Out of Ammo: A Two-Year Sprint to Rebuild the American Arsenal and Deter China

Council on Foreign Relations | Rush Doshi

The United States Department of Defense faces severe material constraints to deter a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2027, following critical munition depletions during Operation Epic Fury. To close this critical capability gap within a two-year window, Congress and the Pentagon are deploying emergency legislation and administrative directives to rapidly scale precise mass capabilities, including low-cost autonomous drones, sensors, and containerized cruise missiles.

These expendable systems complement high-end legacy platforms like submarines and fighter jets, whose extended production timelines and supply chain bottlenecks prevent immediate expansion. Backed by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth directed $16 billion toward low-cost armaments and created a direct reporting portfolio manager overseeing $53.6 billion in unmanned capabilities. Sustaining credible deterrence ultimately demands prioritizing manufacturing schedule over traditional cost and quality constraints while placing American defense production on an immediate wartime footing.

Trump’s South Korea Move Fuels Growing Fears of U.S. Retreat From Asia

Council on Foreign Relations  |  Joshua Kurlantzick

President Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon in August 2026 to scale back joint military exercises with South Korea, marking a broader redeployment of American power away from the Indo-Pacific theater. This operational shift coincided with the relocation of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors and the last regional U.S.

aircraft carrier to the Middle East, leaving no American carrier strike group in Asia. The strategic adjustment reflects a doctrinal pivot toward Western Hemisphere dominance codified in the 2025 National Security Strategy. Concurrently, U.S. Taiwan Strait transits dropped by 50 percent relative to Trump's first term, while Freedom of Navigation Operations in the South China Sea ceased entirely during the first half of 2026. Consequently, regional allies including Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines are accelerating independent defense planning, elevating military budgets, and debating nuclear proliferation options as confidence in Washington's security guarantees erodes, directly expanding strategic openings for China.

A China Strategy That Lasts: Congress Must Lead to Compete With Beijing

Foreign Affairs | Bill Cassidy

Chinese state-subsidized industrial overproduction requires a permanent legislative framework from the United States Congress to safeguard domestic manufacturing and secure global supply chains. Presidential executive orders offer only temporary protections against predatory trade practices, leaving U.S. national security vulnerable to political shifts in Washington. In response, congressional leaders aim to codify the June 2026 executive order on customs enforcement, building on the July 2025 repeal of the de minimis tariff exemption for packages under $800.

Enacting the Customs Modernization Act would equip Customs and Border Protection with advanced artificial intelligence analytics to screen imports effectively. Externally, the proposed Americas Act seeks to counter Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative by founding the Americas Investment Corporation to finance near-shoring and critical mineral supply chains across the Western Hemisphere. Finally, the Foreign Pollution Fee targets China's 2024 carbon emissions exceeding 12 billion tons, offsetting cost advantages gained through lax environmental standards.

Asia Isn’t as Peaceful as It Seems

Foreign Policy | Huong Le Thu

Dissolving international norms against major armed conflict are actively eroding foundational stability across Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region. Escalating geopolitical friction involving U.S. foreign policy under Donald Trump, Chinese strategic projection under Xi Jinping, and cascading crises in the Middle East signal an increasingly volatile security environment.

These shifting strategic dynamics threaten to dismantle long-standing regional deterrence frameworks as systemic competition intensifies across critical maritime channels and disputed territorial boundaries. The erosion of established international prohibitions against state-on-state warfare directly heightens operational escalation risks, creating tighter strategic linkages between ongoing European, Middle Eastern, and Asian conflict theaters. Consequently, decaying normative constraints place unprecedented pressure on multilateral alliance structures, crisis management protocols, and defense industrial base capacity. As the systemic threshold for employing military force continues to lower globally, defense planners face acute structural challenges regarding forward force posture, sovereign supply chain resilience, and cross-domain deterrence stability throughout the Indo-Pacific theater.

Reaping what you sow: putting a ‘hybrid’ air force into practice

Military Balance+ | Gregor Wilson

The United States Air Force employed the General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper as an attritable platform during Operation Epic Fury over Iran, accepting elevated losses to protect crewed strike assets and maintain persistent ISR capabilities. Iranian ground-based air defenses destroyed at least 29 MQ-9s operating deep within hostile airspace, demonstrating the operational trade-offs of using non-stealthy uncrewed systems in contested environments.

