16 July 2026

A Major Move by India

Geopolitical Futures | George Friedman

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi secured pivotal economic and defence cooperation agreements with Japan, Indonesia, Australia, and New Zealand this month to counter Chinese regional dominance. This diplomatic expansion builds on previous security discussions with Vietnam to establish a powerful coalition capable of restricting China's maritime access to critical global shipping lanes.

The Geography Of Terrorism Has Shifted

Eurasia Review  |  Rohan Gunaratna

The Islamic State's operational center has shifted to Sub-Saharan Africa, where the group claimed nearly 90% of its global attacks in the first half of 2026. This geographic realignment has resulted in unprecedented lethality, with 138 attacks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo causing 769 casualties and 250 attacks in Nigeria causing 696 casualties.

Why Nepal's GenZ Is Again On Streets Against PM They Elected Just Months Ago

MSN | Sanstuti Nath

Nepalese youth protesters from the Generation Z demographic have returned to the streets in large numbers to demonstrate against the country's Prime Minister. This widespread public mobilization occurs only months after these same young voters actively participated in electing the current leader to office, signaling a rapid collapse of political trust.

The Wrong Way To Compete With China in Biotech

Manual Input  |  Jennifer Crook, Steve A Johnson

The United States government is restricting capital and market access to counter China's expanding biotechnology sector, risking domestic pharmaceutical security. Beijing now controls over 30 percent of global drug development, while the American share has declined to 37 percent. This power shift stems from decades of systematic state subsidies aimed at dominating global active pharmaceutical ingredient manufacturing.

The Guardian view on Trump and Tehran: everyone loses when the US and Iran overplay their hands

The Guardian

Tehran's closure of the strait of Hormuz has reignited military hostilities with the United States, threatening global energy corridors and compounding severe humanitarian crises in Somalia and Afghanistan. Renewed military strikes erupted after Iran targeted transit vessels, prompting immediate American retaliatory strikes that effectively collapsed a recently signed bilateral memorandum of understanding.

Trump’s Iran Deal Has Collapsed, Leaving the U.S. With Few Good Options

Council on Foreign Relations  |  Max Boot

President Donald Trump reinstated the United States blockade on Iranian oil and threatened a 20 percent cargo toll after Iran closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz. This rapid escalation followed intense retaliatory airstrikes between both nations, effectively collapsing the bilateral memorandum of understanding signed at Versailles on June 18.

Who Should Shape the Future of Development, and How?

Center for Strategic and International Studies  |  Andrew Friedman, Hadeil Ali

The Trump administration’s dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) in January 2025 and subsequent global official development assistance cuts of $56 billion have severely disrupted international development. These funding reductions have forced over 70 percent of surveyed civil society organizations to lay off staff, with nearly 40 percent losing at least 31 percent of their workforce.

The Unipolar Moment

Foreign Affairs  |  Charles Krauthammer

The United States emerged as the sole global superpower following the sudden collapse of the Soviet Union, establishing an unprecedented unipolar international structure. This sudden geopolitical shift immediately challenged prevailing academic assumptions that the post-Cold War era would naturally transition into a stable, multipolar system of widely dispersed regional powers.

How to Keep Iran Out of the Strait of Hormuz

National Interest  |  Mark Kimmitt

The United States launched heavy airstrikes against eighty Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets on July 7, escalating to ninety targets on July 8, to contest Iranian efforts to impose hegemonic control over the Strait of Hormuz. These formidable military actions responded to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels, signaling a restart of the US-Iran War.

America and Iran’s Strange Moment of Opportunity

Foreign Affairs  |  Ali Vaez

The American and Israeli militaries have waged a full-scale war against the Islamic Republic of Iran over the last four months, resulting in the targeted assassination of much of the country's political and military leadership. This intense military campaign prompted immediate retaliation from Iran, which launched direct attacks against United States military bases, infrastructure in Gulf Arab states, and Israel.

Iran hits two UAE tankers in Strait of Hormuz as US carries out third night of strikes

BBC News  |  Peter Hoskins, Cai Pigliucci

The United States military conducted its third consecutive night of precision airstrikes against Iranian coastal defences, missile sites, and maritime capabilities to secure the Strait of Hormuz. This escalation followed an Iranian cruise missile attack on two United Arab Emirates tankers, which killed one crew member and injured eight others.

How Ukraine’s Drone Campaign Is Testing Russia’s Oil Industry

The National Interest  |  Paul J. Saunders, Sergey Vakulenko

Ukraine’s drone campaign targeting Russian refineries, fuel depots, and energy infrastructure is actively testing the resilience of Moscow's primary economic engine. These persistent aerial attacks have successfully reduced refining capacity and triggered localized fuel shortages across the country, directly threatening the Kremlin's ability to fund its ongoing military operations.

