Kevin Pollpeter, Elizabeth Barrettand, April Herlevi
This report examines the evolving deterrence dynamics between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the space domain. During the Cold War, nuclear deterrence helped maintain the peace between the United States and the Soviet Union, and it remains a cornerstone of US defense policy today. However, for reasons both geopolitical and technological, the ability of any country to deter another from attacking its space assets is being called into question.
China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is acquiring and developing a range of counterspace capabilities and related technologies, including kinetic-kill missiles, ground-based lasers, and co-orbital satellites, as well as the space surveillance capabilities that enable their use. The use of these weapons against the US space architecture could threaten US military superiority by undermining the command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities that enable the US military to operate in the Indo-Pacific and project power globally.
APPLYING DETERRENCE TO THE SPACE DOMAIN
We define space deterrence as one country dissuading another country from interfering with systems that operate in space or support the operation of space systems from the ground. Numerous variables can complicate the success of deterrence in the space domain. Deterrence dynamics may be influenced by whether attacks are reversible or irreversible, terrestrial or space-based, kinetic or non-kinetic, and lethal or non-lethal.
The effectiveness of space deterrence could be shaped by the type of weapon. Nuclear weapons, kinetic weapons, and non-kinetic weapons, such as electronic countermeasures, directed energy weapons, and cyber weapons, could all be used against space assets. Space deterrence could also include preventing attacks against launch sites and other facilities using conventional munitions, such as bombs and missiles.
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