Winning the AI Race

Chronicles Magazine  |  Colin Redemer

The United States must win the artificial intelligence race against China to prevent the People's Liberation Army from achieving global dominance and seizing critical semiconductor foundries in Taiwan by 2027. This geopolitical contest carries severe national security stakes, as Chinese cyberespionage networks like Volt Typhoon have already infiltrated American critical infrastructure to prepare for potential sabotage.

Taiwan Can Be Defended Against China. The Price Is the Real Problem

19FortyFive  |  Andrew Latham

Taiwan can successfully defeat a conventional Chinese amphibious invasion, but the defense would extract an unprecedented toll on United States and allied forces. While cheap drones, loitering munitions, and unmanned surface vessels make crossing the Taiwan Strait highly lethal for Beijing's forces, they cannot overcome fundamental geographic realities.

China says countries should not overread Pacific SLBM test

UPI

China defended its July 2026 test launch of a submarine-launched ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean, asserting the exercise was routine military training and not directed at any nation. The launch of the suspected Julang-3 missile carrying a dummy warhead drew immediate condemnation from regional actors including Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and the Solomon Islands.

President touts democratic cooperation to address China’s "gray zone"

Taipei Times  |  Chen Yun, Sam Garcia

Taiwanese President William Lai urged democratic partners, including a visiting US National Endowment for Democracy delegation, to strengthen security and trade cooperation to counter China's escalating military and gray-zone coercion. This diplomatic push coincided with Beijing's provocative launch of a JL-2 intercontinental ballistic missile from the South China Sea into the South Pacific, which traveled over 7,000 kilometers.

Talk of US-China decoupling is getting loud – but neither side is ready for a clean break

South China Morning Post  |  Sylvia Ma

The United States and China remain deeply entangled through extensive financial and economic dependencies that prevent a clean decoupling despite increasingly frosty bilateral relations. As the United States marks the 250th anniversary of its founding, this complex relationship dominates the emerging global order, forcing both superpowers to confront significant pressure points across technology, finance, and soft power.

How drones transformed Iran's relationships with its proxies

Deutsche Welle  |  Jennifer Holleis

Iranian-backed paramilitary groups in the Middle East have achieved unprecedented operational autonomy by manufacturing and deploying their own unmanned aerial vehicles. Despite intensive military campaigns launched by the United States and Israel in early 2026 to cripple this "Axis of Resistance," these proxy networks successfully sustained drone strikes against regional targets and international shipping lanes.

How the Iran War Weighs on the U.S.-Saudi Partnership and Prospects for Normalization with Israel

Center for Strategic and International Studies  |  Michael Ratney, Abdullah Alhenaki

The 2026 Iran war has severely strained the U.S.-Saudi security partnership by exposing Riyadh to devastating retaliatory strikes without prior consultation or adequate defense guarantees from Washington. This unexpected conflict ultimately forced the kingdom to deny critical overflight and basing rights to American forces during Operation Freedom to avoid further Iranian retaliation.

Exclusive: US commanders bypassed warnings about outdated intelligence ahead of strike that hit school in Iran, sources say

CNN | Zachary Cohen

Senior US military commanders bypassed database warnings regarding outdated intelligence to expedite target approvals, directly causing a February 28, 2026, airstrike on the Shajareh Tayyiba school in Minab, Iran, which killed at least 168 children and 14 teachers. This devastating incident occurred on the first day of combat operations as personnel rushed to generate strike lists.

Why the US and Iran's first-step deal was doomed to fail

MSN

The United States and Iran's interim de-escalation agreement, which facilitated a prisoner swap and released $6 billion in frozen Iranian funds, faced systemic vulnerabilities from its inception. This limited diplomatic arrangement sought to lower regional tensions but lacked binding legislative support or a comprehensive framework to address broader security concerns.

Endless Warfare – Part II: Countering Endless Warfare and its Networks

The Cipher Brief  |  Dave Pitts

The United States is currently engaged in a continuous, long-term conflict with determined adversaries who are waging "Endless Warfare" below the threshold of open conflict, aiming to erode U.S. power and global leadership. This persistent strategy incorporates gray zone activity, cognitive warfare, weaponized negotiations, and proxies. This distinct form of conflict demands a different strategic mindset and approach from the United States, moving beyond a sole focus on conventional warfare.

Trump Declares Iran Deal ‘Over’ After Renewed Strikes

Eurasia Review  |  Alex Raufoglu

US President Donald Trump declared the bilateral memorandum of understanding with Iran "over" following renewed American military strikes in the region and retaliatory Iranian attacks against commercial shipping and US-linked sites in Bahrain and Kuwait. This rapid escalation directly threatens the critical Strait of Hormuz maritime chokepoint and jeopardizes the fragile cease-fire established just last month.

The Pentagon Must Undertake Its Own Transformation

National Review  |  Bing West

The United States is projected to reduce its defense spending to the lowest share of gross domestic product since 1937, threatening national readiness for future global conflicts. Over the next five years, the White House and Congress propose allocating just 2.7 percent of gross domestic product annually to national defense.