UK and EU strike Russian cyber networks with new sanctions

Gov.uk

The United Kingdom and the European Union launched their first joint cyber sanctions package on 13 July 2026, targeting 24 Russian individuals and entities linked to malicious hybrid operations. This coordinated action attributes a failed cyber-attack against Poland’s electricity grid, which threatened power for 500,000 citizens, to the Russian Federal Security Service Centre 16.

Perspectives on Terrorism

Perspectives on Terrorism, 2026, v.20, no. 2 

  • Lethal Adaptation or Overpriced Junk? A Practitioner-Informed Assessment of Geospatial-Enabled Threats by Non-State Adversaries
  • Explaining Terrorism in Terms of INUS Conditions
  • Does Pakistan Have a “Madrassah Problem”?
  • Defining Terrorism: Is There Anything New? A Qualitative Analysis of 470 Definitions
  • Referral Pathways and Clinical Profiles among Individuals Involved in Violent Extremism and Violent Nihilism
  • AI as Decision Support in P/CVE Evaluation: Opportunities, Limits, and Risks
  • Bibliography: Legitimisation and Delegitimisation of Terrorism

Unrestricted Warfare: How Adversarial Information Operations Exploit Liberal Democracies

Small Wars Journal | Yaniv Regev

Hamas, Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah are exploiting liberal democracies' commitment to free expression by deploying coordinated information operations to erode domestic political will during conflicts. These non-liberal actors leverage open media environments to bypass military defeats and directly target the public sphere of democratic adversaries, neutralizing their conventional military superiority.

Ukraine Finally Has a Theory of Victory. Will It Work?

Foreign Policy | Christian Caryl

Ukraine has formulated a comprehensive theory of victory against Russia by leveraging long-range missile capabilities and deep strikes to target critical infrastructure, including oil refineries and military assets in Crimea. This strategic shift aims to disrupt Russian logistics, degrade Moscow's economic engine, and alter the Kremlin's cost-benefit analysis regarding the prolonged conflict.

How Ukraine Figured Out Trump World

Foreign Policy | Ravi Agrawal

Dmytro Kuleba, the former Ukrainian Foreign Minister, has detailed Ukraine's strategic efforts to navigate the shifting diplomatic and military policies of the second Trump administration. This diplomatic outreach aims to secure vital U.S. military assistance and maintain critical international support amidst the ongoing war with Russia. Kyiv's proactive engagement reflects a broader necessity to align Ukrainian survival with Washington's evolving geopolitical priorities, particularly regarding future NATO integration and critical air defence capabilities like Patriot missile systems.

Beyond Bagamoyo: East Africa’s Indian Ocean Gateway And The Governance Of Afro-Asian Connectivity

Eurasia Review  |  Mercy Melilau Kotikash

East Africa's emerging regional connectivity architecture, comprising the Dar es Salaam port expansion, the proposed Bagamoyo port, and the TAZARA railway revival, is linking the Indian Ocean to Central Africa's mineral-rich interior. This integrated logistics network connects critical transition minerals directly to expanding Asian markets, establishing a vital maritime bridge across the western Indian Ocean.

The End of Reading Is Here

The Atlantic | Rose Horowitch

King Ptolemy I of Egypt established the Library of Alexandria twenty-three hundred years ago to safeguard the sum total of humanity's written knowledge, initiating a historic era of scholarship. However, modern structural shifts suggest this pursuit of universal literacy may ultimately prove to be a short, temporary anomaly in human history.

OPEC Is No Longer Relevant in a Changing Energy World

National Interest  |  Ellen R. Wald

The United States and China are actively reshaping global energy markets in 2026, severely eroding the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) ability to influence oil prices. Record American production of 13.5 million barrels per day and strategic Chinese demand reductions of 4 million barrels per day have neutralized traditional supply-side market interventions.

Iran’s Cyber Threat: What’s Real, What’s Noise and What Comes Ahead

Center for Strategic and International Studies  |  Lauryn Williams, Nikita Shah, Kuhu Badgi

Iran’s cyber threat capabilities and future digital operations are analyzed in a new podcast episode released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies on April 1, 2026. This production, titled Cache Me If You Can, features researchers Lauryn Williams, Nikita Shah, and Kuhu Badgi evaluating state-sponsored digital warfare.

Who Fires The Shot? Closing The Authority Gap In Indo-Pacific Autonomous Warfare

Eurasia Review  |  Burak Oktenli

Autonomous military systems deployed by the United States, Australia, Japan, and India are rapidly integrating across Indo-Pacific coalitions, yet these partners lack a unified doctrine on who authorizes lethal force. This critical authority gap creates severe sovereignty and legal challenges that existing technical data standards cannot resolve, threatening coalition cohesion during high-speed crises.

Is a Solution for Turkey’s S-400 Problem Finally in Sight?

National Interest  |  Peter Suciu

Turkey is negotiating with Russia to transfer its two S-400 Triumf air defense batteries to a Gulf nation to secure readmission into the US-led F-35 Lightning II fighter program. This potential transaction aims to resolve a decade-long diplomatic impasse that triggered Washington to expel Ankara from the joint strike fighter initiative in 2019.

