Where India Fits Into New US Strategies

Kamran Bokhari

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In its 2025 annual forecast, GPF wrote that the world no longer has an anchor around which to organize itself. Nowhere is this better exemplified than in the downturn in U.S.-India relations. New Delhi assumed that its relationship with Washington was immune to the shifts in America’s global strategy, but that has not been the case. The Trump administration’s efforts to manage its two biggest adversaries, China and Russia, have revealed the limits of its decadeslong alignment with India. India still boasts the world’s fastest-growing economy, so it will remain a key U.S. partner, but it is unlikely to retain its special status as the U.S.-China competition heats up.

On Aug. 6, U.S. President Donald Trump slapped an additional 25 percent tariff on Indian goods in response to India’s continued purchase of Russian oil. The move brought overall tariffs on the world’s most populous nation (and close American ally) to 50 percent – among the steepest faced by any U.S. trading partner. Also on Aug. 6, Indian media reported that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will travel to China on Aug. 31 – his first trip to the country since the border clashes of June 2020 – to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit. Elsewhere, Indian national security adviser Ajit Doval is leaving for a trip to Moscow ahead of another visit to the Kremlin by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar.

These developments constitute a dramatic turn of events. Until recently, the United States saw India as a strategic ally, especially with regard to its foreign policy objective to contain China. This has been the case for every U.S. administration, including Trump’s first one, since the early 2000s. Central to that view is that over the past two decades, India’s has become the world’s fourth-largest economy, in terms of nominal gross domestic product, overtaking Russia’s, Italy’s, France’s, the United Kingdom’s and Japan’s. It also has the world’s fourth-largest military.

For these reasons, Washington has cultivated New Delhi as a critical partner on the military and economic fronts. In 2017, it revived the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and combined the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean basins into a single command known as INDOPACOM, making it easier to integrate India into its strategic plans for countering China. It also hoped India would be able to become an alternative industrial destination to help reduce global exposure to Chinese manufacturing.

Winning in India: 5 approaches to business success

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With its deep talent pool, large consumer market, and improving infrastructure, India is rapidly emerging as a global business hub. But success in this complex, fast-evolving environment isn’t guaranteed. Organizations looking to establish or expand operations in India must navigate unique challenges, including complex regulations, labor strikes, and red tape. Our analysis of the most successful companies reveals that they tend to share the following five approaches to business:Taking a long-term view

“In the best case, India will not simply be a new location for manufacturing but a source of innovation and new product development,” write McKinsey’s Bob Sternfels, Rajat Dhawan, and coauthors. “Companies that establish or expand their presence in India could create a new growth engine.” Dive into each of the five approaches, then explore our insights to learn more about business in India.

"Make in India" relies on "Made in China"

Akhil Ramesh

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The overlap between trade and national security has become more acute over the last decade, leading to a resurgence in industrial policies globally. In India, New Delhi is increasingly realizing that a pivot towards manufacturing requires increased economic linkages with nations that have mastered it. While the country negotiates closer trade ties with the US, it is simultaneously nurturing a robust and growing economic relationship with China.

In 2014, Modi launched the "Make in India" initiative with the ambitious aim to transform India into a global manufacturing hub. The government envisioned that targeted industrial policies, along with streamlined regulations and reduced red tape, would create a conducive environment for investment. New Delhi set the goal of raising manufacturing’s share in India’s GDP from 15% in 2014 to 25% by 2025. In his second term, Modi’s administration identified 14 key sectors and introduced sector-specific industrial policies known as the Production Linked Incentive scheme (PLI). PLI had a two-pronged, zealous agenda: increase the share of manufacturing in India’s GDP, and reduce reliance on China in key sectors.

Fast forward to a decade later, while the value of electronics exports has increased, neither the share of manufacturing in India’s GDP has increased nor has India wholly reduced its dependence on China in key sectors. The dependence on China has only shifted from downstream goods to upstream goods. In fact, as of 2025, manufacturing’s share of India’s GDP has dropped to under 14% — lower than in 2014 when the Make in India initiative was formally announced.

With an outlay of 1.9 trillion Indian rupees (US$26 billion), the PLI scheme produced mixed results. In semiconductors and defense, manufacturing plants have sprung up in Gujarat in the west of India and Assam in the east through partnerships with American and Taiwanese companies. The telecommunications sector has achieved a 60% import substitution in critical components. In less than two years from 2023, imports of PV cells and modules from China dropped to 56% for PV cells and 66% for modules from more than 90% as a share of India’s PV imports. Unimaginable a decade ago, Apple is now producing 20% of its iPhones in India – one of the most talked-about success stories out of the Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyaan, or Self-Reliant India campaign.

