3 May 2025

Can Trump Broker Peace in Ukraine: Prospects and Challenges?

Christopher Zambakari

The United States claims its objective in Ukraine is clear: ensuring Ukraine’s sovereignty and delivering Russia a decisive “strategic failure.” Yet, the reality on the ground paints a more complex picture—a grueling conflict, staggering costs, and the risk of nuclear war. Can the West’s ambitious goals, from erasing Russia’s territorial gains to regime change in Moscow, align with Ukraine’s desperate fight for survival and Russia’s unyielding security demands? The stakes couldn’t be higher, and the path to resolution remains elusive. With each passing day, the human and economic costs of the conflict continue to mount, underscoring the urgent need for a diplomatic breakthrough. The question looms: can U.S. policy bridge the chasm between principle and pragmatic peace? Can Donald Trump break rank with his predecessor and broker a peace agreement that endures?

The Ukraine-Russia conflict has deep historical roots. After the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, Ukraine declared independence. However, tensions persisted as Ukraine sought closer ties with Western Europe while maintaining deep cultural and economic ties with Russia. In 2014, these divisions erupted into conflict when protests over then-President Viktor Yanukovych’s pro-Russian policies led to his ousting. Russia responded by annexing Crimea and a civil war broke out in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

In 2022, the conflict escalated dramatically when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine, with Western support, fiercely resisted, reclaiming territories but suffering immense devastation. Russia demands Ukraine’s neutrality, the recognition of Crimea as Russian territory, and autonomy for separatist regions. Conversely, Ukraine insists on the restoration of its territorial integrity, reparations, and security guarantees.

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