This willingness to absorb uncrewed platform attrition stands in stark contrast to the massive resources required for combat search-and-rescue operations. On 3 April 2026, the shootdown of a single Boeing F-15E Strike Eagle triggered a rescue mission resulting in the destruction of two MC-130J Commando IIs, four MH-6 Little Birds, two UH-60 Black Hawks, one A-10 Thunderbolt II, and an MQ-9. Accounting for roughly one-third to one-half the equipment value of all MQ-9 losses combined, this single rescue highlights the prohibitive financial and operational costs of crewed losses, accelerating USAF demand for mass-produced Collaborative Combat Aircraft.

The End of the American Middle East: Iran and the Last Gasp of a Failed Order

Foreign Affairs  |  Marc Lynch

The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has shattered the Middle East security architecture established after the 1991 Gulf War, exposing the systemic limits of American military containment. Iran’s resilience against direct strikes and missile attacks targeting maritime trade and Gulf energy infrastructure demonstrated that Washington can no longer guarantee regional stability or secure the vital Strait of Hormuz.

For three decades, this strategic framework relied on stationing forces across Arab monarchies, containing Tehran through multilateral sanctions, and attempting to integrate Israel into a formal anti-Iranian alliance without resolving Palestinian statehood. However, asymmetric gray-zone warfare, low-cost ballistic missile and drone proliferation, and unconstrained regional escalation gradually eroded the core deterrence assumptions underpinning these foundational security bargains. As Gulf states pursue alternative diplomatic hedges and Israel expands military operations, Washington faces an unraveling order that continuously threatens to entangle American forces in perpetual regional conflict.

Trump’s chaos may be destroying his own foreign policy

CNN | Stephen Collinson

United States President Donald Trump announced plans to scale back military drills with South Korea and threatened to bomb Oman following the expiration of a 60-day memorandum of understanding with Iran. These disruptive diplomatic actions stem from Seoul's refusal to participate in the Middle East conflict and Muscat's negotiations with Tehran over maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

The sudden shift exposes deep structural tensions within the administration's transactional foreign policy framework, which prioritizes unilateral concessions and financial burden-sharing over long-standing treaty commitments. Despite heavy strikes against Iranian infrastructure, Tehran is actively expanding its missile and drone manufacturing during operational lulls while keeping vital commercial shipping lanes effectively closed. Simultaneously, unilateral tariff threats against trade partners and attempts to re-engage North Korean leader Kim Jong Un further strain historic alliances in Europe and East Asia. Consequently, critics argue that this volatile approach risks undermining American strategic credibility globally while failing to establish durable regional stability.

AI, Drones, and Long-Range Fires: Inside the Army's New Multi-Domain Command Pacific

Warrior Maven  |  Tuva Siegel

The United States Army officially redesignated the 7th Infantry Division as the Multi-Domain Command Pacific to integrate conventional ground maneuver forces with advanced cyber, space, electronic warfare, and long-range strike capabilities across the Indo-Pacific. Headquartered at Joint Base Lewis-McChord under Commanding General Major General Bernard J. Harrington, the newly restructured formation seeks to accelerate sensor-to-shooter kill chains across vast maritime and island chains.

During joint exercises like Balikatan 26, the unit demonstrated the operational integration of air defense, counter-unmanned aerial systems, and long-range precision fires in a simulated theater environment. The command utilizes artificial intelligence and agentic command-and-control networks to process real-time intelligence gathered from space to terrestrial sensors while retaining human-on-the-loop oversight. Drawing direct operational lessons from drone saturation and decoy tactics in Ukraine, the command is fielding layered autonomous systems alongside commercial tech vendors to conduct intra-theater logistics, deception, and forward-deployed targeting missions.

The Abandoned Order: Learning to Live in a Post-American World

Foreign Affairs  |  Mark Leonard

United States support for the rules-based international order has collapsed, forcing global allies to adapt to an unprecedented systemic breakdown without an alternative superpower stepping in. President Donald Trump’s internal rebellion against multilateral institutions, coupled with weaponized tariffs and alliance burden-shifting, has accelerated the fragmentation of global governance.

Technological diffusion, such as cheap precision missiles and drones, has severely eroded traditional U.S. maritime and aerial dominance across critical chokepoints. Consequently, middle powers and adversaries increasingly operate without a shared regulatory framework, triggering sharp price divergences in energy commodities, high-tech supply chain weaponization, and systemic economic decoupling. Key security partnerships like NATO and AUKUS face unprecedented strain as member states hedge against American unreliability through localized defense spending and potential nuclear proliferation. As conventional diplomatic mechanisms fail, informal intermediaries handle frozen conflicts while state actors turn trade infrastructure, financial networks, and critical technologies into geopolitical weapons.