Kabul braces for a waterless future

Rafi Schwartz

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For the past half-century, the city of Kabul has endured more than its fair share of hardship and tragedy. As Afghanistan's capital works to move past its violent history, a new challenge has emerged to threaten Kabul's future in a way no occupying army or theocratic regime ever could. The city faces a "severe and multi-faceted water crisis" which, if not addressed immediately, "will soon pose an existential threat" to Kabul's six million residents, said a new study by the nonprofit Mercy Corps. If allowed to continue, the crisis will earn Kabul the ignominious distinction of becoming the first major capital in modern history to fully exhaust its subterranean water supply.

How much water does Kabul have?

Kabul's underground aquifers have "plummeted 25-30 meters in the past decade" with usage "exceeding natural recharge by a staggering 44 million cubic meters annually," said Mercy Corps. The "vast majority" of Kabul's subterranean water comes from "melting snow and ice in the Hindu Kush mountains," which feed the city's three main aquifers, with only some 20% of households connected to "piped running water from centralized sources."

At the same time, nearly half the city's boreholes are dry, while the remaining wells are "functioning at only 60% efficiency," the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said in 2023. According to Mercy Corps, 90% of Kabul residents rely on "water pumped from borewells to supply their daily needs."

Intel, funding and military support: CIA eyes return to Pakistan as US pledges 'counterterrorism' support

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In a move that raises questions about Pakistan’s reliance on external powers, the United States and Pakistan have agreed to bolster counter-terrorism cooperation in a recent high-level meeting. The US has pledged full support to Pakistan in its fight against terror groups, despite Islamabad’s long-standing failures to rein in terrorism on its soil.

The talks, held between US and Pakistani officials, laid out a series of commitments that appear to signal a deepening of ties, particularly in intelligence-sharing, military assistance, and cross-border operations -- areas where Pakistan has repeatedly shown vulnerability.

Diplomatic sources in Islamabad told CNN-News18 that the United States “pledged to provide vital support to Pakistan’s ongoing efforts to combat terrorism, particularly from groups like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA).”

The commitment comes as Pakistan continues to face escalating threats from militant groups along its borders, particularly in the volatile regions of the Pak-Afghan and Pak-Iran frontiers -- a problem of Islamabad’s own making.

August 15, 2021: The Return of Darkness for Afghanistan

Adila Ayoub Hakimi

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August 15 holds a solemn place in the collective memory of the Afghan people as a symbol of state collapse, the onset of darkness, and the failure of the international conscience. On this day, a fundamentalist, misogynistic, and anti-human group used force to reassert its control over the fate of a nation. This moment marks one of the darkest chapters in contemporary Afghan history. It was not only a political collapse but the destruction of half a century of women’s struggle for freedom, equality, and human dignity – a disintegration of core human rights and values.

The Taliban, a group born out of regional and international intelligence projects, assumed power on August 15, 2021 through the humiliating surrender of Kabul. As with the group’s origin, the Taliban’s return to power was sealed by agreements among global powers, rather than the Afghan people’s will.

The result was the total erasure of Afghan women, who are not only denied education, political participation, and civil engagement but stripped of the basic right to exist in society. The Taliban formally and completely deny the social and individual presence of Afghan women.

United Nations reports, including those by Richard Bennett, the U.N. special rapporteur on human rights in Afghanistan, have documented systematic, organized violence against women: arbitrary arrests, imprisonment, torture, gang rape, forced marriages, and targeted killings are all weapons in the deliberate silencing of Afghan women.

The Taliban’s hostility toward education, especially women’s education, is neither accidental nor superficial; it is a fundamental pillar of their ideology. Since their inception, the Taliban have viewed education not as a human right but as a threat to their political, ethnic, and religious dominance.

China Will Never Let Russia Lose the War in Ukraine

Andrew Michta

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Xi Jinping President of the People’s Republic of China speak’s at a United Nations Office at Geneva. 18 january 2017. UN Photo / Jean-Marc Ferré

-Because a Russian defeat would free up American power to focus on the Indo-Pacific, Beijing will not allow it.

-Therefore, without major U.S. concessions to China—an unlikely scenario—the war will likely be settled by attrition on the battlefield, not at a negotiating table.

The Key to Stopping the War in Ukraine Lies in Beijing, Not Moscow

The anticipated meeting in Alaska between President Donald J. Trump and President Vladimir Putin has raised expectations that a deal may be in the works to at least broker an armistice between Ukraine and Russia.

The announcement following Steve Witkoff’s visit to Moscow sparked a flurry of activity in Kyiv and European capitals, with Europeans issuing statements about their enduring solidarity with Ukraine and what they expect the deal not to include, particularly regarding territorial concessions that would compromise Ukraine’s interests.

It is clear that, as far as the US administration is concerned, this is for the most part a bilateral US-Russian negotiation, with neither Ukraine nor the Europeans included so far.

