Bill McAllister
There are at least two pertinent lessons from Ukraine that China can apply to its assumed planning for Taiwan. From the 2022 invasion, it’s obvious that much of the international community does not support a military buildup and drawn-out invasion of an independent country. Speed is of the essence. From the 2014 occupation and conquering of Crimea, there is more than one way to exert military power. Using “little green men” was a stroke of military genius that confused the international community long enough to be effective.
China has the manpower to infiltrate Taiwan with sufficient quantity to disable most means to defend Taiwan. This would be a multi-phase plan to infiltrate 50,000 to 100,000 soldiers, possibly less, into Taiwan as businessmen, tourists, laborers, and ship workers with no uniforms. Using basic small arms, grenades, explosives, and possibly rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), small units can take down critical infrastructure, blockade chokepoints, and tie up island defenses. In a Tet Offensive scale of attack model, small units, mission-focused infantry, and special forces can wreak havoc on communications, transportation, command and control, and island defenses.
The second phase, an air campaign to support the forces on the ground, would quickly be followed by a full invasion. Troops and material flown into airfields, possibly airborne troops, and airstrikes would do what the “little green men” could not. Unlike 2014, this phase will be violent. Once the initial assault takes down the Taipei government, it will be nearly impossible for the international community to come to their aid. China will now consider this as an internal security matter, further negating international options to intercede. The initial commando attacks and shaping operations will do the important work of decapitating the government, while the invasion forces from the mainland will consolidate control of the island.
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