The Missing Third Tier In Pakistan’s Federal System

Eurasia Review | Sahibzada Muhammad Usman

Pakistan's 18th Constitutional Amendment and Seventh NFC Award transferred 57.5% of the divisible tax pool to provinces alongside 47 devolved subjects, yet failed to empower local municipal authorities. This fiscal structure created severe federal imbalances in the FY 2026–27 budget, where gross receipts of Rs 20.60 trillion leave net federal revenues at Rs 11.75 trillion after Rs 8.85 trillion in provincial transfers.

Debt servicing strains Islamabad's treasury balance. Mandatory liabilities including Rs 8.05 trillion in interest payments, Rs 3 trillion for defence affairs, and Rs 1.17 trillion for pensions total Rs 12.2 trillion, exceeding net federal revenue receipts. World Bank data indicates local government expenditure collapsed from 10% of total public spending in 2005 to under 5% by 2024. While Article 140A mandates local administrative autonomy, provincial secretariats recentralized financial authority. Completing constitutional decentralization requires binding, formula-based transfers directly to elected district and municipal councils.

China's Proxy Conflicts: Is World War III Upon Us?

Gatestone Institute | Gordon G. Chang

Chinese Communist Party Chairman Xi Jinping is actively waging proxy conflicts across three continents to challenge the post-World War II American international order. Rather than treating disparate regional crises as isolated transactional disputes, the Western alliance faces an interconnected strategic offensive supported by joint Sino-Russian efforts in Europe and the Middle East.

Beijing deliberately leverages Maoist doctrine to encircle Western influence through peripheral pressure in critical operational theaters like Ukraine. This systematic encirclement strategy mirrors late 1930s escalation dynamics where separate regional conflicts rapidly consolidated into full-scale global war. Deterrence fails when caution is misread as weakness. Moscow and Beijing now possess existential incentives to maintain high-intensity attrition warfare, escalating risks that desperate leadership could resort to strategic weapons. Suppressing these expanding regional proxy contests requires direct confrontation against Chinese strategic support networks before distinct theater engagements lose operational boundaries entirely.

Elemental Leverage: How the United States Can Stop China’s Rare-Earths Squeeze Before the Next Crisis

CIMSEC | Josh Richards, Joseph Hanacek

Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang in August 2025 warned Beijing would restrict rare-earth exports if Washington tightened advanced technology controls, leveraging China’s monopoly over critical defense and clean-energy supply chains. China currently controls approximately 70 percent of global rare-earth mining, 90 percent of separation processing, and over 90 percent of high-performance magnet manufacturing.

Beijing uses this industrial asymmetry to exert geopolitical pressure. Domestic operations like California’s Mountain Pass Mine still remain dependent on overseas midstream processing despite extracting raw concentrates. To counter this vulnerability before a potential cross-strait conflict, the United States must execute a multi-track strategy focused on domestic refining, allied sourcing compacts, expedited permitting, and strategic reserves. Accelerating midstream processing is vital. Expanding initiatives through the Defense Production Act, the Minerals Security Partnership, and advanced recycling frameworks will secure the supply of vital elements like neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium against future market coercion.

The New Chinese Way of Cyberwar: How Beijing Will Weaponize Digital Chokepoints

Foreign Affairs | Anne Neuberger

Chinese state-sponsored hackers have compromised United States communications, energy, and transportation infrastructure to pre-position capabilities for strategic digital sabotage. These intrusions threaten electrical blackouts, contaminated municipal water supplies, and delayed military mobilisations by exploiting structural asymmetries between centralised authoritarian cyberdefenses in China and decentralised, privately owned American utilities.