The question remains whether the upcoming Alaska meeting will substantially alter the trajectory of how the conflict in Ukraine has unfolded – and is likely to continue unfolding going forward. And most importantly, whether any armistice deal brokered at the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska – should it come to that — will hold, for it would have to contain provisions that would compel Moscow to adhere to it going forward, rather than pursuing the path to victory that Putin believes is ultimately his.

Trump’s Russia Reset

Smart Device Empire, Part 2: Policy Underpins PRC’s Global IoT Ambitions

Matthew Johnson

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Beijing views control over the platforms, standards, and data flows of the Internet of Things (IoT) era as a source of lasting structural leverage, and has spent more than a decade positioning itself at the center of this emerging system.

The PRC’s share of global smart home device shipments is projected to reach 20–30 percent by 2028, driven by a domestic environment of sustained policy support, coordinated investment, and state-managed access to capital.

Massive state-led investment in broadband, 5G, and next-generation network infrastructure—deployed by major state-owned telecom operators—has given PRC firms a decisive first-mover advantage in developing, refining, and exporting advanced IoT technologies.

Beijing’s active role in shaping international standards signals that its ambitions extend beyond manufacturing scale, aiming to embed Chinese technical protocols, governance norms, and data practices into the global connected-device ecosystem.

Looking ahead, the spread of PRC IoT platforms points toward a fully integrated digital environment in which everyday devices are linked to AI, cloud, and edge systems under Chinese influence—raising long-term risks of technological dependence, data capture, and reduced autonomy for foreign governments and industries.

Beijing is positioning the full spectrum of state policy tools behind its Internet of Things (IoT) ambitions—aligning telecom infrastructure, protected domestic markets, and tightly managed technical standards to consolidate its influence at home and extend it abroad. This expansion goes beyond selling connected devices: by dominating core components like cellular IoT modules and driving global rule-making through initiatives such as China Standards 2035, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is creating long-term supply chain dependencies and reshaping the rules of digital interoperability (China Brief, July 25).

China, No 2 in global computing power, accelerates build-out as AI race heats up

Luna Sun

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China has vowed an even stronger push to entrench digital infrastructure’s role as an economic growth engine, after a rapid 5G roll-out in recent years that has helped lift its computing power to the world’s No 2 ranking, trailing only the US.

In the five years to June this year, the number of 5G base stations in China had grown fivefold to 4.55 million and the number of gigabit broadband users had risen 34-fold to 226 million, substantially lifting the country’s computing power, Liu Liehong, the director of the National Data Bureau, told a news conference in Beijing on Thursday that focused on China’s achievements in digital infrastructure development.

But the country’s data infrastructure development is still in its early stages and it will continue to deploy large-scale facilities and foster a market-driven ecosystem to support the digital economy and scientific and technological innovation, bureau deputy director Xia Bing said at the same news conference.

“We’ll continuously build convenient, efficient, autonomous, secure and world-leading national data infrastructure,” he said.

China’s data industry has become a new growth driver for the digital economy, with more than 400,000 companies generating 5.86 trillion yuan (US$816.4 billion) in output last year – a jump of 117 per cent from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan in 2020 – according to the National Data Development Research Institute, and it is expected to maintain a high level of growth in the next few years.

In eastern China’s Yangtze River Delta, which includes some of the country’s most developed cities such as Shanghai, Suzhou and Hangzhou, a multi-tier, full-chain data industry ecosystem has taken shape, Liu said.

Stealth F-35 vs. J-20 Fighter War Summed Up in 2 Words: Quantity Wins

Andrew Latham

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Key Points and Summary: While the U.S. F-35 and F-22 may be qualitatively superior, China’s ability to mass-produce its J-20 stealth fighter presents a grave quantitative threat.

-China’s “offset strategy with Chinese characteristics” focuses on overwhelming the limited number of American fifth-generation jets with a massive fleet of J-20s.

-This industrial might could allow the PLAAF to achieve air superiority through sheer numbers, saturating and neutralizing the technological advantages of the smaller U.S. force in a potential Indo-Pacific conflict and forcing a fundamental shift in American air combat doctrine.

China’s J-20 Has the Numbers vs. F-35

The battle for air superiority has evolved from a fighter-versus-fighter struggle to one based on quality versus quantity even if one accepts that in a one-on-one dogfight between the F-35s of the US Air Force (USAF) and the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s (PLAAF’s) J-20s, the former will come out on top.

However, that is not the fight that the USAF is likely to find itself in.

Simply put, the USAF’s global deployments and limited stock of fifth-generation fighters (the F-35 and F-22) severely limit the number of such fighters the USAF can deploy to any given theater. If, as appears likely, Beijing should prove capable of mass-producing its J-20, the PLAAF will be free to throw the overwhelming weight of its burgeoning fighter arsenal at the relatively limited stock of US fifth-generation fighters, not only tipping the balance in a specific battle, but potentially shifting the broader geopolitical dynamics of the Indo-Pacific in China’s favor.

