Dimitar Bechev
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What will happen to Ukraine when the guns finally fall silent? Many believe it will be up to two people: U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Though there is some truth to this, it misses the point. The future will also depend on the relationship that Ukraine and Europe forge with one another.
Ever since Trump returned to the White House, his attention has been fixed on the Ukraine war. For its part, Russia has done its best to sweet-talk the U.S. president, betting on the calculation that he will eventually give up and let Moscow deal with what Russian officials see as a rebellious vassal. Putin’s surprise call for direct negotiations with Ukraine in early May 2025 serves precisely that objective, paying lip service to Trump’s mediation efforts while continuing to press Russia’s advantage on the battlefield.
The Europeans, led by France and the United Kingdom, are going along with Trump’s peacemaking in the hope of freezing the war on terms favorable to Ukraine. That would mean preserving Ukraine as a viable state that could pursue a pro-Western course in domestic and foreign affairs. The visit to Kyiv on May 10 by French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk was as much about signaling unity as it was a nod to Trump.
It’s always hard to tell which way the wind is blowing with a leader as fickle as Trump. Likely, the pendulum in Washington will swing back and forth, with different factions within the U.S. administration pulling in different directions. A total U.S. pullout from Ukraine looks unlikely thanks to perseverance from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and efforts to engage Trump from Macron and Starmer. But Trump’s first 100 days in office show that at the very least, the United States can no longer be taken for granted.
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