‘We May Sleepwalk Our Way Back to War’

The Atlantic  |  Nancy A. Youssef, Jonathan Lemire, Vivian Salama

Iran's decision to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz and the subsequent U.S. retaliation with missile and drone strikes have pushed both nations close to resuming a war neither side explicitly desires. The U.S., having joined Israel in a war to end Iran’s nuclear ambitions, aimed to reopen the strategic waterway, which Iran had repeatedly targeted despite a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed three weeks prior.

Europe Is Struggling to Lead NATO

Foreign Policy  |  Anchal Vohra

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte recently presented a 'Trump Trillion' chart in Washington to highlight that European allies have spent over $1 trillion on defense since 2017. This move aims to influence U.S. President Donald Trump's diplomatic posture ahead of the alliance summit in Ankara, Turkey, where defense spending commitments will dominate negotiations.

Erdogan’s Turkey: Far Removed From EU And NATO Principles, Yet More Indispensable Than Ever

Eurasia Review  |  Richard Rousseau

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan hosted the July 2026 NATO summit in Ankara, leveraging Turkey's strategic position and military capabilities to strengthen his international standing despite severe domestic economic and political crises. This high-profile diplomatic gathering highlights how indispensable Ankara has become to Western security, even as the country transitions toward an authoritarian, nationalist-religious autocracy.

The Geography of Coercion: Russian Missile and Drone Campaigns in Ukraine

Center for Strategic and International Studies  |  Marcus Welsch, Yasir Atalan, Benjamin Jensen, Erik Tiersten-Nyman

Russia's military forces scaled their long-range strike campaign against Ukraine to between 5,000 and 6,000 Shahed-type drone launches per month by late 2025, aiming to coerce Kyiv into political concessions. This massive expansion of firepower has dramatically increased reported damage across Ukrainian territory, concentrating heavily on frontline regions, logistical nodes, and critical energy infrastructure.

The Strait of Hormuz is now at the centre of Iranian and US calculus

Al Jazeera

The United States launched retaliatory military strikes on Iranian territory and voided a bilateral memorandum of understanding following recent tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. This escalation threatens to permanently disrupt a maritime chokepoint where Iranian forces have already reduced shipping traffic by 95 percent, triggering the largest oil supply shock in modern market history.

The Strait of Hormuz Already Faces a Tough Recovery. Now Trump’s Iran Deal Is Unraveling.

Council on Foreign Relations  |  Max Boot, Clara Gillispie

The fragile U.S.-Iran cease-fire is on the verge of collapse following fresh military strikes and President Donald Trump’s threat to terminate the June 17 Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). This escalation directly threatens efforts to restore commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint where twenty percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas transits.

The Age of Energy Warfare: Lessons from the Ukraine and Iran Wars

Modern War Institute  |  Olga Khakova, Morgan D. Bazilian, Macdonald Amoah, Jahara Matisek

Russia's systematic targeting of Ukraine's power grid and the 2026 Iran War have demonstrated that the economics of precision strikes permanently favor the attacker over the defender. By transitioning from temporary grid disruption to the permanent destruction of generation assets, Moscow eliminated nine gigawatts of Ukrainian capacity, causing direct damages that exceed $16 billion.

The Silent Dependency: GNSS Vulnerabilities, Quantum PNT, and the Future of Small Wars

Small Wars Journal | Muhammad Waqas Haider

Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 was shot down on December 25, 2024, after experiencing Russian GPS jamming, marking the first instance of civilian fatalities directly caused by radio-frequency interference. This tragedy underscores how modern military and civilian operations critically depend on GNSS signals that have now become highly exploitable vulnerabilities in contemporary battlespaces.

If You Can Run a Spy, You Can Run AI

The Cipher Brief | Mike Mears, Dr. John O'Neil and James C. Lawler

Generative AI systems require management akin to human intelligence sources, not as infallible "oracle machines," to prevent confabulation where AI generates plausible but incorrect inferences. This risk stems from AI's inherent sycophancy, often rewarded for agreeableness over accuracy in training. Effective utilization demands disciplined source selection, evaluating models for specific tasks based on known track records, failure modes, and how they handle uncertainty.

The Strategic Importance Of The Northeastern Indian State Of Assam

Eurasia Review  |  P. K. Balachandran

Assam is emerging as a critical geopolitical buffer for India as New Delhi partners with Japan to counter China's expanding economic and military footprint across neighboring Bangladesh, Nepal, and Myanmar. This strategic collaboration aims to secure the vulnerable Siliguri Corridor, a narrow land strip connecting India to its northeastern states that remains highly susceptible to external disruptions.

As the Dalai Lama Turns 91, India and China Are Fighting for the Future of Buddhism

The Diplomat  |  Kritee Chopra

The 14th Dalai Lama celebrated his 91st birthday on July 6, 2026, intensifying a geopolitical struggle between India and China over who controls the succession of the next Tibetan spiritual leader and the broader custodianship of global Buddhism. This milestone accelerates a critical transition as both nuclear-armed neighbors vie for religious legitimacy across Asia.