Legacy operational technology running across 4,500 public water systems and 3,000 electric utilities creates broad exposure. Offensive AI models amplify these risks exponentially. The vulnerability is severe. To counter these footholds, Washington must establish air-gapped national enclaves run by the Department of Energy and Department of Commerce, allowing infrastructure operators to deploy AI digital twins that stress-test networks and feed actionable patches into the White House Gold Eagle initiative. Establishing legal safe harbour protection alongside federal grant pools will incentivise private participation. As outlined in Foreign Affairs, proactive AI defence simulations represent the critical pathway to secure infrastructure before digital chokepoints trigger theatre-wide paralysis.

Iran’s proxy money machine: How the Houthis built a multibillion-dollar network despite US sanctions

Fox News | Efrat Lachter

Yemen’s Houthi movement has established a multibillion-dollar illicit financial network, leveraging Iranian support, illicit fuel smuggling, and commercial taxation to evade US sanctions. This clandestine financial infrastructure sustains high-tempo maritime strike campaigns against commercial shipping corridors in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait. Shadow banking networks and front companies across Middle Eastern jurisdictions provide resilient funding streams independent of formal banking oversight.

Western sanctions fail to sever these revenue channels. Consequently, regional trade flows remain vulnerable to continuous anti-ship ballistic missile and uncrewed aerial vehicle attacks. The Houthis divert domestic port revenues, charge transit fees, and utilise unregulated exchange houses to move capital. Iranian Quds Force facilitators orchestrate oil shipments, converting petroleum revenues into operational funding for advanced weaponry. Sanctions enforcement faces structural friction against decentralized, non-state financial architectures. The group's financial independence secures long-term military endurance, guaranteeing prolonged instability across critical international maritime chokepoints.

There’s nowhere to hide on the battlefield anymore

Washington Post | Elaine McCusker, Brady Africk

Commercial satellite imagery in low Earth orbit allows foreign adversaries like Iran to target United States military bases with unprecedented accuracy. Enemy forces leverage widely accessible orbital platforms to monitor American troop movements, airfield infrastructure, and tactical deployments across forward operational theaters. Low Earth orbit is crammed with satellites.

This continuous satellite surveillance eliminates traditional military concealment, exposing stationary facilities and vulnerable assets to precision strikes. To counter this pervasive intelligence gathering, the United States Department of Defense must overhaul tactical doctrine by implementing signature management, physical camouflage, and rapid dispersal techniques. Furthermore, operational planners must integrate defensive counter-space measures alongside commercial imagery monitoring to protect critical infrastructure. As commercial capabilities expand globally, denying persistent overhead vision requires combining passive masking with active threat countermeasures. Military forces unable to obscure their movements risk complete exposure to real-time targeting by adversarial forces.

For the United States, the Autonomous Battlefield Must Have a Tether

Real Clear Defense | Jack Schwencke

The United States Air Force faces a critical requirement to embed explicit assured communications mandates into its Collaborative Combat Aircraft Increment 2 program to maintain operational control over autonomous weapons systems. Under Department of Defense Directive 3000.09, uncrewed platforms exceeding authorization boundaries must either terminate engagements or obtain operator input.

Without assured datalinks, uncrewed platforms are forced into self-termination rather than retaining combat utility in contested environments. Defense vendors are responding rapidly to satisfy this requirement. In August 2026, Joby acquired Resonant Sciences for $500 million to pair commercially derived autonomy with military-grade radio frequency mission systems. Concurrently, Rohde and Schwarz teamed with Boeing to integrate the NEMACS directional communications suite onto the MQ-28 Ghost Bat, while SRC demonstrated multi-function arrays during live-fire testing. Although Increment 2 mission vectors remain ambiguous under concept refinement contracts, air planners must establish an explicit communications tether to prevent losing command authority.

Air Force Plans Hundreds of Autonomous Fighter and ISR Drones by 2032

Air & Space Forces Magazine | Stephen Losey

The United States Air Force plans to field hundreds of autonomous fighter and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance drones by 2032. This force design centers on operationalizing Collaborative Combat Aircraft and Multi-Mission Autonomous platforms to augment manned combat fleets. High-density air defense networks and escalating regional peer competition necessitate massed, uncrewed platforms capable of distributing sensor and strike nodes across contested theaters.

