch firms face restrictions on selling semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) to China.

Pakistan Monthly Roundup: May 2026

Brief

Pakistan's army chief undertook two trips to Tehran and accompanied the Prime Minister to Beijing in May 2026, signaling significant diplomatic and strategic engagements. The Punjab wheat procurement model collapsed, with private aggregators securing less than a fifth of their revised target. Inflation was projected to hit 11.0 to 11.5 percent year-on-year, a 23-month high.

The 11th NPT Review Conference ends with a whimper

The Bulletin

The 11th Review Conference of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) concluded in deadlock, mirroring outcomes in 2015 and 2022, primarily due to an unresolved regional dispute concerning Iran. The United States insisted on explicitly naming Iran for non-compliance with the treaty, while Iran rejected any mention of its “peaceful nuclear program,” leading to an impasse.

Can China Stop Its Demographic Slide? Can the United States?

RAND  |  Michael Pollard, Jennifer Bouey, Tahina Montoya, Kelly Atkinson

China faces a significant demographic decline, with its fertility rate continuing to slump despite policy changes like allowing two children in 2015 and three in 2021. RAND researchers project China could end this century with 786 million fewer people, impacting its military security by needing better recruits for a technologically advanced force, and its economic security due to an aging, shrinking workforce increasing pension and healthcare costs.

Is Beijing the world’s ‘living room’? China is enjoying the global stage, but there are limits to its influence

The Conversation

Recent state visits to Beijing by Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump, alongside other world leaders, have positioned China in the global spotlight, leading some analysts to describe it as a "stabilising force" and an "indispensable global power." Chinese media even characterized Beijing as an international "living room" and declared the world was entering "Beijing time."

The Quad’s new agenda: ports, cables and minerals

Asia Times  |  Vivek Y Kelkar

The Quad foreign ministers' meeting in New Delhi unveiled new initiatives on Pacific infrastructure, maritime surveillance, critical mineral partnerships, and maritime domain awareness, signaling a strategic shift beyond military balances. Decisions included supporting a port in Fiji and India's Great Nicobar project, reflecting the growing importance of infrastructure, logistics networks, and maritime corridors for trade and energy flows in the Indo-Pacific.

Can Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ Rebound?

National Interest  |  Mohammed Ayoob

The Iran War has severely impacted Tehran's "Axis of Resistance," a loose network of state and non-state actors across Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Gaza. US-Israeli strikes on Iranian leadership and attrition of key partners like Hamas and Hezbollah have weakened the axis structurally, but not fatally. Its future depends on organizational resilience, Iran's capacity to reconstitute networks, and shifting regional politics.

Chinese Missile Might Have Been Used to Shoot Down F-15E in Iran – U.S. Officials

The Aviationist | Parth Satam

U.S. officials are investigating the possibility that a Chinese-made shoulder-fired Man-Portable Air Defense System (MANPADS) missile was used to shoot down a U.S. F-15E Strike Eagle over Iran on May 30, 2026. This follows earlier Donald Trump’s hints from April and denials from the Chinese Embassy regarding Chinese weapon transfers.

The Gulf Cooperation Council’s Security Dilemma

Geopolitical Futures  |  Hilal Khashan

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was established in 1981 by six Arab countries bordering the Persian Gulf, primarily to counter the security threats posed by their more powerful and ambitious neighbors, Iran and Iraq. Despite this foundational objective, the GCC member states have demonstrably struggled to achieve comprehensive military cooperation and robust defense integration.

Iran attacks damage 20 US military sites since start of war, satellite images show

BBC  |  Merlyn Thomas, Alex Murray, Matt Murphy

Iran has damaged 20 US military sites across eight Middle Eastern countries since the start of the war, satellite images and videos analyzed by BBC Verify reveal. This suggests Iran's counter-attacks are more extensive and precise than publicly acknowledged, inflicting millions of dollars in damage to state-of-the-art air defense systems, refuelling aircraft, and radars.

As the Pentagon Pushes for Battlefield AI, Some Military Leaders Urge Caution

Real Clear Defense  |  Konstantin Toropin

The Trump administration is actively promoting the integration of artificial intelligence into the U.S. military, aiming to leverage it as a unique American advantage. However, this push faces significant caution from some military leaders, including ADM Frank Bradley, head of U.S. Special Operations Command, who emphasizes the need for careful employment of AI, especially concerning its role in delivering lethality and ensuring human confidence in target determination.

Armies Can’t Win Wars Alone

Real Clear Defense  |  David A. Deptula

The claim that wars can only be won by conquering and occupying ground is a misleading cliché in American defense commentary, often attacking the false "airpower alone" proposition. Modern military campaigns succeed by integrating capabilities across domains to achieve defined political objectives, which do not always require occupation or territorial conquest.

Could Trump’s Iran ‘excursion’ be a bigger global turning point than Vietnam?

The Guardian | Patrick Wintour

Donald Trump's "excursion to Iran," despite its smaller scale compared to the Vietnam War with only 13 US casualties, is widely perceived as a defeat and a potential geopolitical turning point for the United States. This conflict, viewed as ill-conceived due to confused objectives and bad planning, confirmed cheap drones as a significant "leveller" in modern warfare and depleted US missile stores.