Shaping the Rules Around Autonomous Weapons

FP Analytics

The United Nations Group of Governmental Experts on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems faces a critical September 2026 deadline to establish binding international regulations before rapid technological advancements outpace policy frameworks. This regulatory push coincides with a massive global surge in military artificial intelligence integration, where states are rapidly fielding uncrewed platforms to gain decisive battlefield advantages.

Why navies still matter in the age of drones

ASPI Strategist  |  Sean Andrews

Maritime drones are disrupting modern naval operations in the Black Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, yet they remain incapable of achieving decisive sea control or replacing traditional navies. While cheap, expendable drones can damage billion-dollar warships and harass trade routes, they cannot secure shipping lanes, project sovereignty, or uphold maritime order.

15 July 2026

PIA’s Sale and the Debt Left Behind

Brief.pk

Pakistan's privatisation of Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) represents a critical shift in how the current government manages state-owned assets to mitigate severe financial losses. This high-stakes sale of the national carrier serves as a major test of public liability, private investment integration, and the concentration of economic power.

China’s Strategic Corridor in Pakistan: Progress, Dependency, and the Uncertain Future of CPEC

Institute for Security and Development Policy

The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has transitioned into a long-term mechanism of strategic influence, embedding Beijing within Islamabad’s economic and political architecture. This integration deepens Pakistan's structural dependency on Chinese finance, technology, and security arrangements while advancing China's broader Eurasian ambitions through the critical Gwadar Port. Launched formally in 2015 as a flagship Belt and Road Initiative project, the corridor initially focused on addressing chronic energy shortages and expanding transport infrastructure during Phase I.

Forging the Arsenal Corridor: China–Pakistan Defense Integration and the New Strategic Supply Chain

Institute for Security and Development Policy

China’s military partnership with Pakistan has transitioned from a traditional supplier-recipient relationship into a deeply integrated strategic defense alliance. This structural recalibration equips Islamabad with advanced fighter aircraft, layered air defenses, and next-generation naval platforms to offset India's conventional military superiority and secure critical maritime corridors. The bilateral cooperation aligns with Beijing's broader Belt and Road Initiative and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, embedding Pakistan into a shared military-industrial ecosystem.

9th Aviation Brigade Likely Validates Manned-Unmanned Teaming Combat Methods

China Aerospace Studies Institute

The People’s Liberation Army Air Force has advanced its manned-unmanned teaming capabilities by validating new combat methods designed to integrate piloted fighter jets with autonomous systems. Specifically, the 9th Aviation Brigade based at Wuhu Air Base in Anhui Province supported validation efforts for J-20 stealth fighters executing coordinated penetration operations.

Trump's Iran Blunder Shows Strategy Can Defeat Firepower

Bloomberg  |  Hal Brands

The United States-Iran conflict has exposed the severe limitations of military firepower when deployed without a coherent long-term strategy. Tehran executed a highly deliberate plan to survive by choking the global economy, whereas Washington failed to formulate any viable counter-strategy despite possessing overwhelming material and financial superiority in the Persian Gulf.

Iran ceasefire was always going to break – here’s why

The Conversation

The United States and Iran have resumed direct military conflict in the Middle East less than a month after signing a ceasefire agreement at Versailles. Following Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, Washington launched “punishment” strikes on more than 80 targets, prompting retaliatory strikes on American bases in Bahrain and Kuwait.

Hard-Liners in Iran Want to Keep Fighting America

The New York Times  |  Neil MacFarquhar

Iranian ultra-hard-liners are demanding a continued military confrontation with the United States following a US-Israeli campaign in February that decapitated Tehran's leadership. This political maneuvering seeks to narrow the space for diplomatic compromise by portraying negotiations as strategically dangerous. The underlying operational friction stems from contested control over vital shipping lanes passing through the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

Why Trump’s nuclear blackmail of Iran failed spectacularly

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

On April 7, 2026, US President Donald Trump issued an implicit nuclear threat against Iran on Truth Social, demanding an immediate ceasefire during the US-Israeli war. This escalating coercive rhetoric aimed to force Tehran into submission after intensive conventional military campaigns failed to break the strategic blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Europe’s New German Question

Project Syndicate  |  Marco Buti, Francesco Nicoli

Germany and other European Union member states are rapidly increasing unilateral defense spending to secure the continent, but this isolated approach risks perpetuating a fragmented, outdated defense architecture. This lack of coordination threatens to leave the bloc permanently dependent on the United States for critical military assets and security guarantees.

Europe: a great power in the making

Engelsberg Ideas | Dimitar Bechev

European Union member states are rapidly accelerating their militarisation and economic defences to counter existential security threats from Russia and industrial overcapacity from China. This strategic shift marks a decisive departure from traditional civilian governance toward active power politics as the United States becomes an increasingly unreliable security partner.