The shift represents a fundamental evolution in tactical airpower doctrine and force structure. Mass matters in modern conflict. Integrating automated combat platforms expands payload capacity and operational reach while lowering aircrew risk during high-threat penetrating sorties. Furthermore, procurement timelines and industrial manufacturing scaling remain pivotal variables determining whether full fleet integration is achievable within the decade. As the service transitions these autonomous systems from development into frontline operational units, command-and-control architectures must adapt to handle rapid human-machine teaming across disputed airspace.

How to fix NATO’s fatal flaw

The Hill | Harlan Ullman

Russian hybrid warfare operations, including recurring airspace incursions by military drones and persistent cyber campaigns, threaten NATO by exploiting ambiguity in the alliance's Article Five collective defense guarantee. Romania has reported 26 airspace violations and intercepted four Russian drones, while an unexploded drone struck Germany's Leipzig/Halle Airport on Aug.

4. These sub-threshold active measures deliberately circumvent traditional military assault definitions originally conceived during the Cold War. The alliance lacks a unified counter-hybrid framework. Despite operating 30 specialized Centers of Excellence, NATO leaves responses to Russian disinformation, St. Petersburg troll operations like the Internet Research Agency, and cyber breaches entirely to individual member states. To blunt Moscow's escalating gray-zone campaign, recommendations call on the Supreme Allied Commander Europe to create a dedicated special services unit, shoot down all intruding Russian aerial platforms, expand air policing, and leverage strategic military deployments as active influence operations.

In Russia’s Long Drone Shadow

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Pavlo Zvenyhorodskyi

Russian long-range drone incursions into North Atlantic Treaty Organization airspace have expanded across Europe, testing allied defense readiness and public psychological resilience. In September 2025, approximately two dozen Russian drones crossed into Poland, forcing the temporary closure of four airports, including Warsaw Chopin Airport. Moscow now produces up to 400 long-range Geran-2 drones daily at $30,000 to $50,000 each.

Relying on expensive fighter jet missiles to intercept these low-cost systems threatens to rapidly deplete Western stockpiles. NATO launched Operation Eastern Sentry and announced the $40 billion Drone Edge initiative, while the European Union introduced the European Drone Defence Initiative. Interception capacity remains severely constrained. European responses suffer from institutional fragmentation and fail to build comprehensive public shelter infrastructure or emergency alert systems. European governments, backed by a €90 billion loan commitment for 2026–2027, must integrate Ukraine's battle-tested air defense architecture to establish effective long-term strategic deterrence.

Putin Will Not Yield: Pressure and Pain Won’t Sap Russia’s Resolve in Ukraine

Foreign Affairs | Michael Kimmage, Maria Lipman

Russian President Vladimir Putin is expanding military operations in Ukraine despite mounting economic costs, inflation, and Ukrainian deep strikes targeting Russian infrastructure. CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s recent diplomatic visit to Moscow failed to secure concessions from the Kremlin. The Russian regime has instead intensified internal repression, barring the antiwar Yabloko political party from parliamentary elections and imprisoning opposition figure Lev Shlosberg for 11 years.

Domestic political resistance remains virtually non-existent. Over a quarter century of centralised control over state media, oligarchs, and the Russian Orthodox Church has insulated Putinism from public discontent. Former banker Andrey Klepach was dismissed from a state-controlled development bank in August after acknowledging technological losses to Ukraine. While Levada Institute polling from August 9 shows growing public preference for peace negotiations, Putin views subjugating Ukraine as integral to state sovereignty. The autocrat faces no internal precarity. Armed with sufficient manpower and missile production, Moscow continues its war of attrition alongside European sabotage operations.

