TYE GRAHAM and PETER W. SINGER
Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are reshaping modern warfare—from the battlefields of Ukraine to the contested skies over the South China Sea—and spurring Beijing to upgrade its counter-drone capabilities aggressively. Recent demonstrations featuring high-power microwave systems and AI-assisted autonomous interceptors reveal an evolving PLA strategy designed to neutralize mass drone swarms and first-person-view (FPV) attack drones. China now appears to be adopting a multi-layered defense approach that integrates electronic warfare, directed-energy weapons, and AI-driven interception systems, combining both kinetic and non-kinetic solutions.
The successful and varied use of drones in locales ranging from Azerbaijan and Sudan to Ukraine and Israel has exposed clear gaps in traditional air defense systems. Conventional systems, built to target large, fast-moving aircraft have struggled with agile, low-flying, and often massed drones that operate in coordinated swarms. Traditional defenses are also extremely expensive compared to the cost of drones. One U.S. ally shot down a $200 drone with a Patriot missile that costs just over $3 million.
Watching these trends, the PLA has come to the same realization. During its training exercises last summer, countermeasures managed to neutralize only around 40 percent of incoming UAVs. These underwhelming results prompted Chinese military planners to rethink their approach.
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