Left out of Alaska talks, exhausted Ukrainians fear an unjust peace

Jonathan Beale

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They call it "dronocide": new training to deal with what is now the greatest threat to a Ukrainian soldier's life on the battlefield – drones.

These machines saturate the front line and cause the largest number of casualties, according to Ukraine. If Donald Trump can't make Vladimir Putin agree to a ceasefire at their meeting in Alaska on Friday, then this training in eastern Ukraine might be essential to saving lives on the front.

The continuing preparation for battle suggests few in Ukraine are expecting this war to stop any time soon. The training is not especially sophisticated: their defence is a shotgun. The soldiers go through drills to hit fast-moving targets – shooting first from the ground, and then while on the move. Ihor, their experienced instructor, tells the men a shotgun is currently their most effective means to bring down a drone at close range.

Ihor has been fighting on Ukraine's eastern front since 2014, the year Russia illegally annexed Crimea and sent troops into the Donbas region. His call sign is "The Knifer". He also trains troops in hand-to-hand combat.

Ihor's been trying to help stop the Russian advance for the past ten years. He bristles at any suggestion that Ukraine will have to give up territory as part of any "land swap".

"Neither me nor my comrades are ready for this," he tells me. He says they'd rather continue fighting until "we liberate our territories".

That doesn't seem likely, with some Ukrainian front line units now well below strength. One soldier told us renewed efforts to mobilise more troops had been a "disaster". They know they're still outgunned and outnumbered.

Ukrainian troops also admit they're tired and losing ground. It's an undeniable fact. But this training shows they're not giving up.

Oleksii, one of the soldiers honing his skill with a shotgun, says he's already lost his father and friends in the war.

Satellite Photos Reveal Iran's Devastating Water Crisis

Amir Daftari

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New satellite photos show the scale of Iran's worsening water crisis, revealing stark declines in two of Tehran's key drinking water reservoirs and in Lake Urmia, once a thriving inland sea.

The capital's reserves from nearby dams have plunged to historic lows, threatening millions of residents. Masoud Pezeshkian, the country's president, recently warned that without urgent conservation, Tehran could face severe shortages in the coming weeks.

"There won't be any water in dams by September or October" if consumption is not reduced, Pezeshkian said.

Why It Matters

Record heat, little rainfall and decades of mismanagement have pushed Iran to the brink of an environmental breaking point. Nationwide, the disappearance of vital water sources threatens agriculture, undermines electricity production and worsens air quality—placing both the environment and public health in jeopardy.

The fallout could even extend beyond Iran's borders, affecting regional food supplies and trade.

Amir Kabir Dam

The Amir Kabir Dam, also known as the Karaj Dam, about 39 miles northwest of Tehran, is a vital source of drinking water for the capital and an agricultural lifeline. The reservoir—designed to hold over 200 million cubic meters—now contains just six percent of its usable volume.

Only Trump Can Save Israel from Its Own Government

Philip H. Gordon

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The Israeli cabinet’s recent approval of a plan to take military control over all of Gaza left many observers puzzled because it made so little sense. The Israeli government claims that it needs to go in and "finish the job" of dismantling Hamas and freeing Israeli hostages. But even its most ardent defenders are struggling to explain how and why a group that has been decimated by 22 months of bombing and ground operations still poses a strategic threat to Israel, how an ideology and political movement can ever be eliminated with force, and why a further invasion and occupation is not more likely to lead to the hostages being killed—either by Hamas or the operation itself—than freed.

Even more puzzling is that the Israeli government is making the case for a further invasion of Gaza despite the likely monumental costs of such an operation. Sending large numbers of Israeli forces into Gaza City and beyond will almost certainly lead to many more months of conflict, kill and displace many more Palestinian civilians, and aggravate an already intolerable humanitarian situation. It will mean more suffering and deaths among the remaining Israeli hostages, cause further casualties among Israeli soldiers, require more costly call-ups of overworked reserve forces, exacerbate Israel’s image as a pariah state in the eyes of much of the world, further undermine Israeli relations with its Arab neighbors, and jeopardize the strategic relationship with the United States, where support for Israel is

What Would a Ceasefire in Ukraine Look Like?

Benjamin Jensen

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As the United States and Russia prepare to engage in a historic meeting in Alaska about the future of the war in Ukraine, a major technical issue remains unresolved: What will a ceasefire look like? Ceasefires are one of the most dangerous moments in a conflict cycle. While both sides are often exhausted, they are still bargaining and seeking to end the war on more favorable terms at the negotiating table. This makes it essential to start thinking about what an international ceasefire-monitoring force would need to look like to set conditions for ending the war in Ukraine.

Q1: What’s the current risk of failure?

