Moscow is unwittingly contributing to the rise of Islamism in Dagestan by failing to address social and economic problems and by handing over the region to siloviki who view all protest there as Islamist.
The problems in Dagestan and elsewhere in the North Caucasus are so numerous and complex that the Russian government does not understand them or have the financial and other resources to address them.
These failures mean the Kremlin is producing exactly what the siloviki appear to think already exists, a powerful and often violent Islamist movement that is rapidly acquiring the ability to challenge both Dagestani authorities and Moscow’s control.
Dagestan is an extremely complicated society that faces many problems—some unique to the region and others completely analogous to problems within other federal subjects of the Russian Federation. Both Moscow and those the Kremlin has appointed to manage the North Caucasus, however, primarily view protests in the region as reflecting the expansion of Islamist ideas (Kavkaz Realii, May 6; Window on Eurasia, May 10). The Russian government not only backs but also frequently rewards siloviki (силовики), Russian security forces, who follow this understanding of the region and report success when they use force to crush protests. This decision reflects how complicated the problems in Dagestan are and how deeply the authorities do not understand them. Moscow, especially amid Russian President Vladimir Putin’s expanded war against Ukraine, lacks the resources and attention span to deal with these issues. By responding with force, however, the Putin regime is producing exactly what it has good reason to fear, a powerful and increasingly violent Islamist movement, which may soon be able to challenge the Kremlin-approved Dagestani authorities and Moscow’s control there (see EDM, June 25, August 6, 2024).
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