Andrew Latham
Key Points and Summary on Iran’s Nuclear Program and Israel – The recent ceasefire between Israel and Iran is a dangerous illusion—a temporary pause, not a resolution.
-Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion,” which successfully degraded Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, has set back Tehran’s breakout time but has not ended its nuclear ambitions.
-The underlying conflict remains unchanged: Israel views a nuclear Iran as an existential threat it cannot tolerate, while Iran sees a bomb as its ultimate guarantee of survival.
The Iran-Israel War Isn’t Over Just Yet
This is not peace; it’s a “long shadow war” that has brushed up against daylight, and the US can no longer pretend a diplomatic solution is just over the horizon.
Iran’s nuclear program has taken a hit. That much is no longer speculation—it’s the judgment of Israeli intelligence, confirmed in fragments by Western officials who speak carefully, but not vaguely. What happened at Fordow wasn’t an accident. What happened at Isfahan wasn’t routine. What happened at Natanz can’t be explained away by power fluctuations or bad luck. Sabotage, precision strikes, cyber disruption—call it what you like, but this was a campaign. And it worked. For now.
Reports suggest Iran’s breakout window has been pushed back—twelve to eighteen months, depending on who you ask. And while that matters, it changes nothing fundamental. These delays, though tactically useful, don’t resolve the underlying problem. Iran hasn’t abandoned its pursuit of a nuclear weapon. It’s been forced to slow down, not stand down. The centrifuges will be replaced. The facilities will be patched up. The enrichment will resume. Everyone involved understands this. No one seriously believes the problem has been solved. The question is what comes next, and who decides how this slow war turns fast.
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