A1: High. Based on historical analysis, 31 percent of interstate wars end in a stalemate under ceasefire agreements, which halts large-scale violence but leaves underlying disputes unresolved. Worse still, most ceasefires experience minor failures within 10 days, with larger failures tending to occur between 65 and 193 days. When external monitors are involved, it tends to reduce large-scale violence but not minor clashes. This means that any ceasefire in Ukraine is almost certain to fail absent some external monitoring and security guarantee.

Second, Russia has a track record of breaking past ceasefires. Ukraine accuses Moscow of violating 25 ceasefire agreements since 2014. The Minsk I Protocol (2014) and subsequent memorandum quickly broke down and paved the way for renewed offensives. Moscow has historically used ceasefires more as a way to position forces on the battlefield than as a way to seek long-term peace. Even the Minsk II agreement only slowed fighting to the contact line in the Donbas while setting the stage for the 2022 invasion. This track record further reinforces the historical trend: Lasting ceasefires need a mix of monitors and security guarantees. Securing time and space for peace negotiations today will require unmanned aerial surveillance, real-time sensors, and multinational enforcement contingents.

Q2: What would a durable ceasefire require?

A2: External ceasefire monitors and international security guarantees. If President Trump can convince Putin to declare a ceasefire and usher in multilateral negotiations involving Ukraine and the European Union, there will need to be significant monitoring and external security guarantees. Past failures like Minsk illustrate that vague buffer zones and unarmed monitors do not stop hostilities. A more robust model—potentially combining Ukrainian forces, NATO observers, or neutral peacekeepers—that could monitor over 1,000 kilometers of front and deter local counterattacks would consist of drone swarms, artillery, and fighter jets supporting assault teams.

Reflections from the UK's Chief of the Defence Staff

Seth Jones: Welcome to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

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I have the enormous pleasure of welcoming Admiral Sir Tony Radakin. He’s the professional head of the United Kingdom’s armed forces, military strategic commander, and principal military advisor to the prime minister and the secretary of state for defence. Admiral Radakin previously served as the first sea lord and chief of the naval staff from June 2019 until early November 2021. Commissioned into the Royal Navy in 1990, he has served in numerous command and staff appointments, both ashore and afloat, and in command of U.K. and international forces.

His operational tours have included the Iran-Iraq tanker war, security duties in the Falklands, NATO operations in the Adriatic, countering smuggling in Hong Kong and the Caribbean, and three tours in Iraq, each in command. I understand that this will be your last public speaking event as chief of the defense staff, but I know there is more to come. Word on the street has it that you are an avid squash player and sailor and have four boys. So as someone who came from a family with four boys, I’m sure you will have your hands full. Welcome, Admiral, to CSIS.

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin: Well, thank you very much, Seth. And it’s a pleasure to be back in Washington. Thank you to Lord Mandelson and the British defense staff, and to the Center for Strategic and International Studies for hosting, as you said, what is probably my last public speech as chief of the defense staff.

There normally comes a point when a chief steps down that they let forth on all the frustrations and opinions they’ve bottled up during their time in post. Those of you hoping for me to let rip or to spill the beans on the inner workings of the four different administrations I’ve served will be somewhat disappointed. I’m afraid I’m going to be irritatingly consistent. My narrative today is pretty much the same as it was at the outset of my tenure four years ago. And for those of you who haven’t made it through one of my speeches before, the gist is as follows: We are in a new, more dangerous era, but Britain remains safe. NATO is stronger. Russia is weak. And the West has the military, economic, and intellectual heft needed to buttress the global system.

The ‘kingmaker’: Trump relishes his diplomacy as he jockeys for Nobel Prize

Jake Traylor

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President Donald Trump campaigned on an “America First” policy that rejected the United States’ traditional role of global policeman. His first 200 days in office have said otherwise.

Trump is relishing his role as peacemaker in chief, according to a White House official granted anonymity to speak candidly about the president, believing he can make deals that have eluded his predecessors, showing simultaneously his acumen and his power – whether he’s successful or not.

“He loves being in the position to be a kingmaker for all of these smaller, weaker countries around the world,” the person said.

Trump reminds audiences regularly of the wars he believes he has stopped, emphasizing how long the conflicts have raged. Last week, Trump brought the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan to the White House to secure a peace agreement between the long-hostile countries, the sixth such deal of his second term, although his exact role in at least one case is in dispute.

“I’ve solved six wars in the last six months, a little more than six months now, and I’m very proud of it,” Trump said Thursday in the Oval Office.

But on Friday, Trump will face perhaps his toughest test as he meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin in an effort to secure an end to his war in Ukraine.

Donald Trump’s war on WashingtonHe wants to manipulate the masses

Lee Siegel

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Vladimir Putin will probably spend much of this Friday’s meeting with Donald Trump in Alaska distracting America’s megalomaniac by appealing to his vanity — congratulations on taking over the Kennedy Center! One aspect of the new America will definitely intrigue Putin. How is it that in the most advanced capitalist economy in the world, where a hyper-critical counterculture is the dominant rhythm of everyday life, Trump is managing to put in place the sunniness once enforced by the Soviet regime?

