Dr. Gurakuç Kuçi
On the same day the United States announced the potential imposition of 100% tariffs on any buyer of Russian oil,
a measure that includes secondary sanctions on countries maintaining cooperation with Moscow, Serbia, Russia,
and Hungary signed a new agreement to construct an oil pipeline connecting Belgrade to the Hungarian network.
This is no coincidence. It is a calculated countermove by Moscow and a deliberate act of strategic engagement by Serbia within the Russia-Hungary energy axis.
On January 10, 2025, the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) imposed sanctions on the Serbian oil company NIS (Naftna Industrija Srbije),
more than 56% of whose shares are controlled by Gazprom Neft and Gazprom. However, to prevent the immediate collapse of Serbia’s internal supply, the U.S.
granted temporary waivers (until July 29, 2025) to allow a transition from Russian oil to alternative sources. Yet Serbia did not abandon Russian oil supply; on the contrary, it changed the route and the means of transportation.
The pipeline that will connect Serbia to Hungary’s supply system is not a neutral project. It represents:An evasion of EU and U.S. checkpoints by passing through a state (Hungary) that is already a strategic ally of Moscow.
The establishment of a secure route for Moscow to channel oil into Southeastern Europe, with Serbia acting as a buffer zone and friendly territory.
An increase in Russia’s independence from traditional distribution networks, helping bypass risky or sanctioned routes.
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