Why a fresh wave of North Korean soldiers may fight in Russia's war in Ukraine

BBC | Quentin Sommerville

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warns that up to 50,000 North Korean troops could deploy to support Russian military operations, expanding Pyongyang's existing footprint of 8,500 personnel stationed along the Kursk frontier. This expansion follows initial counter-offensive operations in late 2024, where North Korean forces suffered approximately 3,000 casualties while repelling Ukrainian advances.

Ukrainian intelligence confirms these units, drawn from the elite Storm Corps, currently operate under Russia's "North" Group of Forces to secure state borders rather than conducting direct assault actions. Modern drone warfare rapidly adapted their infantry tactics after heavy initial losses in infantry wave attacks. Pyongyang has extracted immense capital from this operational partnership. Military transfers and troop deployments yielded nearly $10 billion, representing one-third of North Korea's annual GDP. This revenue shift reduces Pyongyang's historical reliance on Beijing while providing its armed forces with invaluable experience in modern high-intensity warfare. Moscow seeks additional foreign manpower to offset monthly personnel deficits exceeding 6,000 soldiers.

Potential for Russia Escalating War Continues

The Jamestown Foundation | Richard Arnold

Russian military forces may initiate expanded kinetic operations against Ukraine following the State Duma elections scheduled for September 18–20. Moscow aims to prevent public protests before voting concludes, potentially enabling a subsequent mobilization order or a renewed offensive from Belarus toward Kyiv. Hybrid warfare across Europe is intensifying rapidly.

Kremlin operatives have targeted European security through acts of sabotage and destabilization, including an armed drone sighting near Leipzig/Halle airport and a thwarted FSB assassination plot in Poland. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov threatened the United Kingdom after Ukrainian forces used BAE Systems Callen-Lenz drones against oil refineries in Volgograd and Yaroslavl. Simultaneously, Central Intelligence Agency warnings indicate potential Russian false-flag attacks against infrastructure in Poland or the Baltic states to establish a corridor to Kaliningrad. These operations reflect broader goals to fracture NATO and European Union cohesion following interference attempts in Moldova. Moscow continues prioritizing covert disruption over direct military engagement.

The West is losing two wars at once

UnHerd | Wolfgang Munchau

Houthi militants have seized the strategic Yemeni port of Mokha and Perim Island in the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, threatening maritime transit where 400,000 barrels of Saudi oil flow daily. This escalation pushed Brent crude to $100 per barrel, delivering windfall revenues to energy-exporter Russia as its ground forces advance further across the Donbas region.

Elevated oil prices directly bolster Moscow's war economy while exacerbating Western inflationary pressures and depleting European heating gas reserves. Simultaneously, Western forces face severe air defense interceptor shortages and structural defense industrial bottlenecks. Western supply chains are overstretched. Russia now produces 3.4 million large howitzer shells annually, substantially outstripping the European Union's projected capacity of 2 million. Meanwhile, the British Army is reduced to 75,000 troops. Despite claims that the EU economy is nine to 10 times larger than Russia's, purchasing power parities and military output reveal a widening operational deficit for Western-backed efforts across both fronts.

Russian Psychological Operations and Informational Warfare in the Middle East and North Africa

Irregular Warfare Initiative | Autumn Perkey

Russian state-backed media networks like RT Arabic and Sputnik Arabic are expanding psychological operations across the Middle East and North Africa by framing Western foreign policy as destabilizing. Following Moscow's 2015 military intervention in Syria, these outlets established deep distribution channels that now generate over 180 daily social media posts targeting regional audiences.

This structural access allows Russia to exploit existing local grievances without generating entirely novel narratives. In Iraq, a 2015 survey revealed that 44 percent of the population watched RT Arabic daily. Disinformation converts rapidly into physical actions. Operations like the Doppelganger campaign in Israel and rumors driving the October 29, 2024 riot at Makhachkala Airport demonstrate how digital manipulation triggers real-world mobilization. By presenting the United States as an unreliable partner, Russia seeks to erode Western influence, divert international focus from Ukraine, and consolidate its regional strategic foothold.

