The IISS has conducted an assessment of the financial costs and defence industrial requirements for NATO-Europe to defend against a future Russian threat without the United States. A US departure would create a ‘window of vulnerability’ for Europe. While much can be done to improve readiness and boost Europe’s industrial capacity – and buying abroad may help increase pace – European allies will face difficult trade-offs in certain capability areas. Indeed, looking to directly replace key parts of the US contribution would amount to approximately USD1 trillion.
The IISS has conducted an independent, open-source assessment of the financial costs and defence industrial requirements for NATO-Europe to defend against a future Russian threat without the United States. Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, its hybrid war against European states, and demands by the Trump administration for European defence autonomy make it imperative for European decision-makers to consider the military, financial and defence industrial investments needed to reduce dependencies on the US and, in extremis, to prepare for a NATO without any US role.
The objective of the study is to inform European policymakers’ thinking about the military, financial and defence industrial implications of closing key military gaps.
To inform the European defence policy debate, the study assumes that by mid-2025 the war in Ukraine has ended with a ceasefire agreement and that the US government has indicated that it will begin the process of withdrawing from NATO. Declaring its need to prioritise the Indo-Pacific theatre, the US also commences to remove equipment, stocks, supplies and military personnel from Europe. The IISS does not assume this scenario to be inevitable, but it is a helpful construct to clarify policy and capability decisions for European governments today.
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