Lebanon

FrameTheGlobeNews

Israel has intensified its military operations in southern Lebanon, conducting drone strikes, airstrikes, and re-occupying sovereign territory, leading to significant civilian casualties and displacement. On May 31st, 2026, Israeli soldiers planted their flag at Beaufort Castle, a site previously occupied until 2000, marking a "decisive shift" according to Netanyahu.

A World on the Brink: The 2026 Middle East Crisis and the Dawn of a Global Polycrisis

Niti Shastra  |  Navroop Singh, Himja Parekh

The Middle East geopolitical landscape in 2026 has reached a critical boiling point, marked by direct military confrontations and diplomatic collapse involving the United States, Iran, Israel, and Lebanon. US-Iran military engagement in the Strait of Hormuz, including US self-defense strikes and Iranian retaliation, prompted Iran to threaten blocking the Strait and end peace talks with the US.

Ukraine Turns the Tide: Why a Cease-Fire Is Now a Real Possibility

Foreign Affairs  |  Jack Watling

The war in Ukraine has reached a pivotal turning point, fundamentally altering the established rhythm of Russia's full-scale invasion that solidified following Ukraine's unsuccessful 2023 counteroffensive. Historically, the conflict adhered to a predictable cycle of intense summer and winter offensives, with intervening lulls allowing Russian forces to rotate and regroup.

Putin’s $300,000,000,000 Was Supposed to Make Russia Untouchable in the Ukraine War — the West Froze It Overnight

National Security Journal  |  Andrew Latham

Western nations froze Russia's nearly $300 billion in sovereign assets overnight following its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, despite Moscow's years-long strategy to build reserves and reduce dollar dependency. This action, intended to punish Russia, also revealed the potent weaponization of Western financial power. Russia's pre-2022 financial strategy, which included paying down external debt and deliberately cutting the dollar’s share of its holdings, rested on the fatal assumption that assets held within the Western financial system would remain accessible during a confrontation.

Azerbaijan–Uzbekistan Partnership Gains Momentum

Eurasia Daily Monitor  |  Roza Bayramli

Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan are rapidly strengthening bilateral relations, with Ambassador Bahrom Ashrafkhanov stating on June 1, 2026, that ties are experiencing unprecedented development. Azerbaijan's formal admission to the C6 format in November 2025 established a broader geopolitical and geo-economic space linking Central Asia and the South Caucasus. This partnership reinforces Baku’s role as the South Caucasus anchor for westward connectivity and provides Tashkent access to the Caspian Sea, Türkiye, and European markets, alongside global investment and energy opportunities.

It’s Ideology, Stupid

Persuasion  |  Matt Johnson

Samuel P. Huntington's 1993 "clash of civilizations" thesis, predicting global conflict along cultural and religious fault lines, is fundamentally challenged by contemporary geopolitical realities. Huntington argued that eight civilizations would inevitably clash due to insuperable differences, and that "Western ideas" like democracy had little resonance outside Western culture.

As the Pentagon pushes for battlefield AI, some military leaders urge caution

The Hindu

The Trump administration is aggressively advancing the use of artificial intelligence within the U.S. military, despite significant calls for caution from some technology companies and senior military leaders. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth advocates for rapid AI evolution, rejecting models that limit "lawful military applications" and emphasizing systems operating "without ideological constraints."

FIGHTING LENS: MILITARY DOCTRINE AND THE FUTURE OF WARFARE IN ASIA

IISS

The United States' military doctrine in the Asia-Pacific focuses on denying China a fait accompli seizure of Taiwan by establishing capabilities for sustained defense, resilience, counter-air operations, anti-surface warfare, and countering anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) operations. China’s doctrine envisions ‘systems-destruction warfare’ through multi-domain joint operations, employing a counter-intervention strategy to deter US and allied involvement in support of Taiwan.

U.S. Says It Hit More Military Targets in Southern Iran

The New York Times  |  Yan Zhuang, Farnaz Fassihi, Sanam Mahoozi

The United States said on Sunday that it had attacked military targets in southern Iran over the weekend, the latest in a series of attacks over the past week. Less than an hour later, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps retaliated, targeting a military base from which it claimed an American strike originated.

How the arrival of quantum technologies will challenge defence policymakers

IISS  |  Dongyoun Cho

Quantum technologies will make a significant impact on the defence and security sector in the near future, particularly in terms of sensing, communications, and computing. The rapid emergence of these advanced capabilities, however, poses substantial and complex issues for defence policymakers. This is primarily because existing governance measures and regulatory frameworks are currently unable to keep pace with the swift development and deployment of new technologies.

The Emergence of Cognitive Intelligence (COGINT) as a New Military Intelligence Collection Discipline

Tandfonline  |  Saar Conde, Andrew Whiskeyman

Cognitive Intelligence (COGINT) emerges as a new military intelligence collection discipline, systematically mapping, safeguarding, and exploiting decision-making architectures in the contemporary cognitive battlespace. This discipline focuses on understanding, protecting, and strategically leveraging human cognition in modern conflict, addressing a critical gap in Fifth-Generation Warfare (5GW) force projection, influence, and strategic finality capabilities.