Realism Is Unrealistic

Foreign Policy | Matthew Kroenig

Political realism as an international relations framework consistently fails to account for United States foreign policy behaviors, particularly regarding post-Cold War hegemony and grand strategic decision-making. Despite realism's focus on material power balances and rational state behavior within an anarchic international system, Washington's actual actions frequently deviate from structural predictions through ideological commitments, institutional expansion, and democratic internationalism.

This persistent analytical disconnect highlights fundamental flaws in classical realist assumptions when applied to unipolar or hegemon-led international orders. Consequently, defense strategists and foreign policy planners face growing operational friction when utilizing structural realism to predict alliance cohesion, power projection, or systemic balance-of-power dynamics in contemporary geopolitics. Washington's historical preference for value-driven alliance frameworks like NATO over strict realpolitik balancing forces a reevaluation of traditional security doctrines. Ultimately, overreliance on realist paradigms risks miscalculating how state power is operationalized across contested strategic theaters.

Donald Trump’s ‘Pivot from Asia’

National Review  |  Noah Rothman

United States President Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon to substantially reduce military participation in upcoming joint exercises with South Korea, citing Seoul's refusal to support military operations in the Strait of Hormuz against Iran. Trump questioned the strategic rationale of maintaining 39,000 American troops on the Korean Peninsula while Seoul refuses to help safeguard maritime corridors supplying 50 percent of its oil.

The dispute unfolds as the United States redeploys major naval assets, including tasking the aircraft carrier USS George Washington to relieve the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Middle East, leaving the Western Pacific without a carrier strike group. In response to pressure, South Korea's Blue House is evaluating military contributions, including defensive exports like the Cheongung-II surface-to-air missile and Block-I laser systems to counter asymmetric drone threats. However, domestic opposition remains high, with over 60 percent of South Koreans opposing naval deployments to the Middle East despite escalating regional security friction.

Beyond The Frontline: The Two Strategic Ecosystems Of The War In Ukraine

Eurasia Review  |  Corneliu Pivariu

Russia and Ukraine are sustaining high-intensity warfare through competing external support ecosystems rather than relying solely on national power. Ukraine relies on an institutionalized Western coalition led by the United States for high-end military equipment and intelligence alongside European Union financial and industrial backstopping. Conversely, Russia’s support structure operates through functional specialization among non-aligned partners lacking formal treaty obligations.

China provides critical dual-use components, microelectronics, and machine tools that preserve Moscow's defense industrial base, while North Korea supplies artillery ammunition and ballistic missiles to offset high battlefield consumption rates. Meanwhile, Iran contributes asymmetric drone capabilities and tactical operational concepts. Long-term military endurance depends on which ecosystem demonstrates superior resource regeneration, rapid adaptation, and sustained political commitment. Consequently, strategic competition in twenty-first-century warfare is increasingly defined by the industrial, technological, and logistical capacity of supporting networks rather than the initial bilateral force balance on the front lines.

Sacked Ukrainian defence minister calls for presidential election

BBC  |  Dan Johnson, Paul Kirby

Former Ukrainian Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has publicly called for wartime presidential elections, posing the most severe domestic political challenge to President Volodymyr Zelensky since Russia launched its full-scale invasion four and a half years ago. Dismissed from his post in July 2026, Fedorov released a video statement alleging a systemic governance crisis and arguing that wartime corruption actively deprives military forces of necessary equipment.

Under martial law declared in 2022, Kyiv suspended national elections, maintaining Zelensky in power past his presidential term expiration in May 2024. Presidential officials dismissed Fedorov's demands as dangerous amidst ongoing Russian bombardments, arguing political upheaval directly aids Moscow. Concurrently, anti-corruption agencies executed raids against parliamentary figures, leading to the dismissal of deputy presidential chief of staff Iryna Mudra. While street protests in Kyiv demand Fedorov's reinstatement, newly confirmed Defence Minister Yevhenii Khmara is prioritizing deep-strike operations inside Russian territory.