It is more than passing strange. In the Soviet era, so-called socialist realism was enforced in the fine arts, which depicted happy collective farmfolk; academics portrayed the Russian Revolution in lectures and books as the dawn of the world’s first workers’ paradise. The media published one glowing economic report after another; posters depicting radiant construction workers hung everywhere; new composers vied to embed heroic anthems to communism in their symphonies. A few lines critical of Stalin in a poem by Osip Mandelstam that Mandelstam read to a small group of friends resulted in a betrayal, the poet’s arrest and his death in a gulag. “Only in Russia is poetry respected,” Mandelstam had once wryly written. “It gets people killed.”

A drab, Philistine approach to culture is essential to a repressive regime, and for the Philistine Trump and his band of intellectual and cultural mediocrities, attempts to coerce American institutions into an optimistic sameness blend seamlessly with the coarseness of their taste. From universities to the Smithsonian, Trump wants an official American culture that projects only the “greatness” of America, with no flaws or blemishes. He dismisses reporters who criticise him as “scum” or “evil”. He has made it clear that, from government agencies to private banks like Goldman Sachs, he desires economic statistics that report only positive news. Like a dime-store Lenin, his giant portrait now hangs in front of the Department of Agriculture building in Washington.

Trump’s Tariffs Could Decimate Asia’s Smallest Economies and Weaken U.S. Influence

Joshua Kurlantzick, Annabel Richter

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In recent weeks, White House economic policy has focused on making deals, keeping truces, or in some cases—like that of Brazil, which President Trump himself seems personally aggrieved at—levying harsh punishments on the world's biggest economies.

For instance, although details remain sketchy and vague, the White House has announced a trade deal with Japan in which the world’s third-largest economy would face either 15 percent or 26.4 percent tariffs, depending on which side you believe. In addition, the White House has claimed that Japan will invest $550 billion in the U.S., claiming at one point that these funds would be controlled by President Trump himself. (Japan disputes that such an investment will be set up at all.) Meanwhile, Trump gave a recent announcement that any final decision between Washington and Beijing on tariff rates on Chinese goods would be delayed—yet again—for a period of 90 days, an extension of the two superpowers’ trade truce. And the White House has seemingly established at least the outlines of a trade deal with the European Union, though any final and formal agreement seems far off.

This focus on interactions with economic giants and media coverage of big deals (as well as other major stories, including the deployment of the National Guard to Washington D.C.) has overshadowed another aspect of Trump’s tariffs—that high remaining tariffs on some of the poorest countries in Asia (and other parts of the world like Africa), often with no clear reason, have the potential to completely ruin the economies of these already-impoverished states, most of which have no ability to buy more goods from the United States anyway.

On August 7, for instance, tariffs ranging from ten to forty percent kicked in for some of the poorest states in Southeast Asia and Oceania, affecting Laos, Myanmar, Nauru, Papua New Guinea, and Timor-Leste, among others. (Cambodia, another of the region’s poorest states, barely averted higher tariffs by signing a last minute deal agreeing to 19 percent tariffs on exports to the United States.)

Moscow’s Mouthpieces Claim Russia Has Already Won Ahead of Alaska Summit

Paul Goble

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Moscow believes the upcoming Alaska summit will end Russian President Vladimir Putin’s international isolation, taking note of its location in Alaska, which Russia once owned.

Russian commentators are interpreting the summit as U.S. acceptance of Moscow’s view that decisions can be made about Ukraine without Ukraine.

Pro-Kremlin media claim that any outcome of the summit will be advantageous for Moscow: if U.S. President Donald Trump refuses to accept Putin’s terms, Trump will not get the deal he hopes for, but if he does, the gulf between Washington and Europe will deepen.

Since the announcement that Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump will meet in Alaska on August 15, Russian state-controlled media outlets have talked about little else. Moscow commentators, none of them independent, have shown near unanimity. They believe, as the Kremlin likely does, that the bilateral meeting in Alaska is a win for Putin regardless of its outcome. Russian media asserts that the summit will end the international isolation that the West imposed on Putin after his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. They also note that the summit, which is taking place in Alaska—a Russian territory from the mid-18th century until 1867 that remains symbolically important to Russians—has prompted Trump to delay and possibly cancel a new round of sanctions against Russia. Additionally, perhaps most importantly, Russian media suggests that Trump accepts Putin’s view that Russia and the United States can make decisions about Ukraine without Ukraine.

