Ceasefires are good. They mean the shooting and the killing stops. The problem is that they often only suit one side, which may need an opportunity to reorganise and rearm.
Back in March, Russia and Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea. This allowed the Russian Black Sea Fleet to come out of hiding and restock, putting Ukraine, which had restored freedom of navigation there, on the back foot.
Similarly, the recent uneasy ceasefire between the Houthis and the US initially looked positive and resulted in a large reduction in missiles fired at international ships,
but it gave the terrorists time to reorganise and rearm. As quickly as they could say, “this is all about Israel” they then broke the ceasefire by attacking two ships with only tangential links to Israel, sinking both and killing nine mariners.
How did they re-arm though? This is one of two questions that have been asked since the Houthis started this latest campaign back in October 2023:
where are they getting their weapons from and, less frequently asked but perhaps more important, why are they not being stopped?
The answer to the first part is as easy as it is obvious – the weapons come from Iran. There is UN evidence based on recovered missile remnants and seized propellant materials to prove this, as if it were needed.
What is less clear is which parts the Houthis can now make on their own and which parts they still need either Iranian assistance or components for.
In general the simpler it is, the more likely it is to have been manufactured in Yemen. China is in the picture here with some of the engines coming from there and there are even reports that technology has been exchanged for guarantees of safe passage through the Southern Red Sea.
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