Tom LaTourrette, Fabian Villalobos, Elisa Yoshiara & Zohan Hasan Tariq
The Potential Impact of Seabed Mining on Critical Mineral Supply Chains and Global Geopolitics
The emergence of a seabed mining industry has important ramifications for the diversification of critical mineral supply chains, revenues for developing nations with substantial terrestrial mining sectors, and global geopolitics. While the industry is still nascent and its future is uncertain, it is worthwhile to consider the likelihood and magnitude of these impacts to better inform planning and policymaking around seabed mining in particular and critical mineral supply chains more broadly.
Critical Mineral Supply Chain Risks and Opportunities
Risks Posed by China’s Dominance of Critical Mineral Supply Chains
China’s overwhelming dominance over the global supply of critical minerals has fueled substantial concern in the United States and among its allies about the reliability of this supply for Western interests. A single source of supply for a global commodity leaves that supply vulnerable to disruption. When that single source is a state with a history of aggressive and retaliatory manipulation and restrictions on exports, market access, and pricing, there is even more cause for concern that deliberate disruptions could be imposed for political purposes. Furthermore, when the commodities at stake are critical minerals and components that are essential for energy, transportation, defense, and other sectors, these concerns take on even more urgency. As one example, China’s dominance over critical mineral supply chains associated with electric vehicle (EV) batteries, from mining to finished components, is illustrated in Figure 1.
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