Russian commentators say that no matter how Trump responds to Putin at the meeting on the issue of Ukraine, Putin will gain an additional victory. If the U.S. president refuses to accept Putin’s terms, Trump will not get the deal he craves. If he does accept them, the gulf between Washington and Europe will deepen, a key Russian strategic goal. Because Russian commentators are confident that the Americans are aware of this situation, they suggest that Trump may seek a broader accord to hide Putin’s victory on Ukraine. If a broader accord results, Russian media suggests that Trump will spark Western comparisons to the Yalta Conference of 1945 or even the Munich Conference of 1938, strengthening Putin’s hand in his efforts to reassert Moscow’s status as a superpower as it was during the Cold War.

Russia Goes After Ukraine With Distant Strikes and New Tactics

Marc Santora and Maria Varenikova

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Marc Santora reported from Kyiv, Ukraine, and Maria Varenikova from outside Pokrovsk, in eastern Ukraine. David Guttenfelder and Tyler Hicks reported from Pokrovsk and surrounding towns, as well as the cities of Kharkiv and Sumy.Aug. 9, 2025

Russia has shown no signs of pulling back in its war against Ukraine. Instead, it has intensified its long-range strikes on Ukrainian cities and attacks across the front line. It has also adopted new tactics, military experts say, in the use of drones and small units.

In the midst of all the fighting, on Friday, President Trump said he would meet next week with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in Alaska to try to end the war. He suggested that a peace deal between the two countries could include “some swapping of territories,” signaling that the United States may join Russia in trying to compel Ukraine to permanently cede some of its land.

But even as the Kremlin seeks to use negotiations to lay claim to land it has been unable to win on the battlefield, Russian forces are still trying to push ahead on the ground.

Moscow is betting that, no matter the diplomatic wrangling, it can eventually come out on top in a long war of attrition in which it has both numeric and military superiority.

Russia has been unable to turn small gains on the battlefield into strategic breakthroughs, although it has suffered staggering human losses. For more than a year, its troops have concentrated on Pokrovsk, in eastern Ukraine, with relentless attacks from a large force that has been getting closer.

What to Expect From the Trump-Putin Alaska Summit

Charles A. Kupchan, Liana Fix, and Paul B. Stares

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The August 15 summit at a U.S. air base in Alaska between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump culminates months of diplomatic efforts by the White House to end Europe’s bloodiest conflict since World War II. Trump entered office vowing to end the three-year war swiftly, and he initially focused much of the blame for his peacemaking challenges on Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

However, in recent months Trump has directed more criticism at Putin for relentless and increasingly destructive Russian attacks on Ukraine, setting an early August deadline for Russia to show genuine commitment to a ceasefire or face harsher sanctions. As the deadline approached, Russian and U.S. officials agreed to a bilateral summit to try to reach common ground. Their decision to exclude Zelenskyy from the meeting raised alarm in both Kyiv and European capitals about what sort of deal—and Ukrainian territorial concessions—Putin and Trump could agree to.

Ahead of the summit, CFR asked three fellows who have closely tracked the war to assess the possible best-and worst-case outcomes, as well as what they consider the most realistic scenario and its consequences for European security.

The best summit outcome would be if Trump forges a framework agreement with Putin that can earn the support of Ukraine and NATO allies. Following the Alaska summit, Trump would begin discussing the deal with Zelenskyy and NATO leaders to build a unified transatlantic position that can then serve as the basis for further negotiations with Russia.

Such an agreement would likely have the following elements: A ceasefire in place, potentially including minor land swaps;

Neither Ukraine nor the West would recognize the 20 percent of Ukraine occupied by Russia as Russian territory, but they would agree not to attempt to retake it by force;

Russia would acknowledge that the 80 percent of Ukraine still controlled by Kyiv is a free, sovereign, and independent country. A free Ukraine would have the right to acquire the military capability to defend itself and to choose its future alignment, including European Union membership;

After the Trade War

Michael B. G. Froman

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The global trading system as we have known it is dead. The World Trade Organization has effectively ceased to function, as it fails to negotiate, monitor, or enforce member commitments. Fundamental principles such as “most favored nation” status, or MFN, which requires WTO members to treat one another equally except when they have negotiated free-trade agreements, are being jettisoned as Washington threatens or imposes tariffs ranging from ten to more than 50 percent on dozens of countries. Both the “America first” trade strategy and China’s analogous “dual circulation” and Made in China 2025 strategies reflect a flagrant disregard for any semblance of a rules-based system and a clear preference for a power-based system to take its place. Even if pieces of the old order manage to survive, the damage is done: there is no going back.

Many will celebrate the end of an era. Indeed, although U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive use of tariffs and disregard for past agreements have put the final nails in the coffin, the turn against global trade has been embraced by both Democrats and Republicans in Washington over the past several years. But before critics revel in the death of the rules-based trading system, they should consider the costs and tradeoffs that come with its dismantlement—and think carefully about the elements that should be rebuilt, even if in altered forms, to avert considerably worse outcomes for the United States and the global economy.