Why My Kyiv Visit Worried Me So Much

Foreign Policy | Ravi Agrawal

On September 14, 2026, Foreign Policy’s editor-in-chief reported from Kyiv on the evolving mood in Ukraine and the escalating operational realities shaping the future of war. Intensified Russian drone attacks and targeted strikes on critical transit networks, including railway lines, highlight Moscow's persistent strategy to disrupt Ukrainian strategic mobility and Western diplomatic access.

Russian strikes continue targeting Ukrainian logistics. This shift in Russian drone warfare underlines growing vulnerabilities across Ukraine's civilian and military infrastructure during high-level foreign visits. Consequently, the evolving air defense environment and continuous long-range aerial bombardment present severe operational challenges for Ukrainian resistance and Western support mechanisms. The situation demonstrates how unmanned aerial systems continue to redefine strategic deterrence, tactical transport resilience, and the broader geopolitical calculus in Eastern Europe. Unresolved tensions surrounding air defense capacity, military aid delivery, and Russia's long-term attrition strategy remain central to the war's trajectory as both sides adapt to persistent drone threats.

Middle power AI agency: Preserving choice between the United States and China

Brookings Institution | Douglas A. Rediker

Middle powers including Europe, Japan, and South Korea face severe geopolitical subordination unless they collectively preserve independent capabilities across critical physical and industrial artificial intelligence sectors. As U.S. capital spending on infrastructure approaches $700 billion in 2026 and Chinese industrial robot installations reach 54% of global volume, scattered national projects fail to alter the strategic balance.

Superpower technological monopolies risk converting superficial national sovereignty into structural reliance. To prevent unilateral coercion or supply chain embargoes, non-superpower nations must pursue a strategy of modular sovereignty by pooling scale-intensive compute, foundation models, and procurement commitments. A modular strategy maintains resilience amid escalating technological competition. This approach allows these states to retain control over sensitive deployments in critical infrastructure, healthcare, defence sustainment, and telecommunications. Rather than seeking autarky or confronting Washington and Beijing, pooled middle-power purchasing leverages shared assets into operational data and bargaining power.

Operationalizing AI Sovereignty Through Agency, Interoperability, and Openness

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Luca Belli

The CyberBRICS project at FGV Law School has introduced an operational model for artificial intelligence sovereignty based on the Key AI Sovereignty Enablers framework. Designed to address persistent technological dependencies, this approach structures digital self-determination around three core pillars: agency, interoperability, and strategic openness. Westphalian models of full-stack tech autonomy remain logistically unviable due to capital intensity and specialised supply chains.

Agency establishes a state's capacity to choose providers and adapt systems under constraint. Technical interoperability mitigates vendor lock-in through open standards and portable data architecture. Strategic openness lowers market entry barriers while preventing predatory extraction by dominant foreign technology platforms. The framework evaluates eight critical technology layers, ranging from hardware and energy resources to humanware and cybersecurity safeguards. Collective capacity building presents a viable alternative to total autarky. Evaluating sovereign initiatives against these functional criteria prevents cosmetic digital policies while expanding strategic autonomy.

From Whisper to Weapon: Understanding the Rumor Lifecycle

Small Wars Journal | Douglas Wilbur

Information warfare operations in crisis environments like the 2023 Maui wildfires demonstrate that unverified rumors evolve through a predictable five-stage lifecycle consisting of emergence, amplification, integration, adaptation, and persistence or decline. During emergence, psychological anxiety surrounding unexplained threats generates speculative claims that gain immediate social traction without requiring intentional deception by hostile actors.