Syria’s Jihadist Crackdown Could Lead to Islamic State Defections

The Jamestown Foundation | Uran Botobekov

Syria’s new government under President Ahmed al-Sharaa is executing a pragmatic crackdown on foreign jihadist factions, forcing Central Asian and North Caucasus militants to integrate into the military or face severe repression. This security sweep has triggered armed standoffs in Idlib and prompted the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP) to actively recruit these disgruntled, displaced fighters.

Can the Private Sector Save Vietnam?

Foreign Affairs  |  Edmund J. Malesky, Viktoria Zlomanova

The Communist Party of Vietnam has signaled a major shift in its national governance strategy by releasing two critical policy documents during its January party congress. These foundational texts, consisting of a political report and a socioeconomic development plan, officially establish the state's governing agenda for the upcoming five-year political cycle.

Taiwan Can Be Defended Against China. The Price Is the Real Problem

19FortyFive  |  Andrew Latham

Taiwan can be defended against a Chinese amphibious invasion, but the operational and strategic costs for the United States and its regional allies would be exceptionally high. While Admiral Samuel Paparo’s “hellscape” idea leverages cheap drones, loitering munitions, and unmanned surface vessels to disrupt Beijing's forces, these technologies also empower the adversary.

Financing the end of the digital divide

Atlantic Council  |  Kenton Thibaut, Jochai Ben-Avie

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has strategically positioned digital infrastructure investment at the core of its global strategy. Through state-directed financing, bundled technology offerings, and sustained engagement, China has become the dominant provider of telecommunications infrastructure in large swathes of the Global South, advancing its commercial interests, surveillance capabilities, and technological strategic advantage.

Europe’s “Wake-Up Call”

Asia Society | Philippe Le Corre

The European Union's relationship with China is undergoing a significant transformation, with the EU increasingly prioritizing economic security, industrial resilience, and technological sovereignty over unrestricted market access. In June 2026, the European Council endorsed a tougher trade policy toward China, reflecting mounting concerns over widening trade imbalances and growing dependence on Chinese critical minerals and green technologies.

Why is a Chinese-made portable AC selling out across heat-stricken Europe?

South China Morning Post  |  Mia Nurmamat

Midea’s PortaSplit, a specialized Chinese-made portable air conditioner, has completely sold out across heat-stricken Europe within just a few weeks during intense summer heatwaves. This sudden supply deficit has triggered significant resale price mark-ups on secondary markets and driven unprecedented consumer demand for expedited shipping options across the continent's major urban centers.

Reassessing the US Alliance System

American Enterprise Institute | Colin Dueck

The US alliance system requires reassessment to effectively counterbalance Chinese power and mitigate allied free riding, shifting focus from liberal rules-based world order conceptions. The second Trump administration successfully reduced allied free riding, but its trade wars with US allies have inadvertently prompted key partners to hedge towards China.

Capital Wars: The Installed Class: How the Muslim World Is Managed, Not Governed

Frame the Globe News

The Financial Industrial Complex maintains an "installed class" of political managers across the Muslim world to prevent sovereign governments from redirecting resource wealth away from global capital markets. This transnational architecture deliberately suppresses democratic self-governance to secure critical maritime chokepoints and safeguard the recycling of petrodollar surpluses into Western treasury bonds.

Turkey, NATO, and the New Middle East Balance

National Interest  |  Mohammed Ayoob

President Donald Trump announced on July 6, 2026, that he intends to lift United States sanctions on Turkey over its purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system. This decision, coinciding with the July 7–8 NATO Summit in Ankara, signals a major shift in Washington's approach to its highly strategic ally.

The Bourbon trap: military prowess is not a grand strategy

Engelsberg Ideas | Joshua Rovner

The United States risks repeating the catastrophic collapse of eighteenth-century Bourbon France by prioritizing short-term military victories over a coherent, long-term grand strategy. During the American War of Independence, French forces secured a brilliant joint victory at the 1781 Battle of Yorktown, yet this tactical success ultimately bankrupted the monarchy.

The Ukraine Lesson Taiwan Keeps Missing

Foreign Affairs  |  David Petraeus, Clara Kaluderovic

Taiwan risks misinterpreting the conflict in Ukraine by focusing excessively on the procurement of unmanned systems rather than the critical operational ecosystems required to sustain them. The ongoing war demonstrates that while cheap, remotely piloted platforms are transformative, their battlefield utility depends entirely on integrated networks and supporting infrastructure.

If Europe Wants to Save NATO, It’s Doing All the Wrong Things

The New York Times  |  Massimo Calabresi

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is attempting to preserve the transatlantic alliance by placating President Trump while simultaneously pressuring European member states to rapidly rebuild their atrophied militaries. This dual-track strategy faces a critical test at the upcoming summit of NATO's 32 countries in Ankara, Turkey, where leaders must address deep-seated European defense integration failures.