12 April 2022

China’s Ukraine Calculus Is Coming Into Focus

PAUL HAENLE, SAM BRESNICK

Beijing believes its contradictory approach best protects its interests.

Though many have pointed out the inconsistencies in China’s delicate balancing act, Beijing has yet to suffer anything worse than reputational damage. Senior Chinese leaders would likely view any other course of action as much more deleterious to the country’s interests. Violating sanctions to aid Russia would bring economic calamity, while pressuring Russia to end the war could make Xi look bad. Though Beijing’s position appears untenable, the party likely views it as the least bad of a suite of terrible choices.

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