What happens when the West runs out of interceptor missiles

The Economist

Russian forces are launching intensified ballistic and hypersonic missile strikes against Kyiv as Ukrainian air defense units face critical ammunition depletion. Ukraine’s MIM-104 Patriot missile batteries are rapidly exhausting their interceptor stockpiles, reaching a state known as going Winchester after months of suppressing high-volume aerial bombardments. This widening supply deficit leaves major metropolitan centers and critical national infrastructure increasingly exposed to heavy aerial devastation.

Western defense industrial capacity has struggled to scale production to match the high consumption rates demanded by modern peer-level air defense operations. The rapid drawdown of high-end interceptor inventories in Europe severely degrades overall NATO deterrence capabilities and underscores systemic bottlenecks within Western defense manufacturing supply chains. As stockpiles hit precarious lows, military commanders face difficult operational choices regarding target prioritization and defense allocation. The resulting imbalance between mass-produced offensive strike assets and limited defensive interceptors poses severe long-term strategic risks for Western security.

Space-Based Power: Will It Happen?

National Interest  |  Peter Garretson, Michael Brown

Space-based power systems, including orbital mirror arrays and energy-collecting satellites, are driving a renewed debate between defense strategists and commercial energy developers over the future of global power generation. Proponents such as Dr. Peter Garretson argue that declining launch expenses, modular satellite manufacturing, and experimental wireless power transmission projects led by the AFRL, NRL, and DARPA make orbital harvesting increasingly feasible.

Conversely, critics like Monash University astronomer Michael Brown maintain that severe beam dispersion, orbital maintenance burdens, and massive capital outlay will prevent space systems from outcompeting terrestrial photovoltaics, battery storage, and conventional power grids. While military institutions view wireless beaming as a potential paradigm shift for expeditionary logistics and austere outposts, the commercial viability of beaming gigawatts of energy down to ground stations remains contested. Ultimately, the industry's trajectory depends on whether government investment and private capital can sufficiently lower space transportation costs to challenge Earth-bound alternatives.

Belonging Is Our Test

Eurasia Review  |  John Singarayar

Pope Leo XIV’s papal encyclical Magnifica Humanitas directly confronts a growing global moral lag where international economic, technological, and security architectures outpace localized human instincts and loyalties. Addressing interconnected systemic crisis vectors including climate change, rapid artificial intelligence deployment, and armed conflict, the document establishes human dignity as an unalterable limit against state and market utilitarianism.

The text highlights how advanced machine learning platforms risk expanding state surveillance capabilities, accelerating digital disinformation, and deepening structural inequality between technology developers and vulnerable populations. Additionally, modern military conflicts demonstrate how localized violence quickly destabilizes global economic supply chains and diplomatic networks, proving that national security can no longer be compartmentalized behind territorial borders. Ultimately, the encyclical asserts that enduring geopolitical stability requires translating localized loyalties into transnational civic responsibility, urging international institutions to embed ethical limits directly into military doctrine, climate governance, and algorithmic oversight mechanisms before technological capabilities permanently outpace regulatory control.

The Global South: the 21st century’s great utopia

Engelsberg Ideas | Stephen Kotkin

Finnish President Alexander Stubb proposes expanding the United Nations Security Council with five new permanent seats for Africa, Asia, and Latin America to bridge the Global West and Global South. This reform initiative aims to counter geopolitical fragmentation between democratic western nations and illiberal eastern powers like China and Russia.

The structural proposal addresses a historical evolution wherein the former Third World concept re-emerged as the Global South, shifting global diplomatic alignments away from rigid Cold War divisions. Stubb advocates abolishing veto powers and suspending voting rights for states committing aggression, yet such UN reforms face systemic hurdles under Article 109 due to required permanent-member consensus. Historical precedents like the 1980 Brandt Line demonstrate that top-down wealth redistribution failed to foster development, whereas open market access and security architecture driven by the United States ultimately elevated over one billion people into the global middle class.

We Thought Tech Would Make War More Precise. We Were Wrong.

The New York Times  |  David Wallace-Wells

Modern military strikes against civilian energy infrastructure have become a defining feature of contemporary warfare, marked by recent U.S. presidential threats against Iranian power plants alongside systemic drone attacks across the Persian Gulf, Ukraine, Russia, Gaza, Sudan, and the Red Sea. These widespread operational campaigns signal the collapse of long-standing international prohibitions safeguarding non-combatant utility networks during active hostilities.