The Rise of Tunnel Warfare as a Tactical, Operational, and Strategic Issue

Taylor & Francis Online  |  Daphné Richemond-Barak, Stefan Voiculescu-Holvad

The presence of tunnels on a battlefield significantly impacts all mission aspects, from tactical engagements to broader operational and strategic ramifications. Militaries have historically struggled with subterranean threats, as evidenced by U.S. losses in the Pacific and Vietnam, and French difficulties in Mali against AQIM. This domain exposes the limits of modern precision warfare, often leading states to employ highly destructive measures.

The Indian Ocean Gap in U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy

Real Clear Defense  |  Sue Ghosh Stricklett

The United States and India's current strategic framework, established between 2005 and 2008, is now insufficient for the Indo-Pacific's transformed geopolitical environment, particularly given China's emergence as a near-peer military competitor. China's military modernization, industrial scale, and maritime expansion increasingly challenge the regional balance of power, exposing a critical gap in U.S.

What the 2025 India-Pakistan Conflict Revealed about Modern Warfare

The National Interest  |  Afeera Firdous, Sahar Khan, Haleema Saadia

The 2025 India-Pakistan conflict demonstrated a critical transition from platform-centric to system-centric warfare, characterized by beyond-visual-range (BVR) combat and distributed kill chains. On May 6–7, 2025, over 100 fighter aircraft engaged, with success depending on sensor-to-shooter speed and network integrity. Pakistan notably used Chinese-origin PL-15E missiles guided by airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) platforms in a "radar-silent" approach, highlighting fighters acting as network nodes.

Remarks by Secretary of War Pete Hegseth at the 2026 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore (As

Department of War  |  Pete Hegseth

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, speaking at the 2026 Shangri-La Dialogue, outlined a new U.S. national defense strategy for the Pacific, emphasizing a shift from dependency to true partnership based on aligned national interests. Under President Trump, the U.S. aims to reestablish deterrence and a "favorable but durable balance of power," preventing any single hegemon, including China, from dominating the region.

Japanese minister rejects ‘new militarism’ label from China in Shangri-La speech

South China Morning Post | Alcott Wei and Amber Wang

Japan's defence minister, Shinjiro Koizumi, rejected China's "new militarism" label at the Shangri-La Dialogue, asserting that changes to Japan's defence strategy aim for a new cooperative role. Koizumi opposed "unilateral changes to the status quo by force or coercion," implicitly targeting Beijing's maritime activities and potential military action regarding Taiwan.

Beijing Trip Report

Michael McFaul  |  Michael McFaul

During a recent trip to Beijing, Michael McFaul observed significant Chinese confidence in their rising global power, particularly following the Trump-Xi and Xi-Putin summits. Chinese academics and officials widely perceived the United States as a declining power, a view reinforced by Trump's perceived weakness and his acceptance of China's "constructive strategic stability" framing.

China and Maritime Chokepoints: Hormuz, Malacca, and Indo-Pacific Vulnerability

The Diplomat | Scott N. Romaniuk, László Csicsmann, and Amparo Pamela Fabe

The Strait of Hormuz became a focal point of regional tensions following United States and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, leading to heightened Iranian shipping restrictions and a blockade that renewed global concern over strategic maritime chokepoints, particularly the Strait of Malacca. While Hormuz is an energy chokepoint, Malacca is a network-dependent systemic trade chokepoint, linking the Indian and Pacific Oceans and critical for Middle East, Africa, and East Asia.

China’s Ministry Of State Security: The Spies Disrupting The West – Analysis

Eurasia Review  |  Patrick Omam

China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS) has significantly expanded its foreign intelligence operations, targeting Western institutions and critical infrastructure through cyber-warfare and economic espionage to achieve geopolitical and technological dominance. The MSS prioritizes low-friction operations to acquire intellectual property, trade secrets, and new technologies, which are central to Beijing's development strategy.

Taiwan’s more relaxed than most of us about Trumpian deal-making

Asia Times  |  Bill Emmott

The Beijing summit on May 14-15 between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, and a planned September 24 meeting in Washington, DC, raised global concerns that Taiwan's future might be traded off in a superpower deal. Despite fears of the US softening support for Taiwan in exchange for Chinese help in the Iran war or reduced US weapons sales for Chinese purchases, no such deal emerged from the secretive Beijing summit.

The Three-Body Problem: Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications

CSBA  |  Eric Edelman

The United States faces an unprecedented challenge in simultaneously deterring two nuclear peers, China and Russia, which are developing and deploying capabilities threatening the U.S. nuclear system. The potential for joint, concerted action by these nations further complicates deterrence calculus, raising the prospect of nuclear decapitation, an issue last confronted by policymakers some 40 years ago.

How America can remain the world’s AI superpower

The Washington Post  |  Hal Brands

The United States must implement essential steps to maintain its position as the world's artificial intelligence superpower, a status critical for national security and economic prosperity. This strategic imperative arises from a direct competition with China, which is rapidly advancing its own AI capabilities and seeking global influence.