These initial explanations spread rapidly during amplification as emotional triggers, novel framing, and influential media outlets broaden their reach beyond the original event horizon. Integration follows when rumors connect directly to pre-existing political grievances or institutional distrust, rendering factual corrections largely ineffective against entrenched worldviews. Adaptability remains operational necessity. As external stressors or official debunks emerge, claims modify secondary details while preserving their underlying core narratives. Ultimately, persistent rumors embed deeply into social identities, permanently altering how target audiences interpret subsequent events, evaluate official information, assess source credibility, and assign responsibility during future high-uncertainty scenarios.

China must be properly scared for an AI slowdown to work

Asia Times | Noah Smith

Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon sparked global public debate in September 2026 after resigning over concerns that competitive racing toward artificial superintelligence poses existential human extinction risks. Following Coxon’s warnings, prominent AI leaders including Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, and xAI’s Elon Musk endorsed pacing frontier AI development to ensure safety protocols keep pace with technological advancement.

Existential threat scenarios primarily focus on superintelligent systems designing lethal bioweapons or executing autonomous recursive self-improvement without human oversight. Specialised domain experts consistently underestimate how rapidly frontier artificial intelligence can master complex fields like biological modelling. However, unilateral Western safety slowdowns encounter severe strategic obstacles. American technology executives fear that halting domestic capability development will simply allow Chinese competitors to achieve artificial superintelligence unhindered. Without verifiable bilateral agreement, unilateral deceleration creates severe geopolitical vulnerabilities. Meaningful global AI governance therefore requires persuading Chinese political leadership that uncontrolled superintelligence presents a shared existential threat to both powers.

When Policy and War Collapse Into One: Fighting in the Sixth Domain

The Cipher Brief | Christopher Ahlberg

Artificial intelligence-driven conflict in the sixth domain represents a fundamental shift toward machine-versus-machine warfare where learning velocity and inference speed supersede physical force projection. Military systems operating in this environment collapse planning, targeting, and execution into continuous feedback loops that render human-in-the-loop doctrines obsolete handicaps. Command of inference dictates operational success.

Forces delegating full operational authority to autonomous systems gain decisive advantages over adversaries burdened by human decision latency, creating a black-box battlespace of unprecedented opacity. Continuous intelligence integration serves as the vital fuel driving these autonomous cycles, enabling slightly inferior models with secure, low-latency sensor inputs to outperform advanced systems relying on stale data. To mitigate uncontrolled escalation in this high-speed domain, Great Powers must establish Mutually Assured AI Destruction deterrence frameworks backed by verification mechanisms, including a potential OPCW-style inspection agency. Ultimately, warfare in this era merges policy into executable code, forcing national security structures to accelerate innovation or face automated defeat.

Strengthening the U.S. Semiconductor Manufacturing Workforce

Center for Security and Emerging Technology | Jack Karsten, Luke Koslosky

United States efforts to expand domestic leading-edge semiconductor fabrication depend directly on securing a specialised workforce to mitigate supply chain concentration risks. Analysis by the Centre for Security and Emerging Technology indicates that front-end manufacturing faces severe bottlenecks in recruiting credentialed engineers and experienced equipment technicians capable of operating high-reliability cleanrooms.

Cleanroom operations demand unique technical competencies. Evaluating 3,441 domestic job postings from January 2023 to April 2025 alongside insights from a May 2025 industry roundtable, the study details workforce requirements across 31 major employers spanning 48 states and the District of Columbia. Across 85 distinct O*NET occupational categories, published vacancies prioritise specialised skills in micro-manufacturing and electronics assembly alongside core operational capabilities. To sustain long-term semiconductor fab expansion, recommendations emphasise aligning formal academic degree programs and registered apprenticeships with real-world technical requirements while expanding recruitment targeting skilled immigrants and underrepresented talent pools.

Beyond the Reaper: Rethinking the future of multirole drones

Atlantic Council | Moss Gillespie

United States combat losses during Operation Epic Fury against Iran have claimed 45 MQ-9 Reaper drones in six months, reducing the active U.S. Air Force fleet from 206 aircraft in 2024 down to 135. This rapid combat attrition highlights the acute operational vulnerability of costly multirole platforms operating inside contested air defense environments.