According to a West Point Modern War Institute report, advancing autonomous drone capabilities and long-range precision strikes have enabled belligerents to exploit vulnerable grid architecture far behind frontlines with minimal tactical friction. This shift marks the emergence of fifth-generation warfare, wherein major global powers adopt insurgent-style economic attrition tactics that obscure the boundaries between conventional combat and infrastructure destruction. As states routinely target power generation, water networks, and oil refineries, the global conflict environment faces heightened risks of catastrophic humanitarian crises and unconstrained escalation.

Mapping Iranian Cyberattacks on U.S. Water Systems

Center for Strategic and International Studies  |  Emily Harding, Aosheng Pusztaszeri, Lauryn Williams, Nikita Shah, Aashka Vyas, Carter Musheno

Iranian state-sponsored cyber actors targeting United States critical infrastructure compromised municipal water utilities across multiple states, including Minnesota, exposing systemic vulnerabilities in industrial control systems. The attacks targeted programmable logic controllers regulating water treatment, pressure management, and distribution networks. This wave of operations highlights a deliberate tactical shift by Tehran-aligned groups toward disrupting operational technology in public municipal entities.

By exploiting default passwords and unpatched internet-facing devices, these threat actors routinely bypassed perimeter defenses without deploying custom malicious software. The systematic targeting of public water authorities directly threatens public health, local emergency services, and overall community stability across vulnerable rural and suburban districts. These intrusions underscore critical systemic gaps in operational technology cybersecurity, patch management protocols, and continuous threat monitoring across decentralized municipal networks. Federal cybersecurity agencies and state regulators face persistent operational hurdles in enforcing mandatory cyber hygiene standards and threat response mechanisms across thousands of independent local utility districts.

It’s the Internet, Stupid

Persuasion  |  Francis Fukuyama

Political theorist Francis Fukuyama identified the internet and digital social media platforms as the primary structural drivers behind the global surge in populist movements and political polarization since 2016. While conventional analyses emphasize economic inequality, nativist backlashes, and elite governance failures, these historical conditions failed to trigger such extreme systemic volatility during earlier decades.

The rapid elimination of legacy media gatekeepers enabled unmonitored digital networks to propagate outlandish conspiratorial narratives, detachment from reality, and deep mistrust in democratic institutions. These information dynamics empowered figures like Donald Trump to dismantle traditional party orthodoxies, forge multi-racial working-class voter coalitions in 2020 and 2024, and weaponize cultural grievances across diverse electorates. Similar dynamics enabled Poland's Law and Justice Party to capture power despite high ethnic homogeneity, demonstrating that media disintermediation transcends national demographics. As online platforms continue displacing institutional political controls, democratic systems face enduring instability driven by algorithmically amplified conspiracy theories rather than traditional socio-economic metrics.

The Unmanned Fires Observer: The Army’s Drone-Age Doctrine Rewrite Is Skipping a Crucial Part

Modern War Institute | Alexei Hoffman

The United States Army announced a force-wide drone doctrine overhaul in March 2026, establishing the 15X military occupational specialty alongside revised manuals for small unmanned aerial systems and counter-drone operations. However, existing fire support publications fail to define a qualified human role for clearing and approving strikes directed by drone sensors.

Ukrainian combat operations in Zaporizhzhia demonstrated that forward single-operator teams consolidate target observation, friendly force tracking, and fire clearance within seconds, bypassing traditional multi-layered chains of command. American force modernization experiments with Project Shrike software similarly compress target identification and call-for-fire generation into automated interfaces. Capstone artillery publications like ATP 3-09.30 and FM 3-09 omit designated qualifications for unmanned fires observers who process sensor feeds directly into strike approvals. Updating doctrine requires formally certifying these observers, establishing low-altitude airspace control graphics under 500 feet, and integrating institutional credentials into JP 3-09 to enable rapid, decentralized fires execution across modern contested battlefields.

The First Clean Signal Is Not Permission to Fire: On Resilience and Governance of Autonomous Systems

Modern War Institute  |  Burak Oktenli

Autonomous weapon systems operating in contested electromagnetic environments risk prematurely restoring lethal engagement permissions upon receiving brief, momentary signal updates following electronic warfare disruption. While Department of Defense governance under DoD Directive 3000.09 and DoD Manual 5000.101 mandates rapid authority revocation during sensor degradation, reauthorization mechanisms lack standardized operational criteria.

