Jerry E. Landrum, Chase Metcalf, and Michael M. Posey
ABSTRACT: This article argues that the current National Security Strategy lacks the necessary coherence and fidelity to mobilize collective action against the emerging Russia-China axis. It merges multiple theoretical concepts to assert that the “rules-based order” theme is insufficient for mobilizing public support. This article uses textual analysis of the strategy compared with publicly available polling to determine levels of popular resonance and finds that the “rules-based order emphasis” does not resonate. This study’s conclusions will assist practitioners as they develop an updated National Security Strategy with the advent of the new presidential administration.
Keywords: strategic narrative, mobilization, Russia, China, public opinion
In the 2022 National Security Strategy (NSS), President Joe Biden stressed that the world is at an “inflection point.” This term, adapted from mathematics, is “a point on a curve at which the sign of the curvature (concavity) changes.” Thus, US strategic leaders believe, as expressed in the document, that the international order may curve toward democracy or in the opposite direction toward autocracy. Furthermore, the document asserts that the United States has an “enduring role” in defending the current “rules-based order,” which is “free, open, prosperous, and secure” but challenged by China and Russia. The strategy identifies support for the UN charter, human rights, the environment, and territorial integrity as key aspects of this rules-based order. Unfortunately, the international rules-based order narrative does not resonate with the American public.1
We argue that the strategy establishes narrative themes legitimizing collective action. For example, the commitment of public resources for national security objectives. To be sure, few Americans read the strategy to form their opinions on foreign policy prioritization. Nonetheless, the lexicon of the document manifests in public pronouncements from senior leaders about America’s national security threats. For example, then–Secretary of State Antony Blinken asserted in a May 2022 speech at George Washington University that China was “the most serious long-term challenge to the international order.” This speech effectively communicated the March 2021 Interim National Security Strategy’s emphasis on the rules-based international order concept. As our analysis demonstrates, the rules-based order concept of the interim strategy was carried forward and amplified in the October 2022 NSS. Thus, in a February 2023 interview with Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic posted on the Department of State website, then–Secretary Blinken argued for “a rules-based order, an order that functions on the premise of international law.” Similarly, in a 2024 speech at Georgetown University, retired General Mark Milley stressed that China threatened the “so-called rules-based international order,” which are the rules that “have kept great power peace.”2
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