Andrew Korybko
Donald Trump, when asked about reports that Russia is gearing up for a large-scale offensive in Ukraine’s Sumy Region, told the media earlier in the week: “We’ll see what happens. I’m watching it very closely.”
This follows the Wall Street Journal’s report alleging that Russia has assembled 50,000 troops in preparation for that. A Russian security source denied such plans in comments to TASS, however, and instead described the aforesaid claims as part of a GUR disinfo campaign to fearmonger about Russia.
TASS’s source, while also claiming that Ukraine also does indeed have quite a few border fortifications there unlike what the WSJ wrote, also put forth the hypothesis that GUR wants to discredit the Defense Ministry in general and Commander-in-Chief Alexander Syrsky in particular.
Whatever the truth may be, what’s known for sure is that the Sumy region falls within the “buffer zone” that Putin spoke about carving out in late May, the strategy of which was analyzed here at the time.
The larger context concerns the realization that “The Russian-Ukrainian Talks Are At An Impasse That Only The US Or Brute Force Can Break.” Absent any serious efforts by Trump to coerce Zelensky into the concessions that Putin demands for peace, Russia might thus continue resorting to brute force to ensure its security interests, especially given the window of opportunity that reportedly just opened up. This is connected to Politico’s recent report about the Pentagon halting some promised munitions to Ukraine.
According to Politico’s sources, this includes “missiles for Patriot air defense systems, precision artillery rounds, Hellfire and other missiles that Ukraine launches from its F-16 fighters and drones.”
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