Continuous orbital surveillance throughout Middle Eastern theaters previously relied on Reapers for critical reconnaissance and precision strikes, including high-profile operations targeting Qasem Soleimani and Ayman al-Zawahiri. In response to mounting equipment deficits, U.S. Air Force leadership and the Defense Innovation Unit are seeking modular, lower-cost airframe designs to replace depleted inventories. Legacy multirole platforms create single points of failure. Transitioning toward disaggregated networks of specialized, low-cost autonomous drones would shift severe economic and logistical targeting burdens onto adversary counter-air systems while preserving critical intelligence capabilities across future high-intensity battlefields.

Naming is Not Knowing: Why Cognitive Warfare Studies Need a Methodological Reset

Small Wars Journal | Oriane Cohen

NATO's 2020 cognitive warfare study triggered an unprecedented expansion of speculative military concepts that now outpaces actual operational understanding. This rapid conceptual inflation risks undermining Western strategic decision-making by replacing empirical analysis with redundant terminology. Scholars and defense institutions increasingly prioritize publishing novel taxonomies over verifying real-world operational efficacy.

Historically, doctrines like Soviet reflexive control from the 1960s and the Chinese People's Liberation Army's 2003 'three warfares' framework established clear boundaries by linking perception management directly to statecraft. Modern literature, however, treats the human brain as an isolated battlefield. This approach ignores how distributed cognition actually filters information through external organizational layers. Terminology must explain reality. Consequently, the gap between theoretical classification and actual tactical capability continues to widen. By failing to anchor new concepts in observable gray-zone mechanisms, the defense community risks installing institutional arbiters of truth rather than enhancing cognitive security through practical, evidence-based joint military defense measures.

Former AFCENT Commander Reflects on Lessons of Epic Fury

Air & Space Forces Magazine | Chris Gordon

Operation Epic Fury saw United States Air Forces Central execute the largest air campaign in a generation, striking over 13,000 targets across Iran between February 28 and an April ceasefire. American airmen, joint forces, and coalition partners generated approximately 250 sorties daily, totaling 10,000 sorties across 38 days at peak intensity, while defending regional bases against more than 1,500 Iranian ballistic missiles and 6,000 drones.

This unprecedented volume of dynamic fires forced Combined Air Operations Center commanders to transition rapidly from counterterrorism targeting models to high-intensity theater warfare. Rigorous joint integration enabled Army HIMARS firing ATACMS and PrSM alongside naval Tomahawk cruise missiles, yet significant logistical bottlenecks surfaced in munition supply chains, notably tail kits lacking for available bomb bodies. Deep base-defense gaps exposed vulnerable air domain awareness systems, underscoring requirements for hardened underground command nodes. Modern major combat operations demand resilient logistics. American focus has now shifted toward counter-blockade maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz.

The US Economic World War Part II

Frame the Globe News

Delegations representing eleven member states gathered at Bharat Mandapam in New Delhi for the 18th BRICS Leaders’ Summit without establishing a common currency or a shared settlement system capable of displacing the US dollar. Despite China recording a $1.19 trillion goods surplus in 2025 and a current-account surplus of 3.3 per cent of GDP according to the IMF’s February Article IV assessment, Beijing remains unwilling to open capital markets or surrender currency controls necessary for reserve status.

Capital controls restrict renminbi liquidity. A Strait of Hormuz crisis forced Indian refiners to import a record 2.78 million barrels a day of Russian crude in July 2026, defying trade commitments with Washington to preserve domestic energy security. Concurrently, Brazil signed the EU-Mercosur agreement in Asunción on January 17, 2026, creating a trade area of over 700 million people while retaining access to Western financial architecture. These divergent national interests prevent the formation of a unified anti-dollar monetary bloc.