If Washington continues on its current course—defined by unilateralism, transactionalism, and mercantilism—the consequences will be grim, especially as Beijing continues on its own damaging course of subsidized excess capacity, predatory export policies, and economic coercion. The risk of the United States and China playing by their own rules, with power the only real constraint, is contagion: if the two largest economies in the world operate outside the rules-based system, other countries will increasingly do the same, leading to rising uncertainty, drags on productivity, and lower overall growth.

Yet clinging to the old system and pining for its restoration would be deluded and futile. Nostalgia is not a strategy; nor is hope. Looking beyond the existing structures does not mean simply accepting a Hobbesian state of nature. The challenge is to create a system of rules outside the rules-based system of old.

Data as Firepower: An Exploration of Data Superiority as a Warfighting Concept

Aaron Bazin, Frankie Zare, William (Will) Julian 

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The battlefield has always been shaped by information. From the scouts of antiquity through today, the side with better knowledge often held the advantage. In today’s operational environment, however, military art has entered a fundamentally new phase—one where data itself has emerged not merely as an enabler but as a key warfighting capability, one that can potentially turn the tide of a battle, operation, or even an entire campaign.

Some projections put the sum total data in the world at 181 Zettabytes and growing at 2.5 quintillion bytes a day. As a result of this exponential growth, the concept of data superiority—the ability to collect, process, and act upon data faster and more effectively than an adversary, bears a deeper investigation. This article argues that data superiority is now essential for achieving tactical and operational advantage and ultimately unlocking strategic success.

The US Army’s vision for 2040 emphasizes achieving decision advantage through enhanced information processing, data-driven insights, and the integration of advanced technologies like AI and autonomous systems. Data superiority and decision advantage are closely related but serve different roles. Data superiority emerges as the critical capability and it is the precursor of decision advantage. Data superiority focuses on the ability to access, move, process, and exploit raw data at speed and scale. Decision advantage enables commanders to consistently make and implement better, faster decisions than the adversary. Simply put, decision advantage can determine operational success, but without data superiority makes decision advantage difficult, if not impossible.

This is because advanced data systems such as AI, autonomous platforms, and real-time targeting tools rely on vast volumes of raw data delivered in real time, and not on processed information. Combined with human judgement, data superiority can enable capabilities to function at machine speed, outpacing adversary decision cycles. It also supports interoperability across joint and coalition forces, improves resilience against cyber and electronic attacks, and allows for decentralized, adaptive responses. As modern conflict increasingly depends on data-rich, fast-moving environments, the ability to control and leverage raw data streams becomes an imperative—making data superiority a prerequisite for achieving information superiority.

The Lessons of History

The Looming Social Crisis of AI Friends and Chatbot Therapists

Derek Thompson

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Last week, I explained How AI Conquered the US Economy, with what might be the largest infrastructure ramp-up in the last 140 years. I think it’s possible that artificial intelligence could have a transformative effect on medicine, productivity, and economic growth in the future. But long before we build superintelligence, I think we’ll have to grapple with the social costs of tens of millions of people—many of them at-risk patients and vulnerable teenagers—interacting with an engineered personality that excels in showering its users with the sort of fast and easy validation that studies have associated with deepening social disorders and elevated narcissism. So rather than talk about AI as an economic technology, today I want to talk about AI as a social technology.

1. But Dr. Chatbot Says I’m Perfect!

Several weeks ago, my wife completed her PhD internship in clinical psychology at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. At the graduation dinner, I spoke with some of her colleagues about how artificial intelligence was affecting their field. One told me that after playing around with ChatGPT for hours, he found the machine to be surprisingly nimble at delivering therapy. He’s not alone. In an August column in the New York Times entitled "I’m a Therapist. ChatGPT Is Eerily Effective,” the psychologist Harvey Lieberman, 81, wrote that OpenAI’s chatbot often stunned him with its insights:

One day, I wrote to it about my father, who died more than 55 years ago. I typed, “The space he occupied in my mind still feels full.” ChatGPT replied, “Some absences keep their shape.” That line stopped me. Not because it was brilliant, but because it was uncannily close to something I hadn’t quite found words for. It felt as if ChatGPT was holding up a mirror and a candle: just enough reflection to recognize myself, just enough light to see where I was headed.

There is no question that large language models, such as ChatGPT, can be stellar at offering practical advice. Imagine, for example, that you are a 45-year-old woman living in a city who suffers from agoraphobia. If you type these precise details with a request — “please structure an exposure therapy treatment in great detail and walk me through some coping mechanisms” — ChatGPT will, in seconds, spit out a plausible treatment plan, complete with suggested mantras, belly breathing instructions, an exposure fear ladder, and a reminder to practice 5-4-3-2-1 grounding to quiet the mind and return one’s focus to bodily sensations (“name 5 things you see, 4 hear, 3 feel, 2 smell, 1 taste”). If you say you’d prefer talk therapy instead, you can text or speak to the bot for hours.