Derek Grossman
This could be the most volatile geopolitical moment in the Indo-Pacific since World War II. Extreme uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's policies is prompting U.S. allies and partners alike to explore the possibility of relying less on the United States and pivoting more toward China. U.S. President Donald Trump's 90-day pause of the steep tariffs he placed on friend and foe alike is unlikely to have quelled regional concerns. But U.S. policy alone is not enough to produce a shift; Beijing will also have to capitalize on the emerging geopolitical inflection point if it wants to ensure a long-lasting shift toward a China-centric region.
Take Vietnam, the ultimate strategic hedger in the Indo-Pacific. It has been careful to balance relations with China and the United States, both of which it treats as a “comprehensive strategic partner”—the highest level of partnership Hanoi can offer. This month, Vietnam welcomed Chinese President Xi Jinping in Hanoi, where both sides pledged to elevate their partnership even higher. This was a deliberate message to the United States from Vietnam, which had just been hit with a 46 percent tariff rate, that the country has other options.
And Xi played the role of spoiler to a tee: Taking a clear swipe at Trump's tariffs, he urged Vietnam to resist “unilateral bullying.” Xi also warned that “there are no winners in trade wars and tariff wars, and protectionism has no way out.” Rather than point out the irony of a Chinese leader lecturing about protectionism, Trump merely responded that China was probably trying to “screw” the United States. Xi went on to Malaysia and Cambodia—facing U.S. tariffs of 24 and 49 percent, respectively—to make a similar argument.
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