Dr. Taylor Fravel of MIT published a noteworthy piece in Foreign Affairs this week entitled “Is China’s Military Ready for War?” because it reminds us that the decisions to use force may surpass concerns about readiness. Put otherwise,
Xi Jinping could decide to use the People’s Liberation Army regardless of its ability to assure victory in a conflict.
The gist of Fravel’s argument is a reminder that China’s use of its military during the CCP era has occurred more than once.
The most important line is “it is useful to remember that Beijing has rarely waited for the right conditions before ordering the PLA into battle”. In other words,
rather than focusing on the parlor game of who is under investigation versus who is now in a new position,
we would be better off recognizing that Xi may feel the need or desire to employ the military instrument, regardless of whether he trusts his senior military personnel.
The PLA, after all, is an arm of the Communist Party rather than an autonomous body within the Chinese state apparatus.
As I have mentioned many times over the past two and a half years, CCP General Secretaries scold the 2 million active-duty military members,
stating that their role is to serve the Party rather than as a force with independent status; this occurs seemingly weekly, which raises doubts about whether the oft-repeated message is getting through.
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