Paul Goble
Central Asian governments have traditionally viewed outmigration as a way to reduce unemployment and provide additional cash flow for the population and government through payments sent home, but the problems this outmigration has led to in Central Asia are gaining more attention.
These problems have become more obvious in recent years, as the social structure in Central Asia and the ways in which people are socialized in these countries has been changing.
Without systematic reforms in the drivers of outmigration, including the economy, the loss of young men to migrant labor, and the separate problems created by their eventual return, will threaten the region’s stability.
The problems Central Asian migrant workers pose for Russia have long caused many in Russia to want them to leave, but the challenges these same people represent for their own countries have not drawn the same attention. Many assume that payments sent home by migrant workers and the positive effects of emigration on Central Asian overpopulation and unemployment make migrant work overwhelmingly positive for Central Asians and their governments (see EDM, May 15, 2024). Even though migrant labor has real mutual benefits for both Russia and Central Asian governments, outmigration also causes serious problems in Central Asia. The loss of large numbers of young men in Central Asia removes fathers and socializers of the younger generation (see EDM, May 9, 2024. As a significant share of these young men return home, in large part due to rising xenophobia in Russia, they will be faced with a changed social landscape and lower incomes (Window on Eurasia, April 3, 2024; see EDM, May 15, 2024). What began as a pressure valve for overpopulation and unemployment in Central Asia may trigger social unrest as migrants return home.
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