Without asymmetric hysteresis protocols requiring persistent data validation before expanding engagement envelopes, tactical platforms remain highly vulnerable to permission flapping and adversarial manipulation. To mitigate these vulnerabilities, service branch acquisition and legal compliance frameworks must encode testable recovery rules demanding multi-modal sensor corroboration or explicit operator re-engagement tokens. Establishing defined degraded-mode operational floors ensures platforms sustain navigation, tracking, or data-relay functions without executing unauthorized lethal fires. Ultimately, governing machine-speed combat logic requires building evidence-persistence thresholds directly into system architectures to prevent hostile electronic attack vectors from exploiting autonomous recovery logic across multi-domain battlefields.

Iran can’t have nuclear weapons but North Korea can? There’s logic here.

Beyond Parallel | Victor Cha

Western non-proliferation policy enforces a strict prohibition against Iran acquiring nuclear weapons while simultaneously accommodating North Korea’s established nuclear arsenal. United States foreign policy treats Tehran’s breakout capability as an unacceptable threat to Middle Eastern stability, whereas Pyongyang’s verified warheads and intercontinental ballistic missiles necessitate a containment and deterrence strategy rather than preventative military intervention.

Disparities in regional alliance structures, regional geography, and the status of nuclear program development drive this fundamental divergence in international strategic logic. Iran's nuclearization risks triggering a multi-state proliferation cascade across the Middle East, involving regional rivals like Saudi Arabia, whereas East Asia's security architecture is already defined by established nuclear dynamics. Consequently, Washington applies preemptive enforcement mechanisms and economic isolation against Iranian enrichment efforts, while relying on forward-deployed forces and extended deterrence to manage North Korea's persistent strategic threat. This operational asymmetry reflects the functional difference between preventing nuclear capability emergence and managing established nuclear state realities.

The ‘Islamic’ Mecca Pact Will Also Strengthen India-Israel Ties

Eurasia Review  |  P. K. Balachandran

Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement on August 7, 2026, establishing a trilateral security alliance driven by diminishing confidence in American West Asian security guarantees. The pact merges Saudi financial assets, Turkish military technology, and Pakistani operational experience to construct an integrated collective defense framework.

This strategic alignment addresses regional vulnerabilities stemming from expanding Israeli operational latitude while accelerating defense-industrial integration, including Pakistani participation in Türkiye's KAAN fighter jet program. In response, Israel is seeking to consolidate a counter-balancing coalition by deepening defense coordination with Greece, Cyprus, the United Arab Emirates, and India. New Delhi views the evolving Ankara-Islamabad alliance with concern over expanded Turkish influence in South Asia, prompting closer Indian maritime and intelligence cooperation with Abu Dhabi and Jerusalem. Consequently, the agreement intensifies regional security competition, accelerating arms procurement and defense-industrial collaboration across West and South Asia.

Taliban has brought Afghanistan near collapse as resistance grows

Asia Times  |  Amin Saikal

The Afghan Taliban faces mounting security threats, internal dissension, and severe economic distress five years after returning to power in Kabul. Relations with Islamabad have degraded into open conflict following Pakistani retaliatory airstrikes against Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan safe havens in northeastern provinces like Badakhshan. Broadened border transit closures alongside the termination of USAID assistance have exacerbated severe domestic poverty and inflation across the country.

Although Russia has formally recognized the regime, Western nations and regional neighbors maintain ambiguous diplomatic contact while withholding broad legitimacy. Armed resistance groups and local dissident factions are expanding operations across northern Afghanistan, though they remain structurally fragmented without a unified command hierarchy or national political platform. Meanwhile, Washington continues demanding the return of Bagram Airbase and US$7 billion worth of abandoned military assets. Absent structural governance reforms or consolidated opposition leadership, the regime remains deeply entrenched yet vulnerable to accelerating regional isolation, persistent cross-border skirmishes, and systemic socio-economic collapse.

Five Years on, Washington Is Failing Afghanistan Again

Foreign Policy | Priyali Sur and Hardin Lang

United States foreign aid reductions to Afghanistan in August 2026 are driving severe reductions in essential healthcare services, leaving vulnerability across maternal and child demographics five years following the 2021 Taliban takeover. Reductions in Agency for International Development (USAID) funding have dismantled critical humanitarian programs previously maintained through international relief organizations.

