Over the past week, Russia has launched over 1,800 Geran-2 (the indigenized version of the Iranian Shahed-136) alongside decoy long-range drones. This marks a sharp increase in the average intensity of long-range drone attacks per day, peaking at 728 combined drones and decoys on 9 July. This is on top of dozens of cruise and ballistic missiles being launched at Ukraine.
Beyond the quantitative increase, Russia has recently introduced qualitative changes that both enhance the lethality of its long-range drones and make them harder to intercept (while likely also making them more expensive).
This post reviews recent developments in the long-range drone domain and assesses the capacity of the Western defense industrial base to respond to airbreathing missile threats, including Geran-2-type drones and land-attack cruise missiles.
It is the second part of my analysis of Europe’s missile defense capabilities in the context of Russia’s growing missile production. Last week’s post examined Russian ballistic missile capabilities and Western missile defense. You can access it here.
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Qualitative Russian long-range drone and cruise missile developments
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