Tin Shine Aung
On the morning of December 8, 2024, the world was stunned by the news that Syrian rebel groups, led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), had captured Damascus and overthrown President Bashar al-Assad’s government after 13 years of civil war. This unexpected turn in one of the Middle East’s most protracted conflicts holds vital lessons for other movements seeking to overthrow entrenched dictatorships. Answering a set of questions helps bring those lessons forward: (1) How did Syrian rebel groups topple the Assad regime quickly this time? (2) What stance has Syria’s interim government taken toward ethnic and religious minorities for national reconciliation? (3) How is HTS navigating international legitimacy, given its designation by many Western governments as a terrorist group, while positioning itself as the de facto authority in Damascus?
This article explores these lessons through the lens of the Myanmar Revolution, offering insights that the Myanmar National Unity Government (NUG) and other rebel groups can draw from the Syrian Revolution. The involvement of external powers in the Syrian conflict is far more pronounced and significant than that of Myanmar, where direct interventions have been limited, with the notable exception of China’s involvement. While the situations in Syria and Myanmar differ significantly, certain parallels can be drawn between the two conflicts. These include (1) the shared aspiration of civilians in both nations to be liberated from oppressive regimes, (2) the presence of diverse ethnic and religious communities within both countries, (3) ongoing international legal proceedings against both regimes at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for alleged crimes against its civilians; (4) the involvement of numerous militia groups with divergent agendas in both conflicts; (5) repeated vetoes of UN Security Council resolutions targeting these regimes by permanent members such as Russia and China; (6) the strategic interests of regional powers – such as Iran & Turkey in Syria, and China & India in Myanmar – that shape the dynamics of both conflicts; and (7) the inefficient roles of regional blocs like the Arab League in Syria and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Myanmar.
How Could Syrian Rebel Groups Topple the Assad Regime So Swiftly?
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