This sharp decline in bilateral assistance follows shifting policy priorities under the U.S. administration, disrupting foreign assistance structures that previously sustained basic medical operations across Afghan provinces. The sudden withdrawal of funding exacerbates humanitarian instability, compounding existing socio-economic constraints imposed by Taliban governance and international sanctions. Deprived of essential medical supplies and operational support, local clinics face imminent closures, escalating maternal and infant mortality rates across vulnerable populations. The operational vacuum created by U.S. disengagement further weakens regional stability, diminishing Western diplomatic leverage while forcing international humanitarian entities to navigate severe resource shortfalls amid compounding humanitarian emergencies.

The Next Global Economic Crisis Could Be Made in China: How Overcapacity Ends

Foreign Affairs  |  Michael Froman

China's industrial trade surplus reached $1.2 trillion in 2025, driving severe global economic imbalances and triggering aggressive protectionist responses across international markets. Beijing currently controls 30 percent of global manufacturing output through state-directed credit and extensive industrial subsidies, forcing unprofitable domestic enterprises into destructive, margin-slashing export price wars referred to internally as involution.

This persistent reliance on aggressive export growth under China's dual circulation strategy has overwhelmed the global market's structural capacity to absorb excess production. The resulting surge of cheap manufactured goods severely threatens key industrial sectors in advanced trading partners like Germany and the broader EU, where local autoworker job cuts have reached historical highs. To stem this influx, European nations are enacting 35.3 percent electric vehicle duties, considering new local content requirements, and joining the U.S.-led Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement. Without an immediate domestic shift toward consumption-led economic rebalancing, Beijing risks prompting widespread market closures and a systemic global crisis.

Pentagon scrutinizes foreign research ties at 30 US academic institutions

Military Times  |  Eve Sampson

The United States Department of Defense ordered 30 American academic institutions on August 17, 2026, to conduct comprehensive security audits of their international research and financial ties by August 31, 2026, or forfeit eligibility for future federal research funding. The directive targets joint ventures with sensitive international entities and rebranded Confucius Institutes to prevent illicit technology transfers to foreign adversaries.

This enforcement drive operationalizes Section 1286 of the fiscal 2019 National Defense Authorization Act, establishing strict oversight protocols to safeguard defense-critical scientific developments. The underlying restriction list currently designates 130 entities across China, Russia, and Iran, encompassing electronic measurement laboratories and state-run scientific research facilities. Beginning in fiscal 2026, statutory prohibitions bar defense funding for fundamental research involving listed organizations or their affiliated personnel. This regulatory expansion addresses growing vulnerabilities surrounding dual-use technology, specifically mitigating risks demonstrated by Chinese military researchers utilizing American artificial intelligence models to enhance domestic defense systems.

Top Chinese general invokes Jiang to highlight importance of loyalty in military

South China Morning Post | Xinlu Liang

China’s most senior general Zhang Shengmin invoked former president Jiang Zemin’s response to the 1991 Gulf War and the Soviet collapse to reinforce absolute Communist Party control and ideological purity over the People’s Liberation Army. Writing in the People's Daily, the Central Military Commission vice-chairman highlighted Jiang's historic rejection of military depoliticisation while emphasizing technical modernization over troop numbers.

This ideological consolidation comes amid ongoing high-profile anti-corruption investigations that leave only General Zhang and President Xi Jinping on the military command body. Historical precedents established during the 1990s, including slashing 500,000 personnel in 1997 to fund advanced computer-guided weaponry, navy, air force, and space programs, serve as the operational framework for current political rectification campaigns. The military transition replaced traditional conscripts with technical specialists and established emergency mobile units designed for deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. As the armed forces approach their centenary next August, Beijing aims to accelerate transformation into a world-class force while maintaining absolute political loyalty.

China Wants to Shape What the World’s A.I. Knows

The New York Times  |  David Pierson, Berry Wang

China is actively seeking to become a leading global supplier of artificial intelligence training data to counter Western ideological dominance in large language models. Early tests conducted in 2023 by researchers at the Beijing Institute of Technology revealed that models like ChatGPT generated incorrect cultural references—such as misidentifying NBA star Yao Ming—and produced political commentary that Beijing viewed as biased.

This technological gap presents a strategic vulnerability for the Chinese Communist Party, as English-dominated data sets risk embedding Western perspectives on sensitive geopolitical topics, including human rights and the status of Taiwan, into global AI infrastructure. To mitigate these perceived narrative risks and enhance its domestic AI capabilities, Chinese policymakers aim to flood international data pipelines with curated Chinese-language text, images, and videos. By exporting systematically aligned training datasets alongside commercial models, Beijing intends to shape how global chatbots perceive Chinese history, state policy, and international relations.