ISKP Wants To Look Bigger Than It Is

Eurasia Review | Hamza Khan

The Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) is expanding its multilingual digital propaganda and cross-border operational reach between Afghanistan and Pakistan while remaining in a post-setback rebuilding phase. UN Monitoring Team reports confirm that Afghanistan remains ISKP’s primary operational base despite Pakistani counterterrorism operations and Afghan Taliban campaigns.

Borderlands complicate counter-insurgency by allowing cross-border network mobility without establishing permanent governance. In August 2026, PICSS August security data recorded 199 militant attacks nationwide across multiple insurgent groups, including Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and sectarian actors. Local forces responded aggressively. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa police data reported thousands of operations and created a dedicated unmanned aerial vehicle unit after countering 341 drone threats. Pakistani security forces also killed 15 TTP fighters attempting to cross into North Waziristan. Although ISKP claimed a February Shia mosque attack in Islamabad, objective threat assessments require separating digital media reach, ideological influence, and facilitation cells from an entrenched physical foothold.

Energy Vulnerability and Political Consequences

Institute of South Asian Studies | Imran Ahmed, Sheikh Muzzammil Hussen

Bangladesh experienced severe grid failures in July and August 2026, with load shedding exceeding 3,500 megawatts after LNG terminal damage and Gulf supply disruptions choked natural gas imports. The crisis threatens Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s political stability as economic losses mount across rural districts and key manufacturing sectors.

Industrial losses escalated rapidly. A fire at Excelerate Energy’s Moheshkhali floating terminal removed 450 million cubic feet of daily gas, while QatarEnergy declared force majeure following regional conflict near the Strait of Hormuz. Consequently, around 900 textile mills suspended operations, driving annual energy import costs up by US$4.8 billion and shifting public anger toward 80 rural electricity cooperatives serving 40 million customers. Capitalising on widespread rural blackouts, Jamaat-e-Islami’s 11-party opposition alliance launched a long march from Dhaka to Chattogram on 5 September 2026, transforming structural energy shortfalls into a direct, volatile challenge against state authority.

Turning the tide: China seeks to set the rules at sea

Brookings Institution | Peter Dutton

China is advancing a coordinated legal and operational strategy to reshape international maritime law and consolidate control over the South China Sea. Reports from the China Institute for Marine Affairs and Chinese foreign policy advisor Wu Shicun signal that Beijing is abandoning its historically passive posture to establish new rules governing international waters.

This strategic shift leverages perceived declines in U.S. Navy readiness caused by protracted Middle Eastern deployments and severely depleted munition stockpiles. Beijing has warned that it may construct permanent military infrastructure at Scarborough Shoal, placing Chinese power projection capability just 120 nautical miles off Luzon and 200 nautical miles from Manila. Power will prevail. Consequently, Southeast Asian littoral states face intensifying operational pressure as Washington’s regional deterrence posture erodes. To succeed globally, Beijing must reconcile its excessive historic claims and illegal straight baselines with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Will Taiwan Just Give Up?

The Atlantic | Simon Shuster

Chinese President Xi Jinping warned U.S. President Donald Trump during a May meeting in Beijing that escalating disputes over Taiwan could force the two superpowers to collide. Taiwanese public trust in U.S. security guarantees has plummeted following shifting American foreign policy signals under Trump. Beijing is capitalizing on this strategic friction by deepening political engagement with Taiwan’s opposition Nationalist Party, led by Cheng Li-wun.

Doubts grow. A negotiated accommodation with Beijing is increasingly viewed in Taipei as an unavoidable outcome rather than total military resistance. Xi personally highlighted historical precedent by serving KMT delegates the same clam-chicken broth offered to Richard Nixon in 1972. This deliberate political maneuvering exploits mounting Taiwanese fears of abandonment by Washington. Meanwhile, Chinese military intimidation across the Taiwan Strait continues alongside political outreach. Taiwan faces a critical dilemma as American security commitments appear uncertain while Chinese pressure intensifies systematically across political, economic, and military domains.